The initial response to the Sens Marketplace series has been really positive, so I’m excited to be continuing it with tonight’s blog. Thank you to everyone who stopped by to vote on the last proposed trade between the Ottawa Senators and Florida Panthers. The result was incredibly close. Before jumping into the next deal with the Tampa Bay Lightning, here is a summary of the Panthers deal: The Proposed Trade To Florida: Nick Paul (RFA) To Ottawa: Brett Connolly Poll Summary: Do the Senators accept this trade? Yes – (51/49) Do the Panthers accept this trade? No – (50.1/49.9)
Trade Result: REJECTED
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Tonight’s trade between the Lightning and Senators raises the stakes, as the pieces involved are far more valuable than those in the Panthers deal.
The Trade To Tampa Bay: New York Islanders 2020 1st Round Draft Pick, New York Islanders 2020 2nd Round Pick To Ottawa: Mikhail Sergachev (RFA)
Why the Lightning Make the Trade… CapFriendly shows the Lightning as having 15 roster players for next year, with a projected cap hit of $76.2M. There’s simply not a lot of room for them to get all their restricted free agents signed while filling out the balance of the roster. Like they did last summer when they dealt J.T. Miller to the Vancouver Canucks, the Bolts are going to have to make a meaningful move or two this summer to fit under the cap.
Trading Sergachev’s rights is one of the few moves that Tampa can make without getting into no-trade or no-move clause conversations, something the organization has been reluctant to do over the last few seasons. While nobody wants to lose a quality, quality piece like Sergachev, long-term contracts being in place for Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh, plus the emergence of Erik Cernak and prospects like Cal Foote, suggest that the Lightning’s blue line would be able to weather the storm.
Beyond the cap savings, this deal also helps the Lightning to recover draft picks, having moved a number of them at the trade deadline. With the season suspended, there is no guarantee that the Lightning will be in a position to even play playoff games after pushing all-in with the acquisitions of Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow. Making those moves with no opportunity to generate a return on investment this year would be devastating. Adding back a first-round pick and a supplemental second-round pick could help to ease that pain.
Why the Senators Make the Trade… The Senators have a number of high-profile defensive prospects, including Lassi Thomson, Erik Brannstrom, and Jacob Bernard-Docker, which makes the idea of trading for a young defenseman a little bit counter-intuitive. However, there’s no guarantee that any or all of those players will be ready next season or even the year after that. Sergachev gives the Senators a player who is more than ready to compete now, while also being young enough to be in his prime when the team’s core is ready to compete. It also provides Ottawa with some flexibility to deal from a position of strength within that crop of prospects to fill other needs... (hint, hint)
Adding Sergachev to a blue line that already includes Thomas Chabot would instantly up the team’s mobility and puck-moving quotients. The Senators are going to need that if they get the opportunity to add a player like Alexis Lafreniere or Quinton Byfield at this year’s draft. Moreover, Sergachev taking up a spot likely eliminates the potential for a Ron Hainsey extension, which would obviously be good for the Senators’ chances of succeeding on the ice. It would also free the team up to take the best forwards available at the top of the draft, without feeling pressure to draft for position.
The final wrinkle in this trade is that the Senators can use offer sheet compensation requirements to twist Tampa’s arm. Assuming that this year’s compensation brackets will be materially similar to last year, the Senators could sign Sergachev to a contract with a cap hit of approximately $6.34M without having to compensate the Lightning with more than a first-round pick and third-round pick. The threat of forcing Tampa to match an offer of that amount, especially considering comparables like Charlie McAvoy’s extension in Boston and Tampa’s tight cap situation, could benefit Ottawa in this negotiation. This trade gives Tampa a better return than an offer sheet would provide, but also lets Ottawa keeps the RFA dollars lower.
Think of it as J-G Pageau for Mikhail Sergachev.
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As always, thanks for reading.