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The San Jose Sharks will be up against the cap again this summer and with that will come more tough decisions on pending free agents. Melker Karlsson is one of those free agents and though he's spent his entire career with the Sharks, as I'll explain in this article, he shouldn't be brought back next season.
After an impressive rookie season five years ago, there was optimism for what Karlsson could become. However, with Karlsson now nearly 30 years old and experiencing a noticeable decline in production, it’s time that the Sharks part ways with him. Even if he was willing to sign for quite a bit less than his current $2 million AAV and the Sharks could bring him back for under $1 million, San Jose is better off to go to free agency and spend that money on someone who has shown they can still produce in the NHL.
To illustrate his decline in production, here are Karlsson’s goals, points, shots and shot attempts per 82 averages since entering the NHL:
2014-15: 20 goals, 37 points, 155 shots, 269 shot attempts 2015-16: 13 goals, 24 points, 121 shots, 211 shot attempts 2016-17: 13 goals, 27 points, 89 shots, 163 shot attempts 2017-18: 9 goals, 22 points, 88 shots, 164 shot attempts 2018-19: 12 goals, 17 points, 82 shots, 133 shot attempts 2019-20: 8 goals, 16 points, 75 shots, 126 shot attempts
Melker Karlsson has basically been declining (at least in terms of offensive production) since his rookie season. The only time he had more points than in the season previous was in 2016-17, but it took a shooting percentage of 15.1 per cent to do it, plus, that season was the start of his huge drop in shots and shot attempts averages. When you compare his stats from the current season to those of his rookie season, Karlsson was actually less than half as productive in all categories.
Back in 2017, signing Karlsson to his three-year contract made sense though. In the three years before signing his $2M AAV extension, Karlsson’s averages per 82 games were:
15 goals, 29 points, 119 shots, 210 shot attempts
In the three years since signing that extension, however, his averages per 82 games have been:
10 goals, 18 points, 82 shots, 141 shot attempts
It’s pretty clear that Karlsson isn’t really the same player at this point and his possession stats back that up too. Karlsson’s 45.1 corsi for percentage was the worst on the team amongst skaters who had played at least 20 games this season. This wasn’t an isolated stat either, as in 2018-19, Karlsson ranked third-worst in corsi for percentage amongst Sharks skaters to play at least 20 games.
Next season, the Sharks need to be more intentional about each player they keep on their roster. The only players remaining should be those that have shown they can still produce or those that can develop into a player that can produce down the road. Unfortunately, Melker Karlsson doesn’t fit into either of those two categories.
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Here’s today’s poll question (results and discussion will be posted tomorrow):
Sharks will reportedly sign goaltender Alexei Melnichuk What would the Sharks do with a compliance buyout? Reviewing this week's polls (May 3): Sharks Edition Sharks sign Handemark and Melnichuk Reviewing Doug Wilson's success with late-round draft picks