After releasing my NHL-wide predictions the other day, now I wanted to focus more on some Senators predictions. One of the easiest ways to predict how the season will go is to take some over/under’s on the season that I have set. It’s not a perfect science, but I think the numbers that I have set are fair. Here they are:
1. Brady Tkachuk points: 34.5---Over
I think anything over this should be considered a successful rookie season. I’m not expecting him to light up the league and win the Calder, but I think somewhere in the 35-40 point range with an edge to his game is certainly possible. I don’t think that’s the type of player he will end up being, but this will be a good starting point.
After that, he should only get better.
2. Craig Anderson SV%: .908%---Over Predicting over .908% isn’t exactly high praise, but something around .910% would still be a massive improvement over his .898% mark last year. During his time in Ottawa, he sits at .917% in 351 games, which is probably higher than most people realize. He definitely showed signs of ageing last year, and a 37-year-old goalie doesn’t inspire much confidence. I don’t think he’s going to have an above-average season, but I do think that he won’t be a tire fire like he was last year.
And in a season where they desperately need to win to avoid giving up a lottery pick, that will be a welcomed change.
3. Matt Duchene GP in Ottawa: 62.5---Under
The trade deadline is after the 62nd game, so if you pick the over here, you think that Duchene will be either re-signing or walking as a UFA in the summer. I shouldn’t expect many good things to happen, and I honestly have no idea where Duchene’s head is right now in regards to if he wants to stay or not. Lots can change from now until the trade deadline, but I’m going to say that he ends up getting traded after he indicates his unwillingness to stay. And if that happens, it will make the initial Turris trade even worse.
4. Cody Ceci +/-: -24.5---Under
Okay, yes +/- is a garbage stat, but it is sometimes interesting to look at when you see the extremes at both ends. Ceci has had an average of -7 in his five seasons, and last year he ended the year at a whopping -27. He was second on the team in ice-time while averaging 23:20 each game, and with Erik Karlsson gone, that number has the potential to skyrocket.
Ceci will be “the guy… on the backend, and the thought of that is horrifying. He will be leading the team in ice-time, and the Senators have an even worse roster than last season. More ice time for him will equal more goals against, and there’s a good chance he ends up dead last in plus/minus at around -30 or even worse.
5. Powerplay rank: 23.5---Under (as in worse)
Here are the Senators league-wide powerplay rankings since 2009-10: 21st, 15th, 11th, 20th, 14th, 22nd, 26th, 23rd, 27th. They have had two slightly above average powerplays, but the rest have been god-awful for a long time. They have had talented players on their team in the past, but for whatever reason, they haven’t been able to produce. I mainly blame the coaching staff, and this season the same coaches are returning.
Therefore, despite special teams having some randomness to it, I have no reason to expect their powerplay to be any better than 24th in the league. There’s a chance that their rookies are able to change things, but the loss of Karlsson and Hoffman is probably too large to overcome. Plus even with those two Ottawa was putrid on the man advantage anyway.
6. Mark Stone points: 67.5----Over
Stone’s career high in points is 64, although last year he was phenomenal with 62 points in just 58 games. If the Senators didn’t tear down their team, I see no reason why he wouldn’t be able to be close to a point per game player this season. Even with limited options playing alongside him though, I think Stone can hit 70 points on the nose this year.
He took his game to a new level last year, and he isn’t somebody that necessarily needs quality teammates to succeed---just look at the contract he helped Zack Smith get. Stone is one of the best wingers in the game, and even on an awful team, I’m expecting big things from him once again. I just hope that those big things happen while he is wearing a Senators jersey.
7. Players on active roster traded: 2.5---Over
Stone and Duchene are two obvious candidates to be moved, but there are also other players like Bobby Ryan and Zack Smith who have been on the trading block. Furthermore, Chris Wideman could be an intriguing trade deadline acquisition for a cup-hunting team, plus there could be a surprise move or two mixed in there. After years of hardly having any trades, the Senators will probably continue to be even more active for a second straight season.
I can easily see there being three or four trades before the deadline, mainly because Eugene Melnyk has made it clear that the payroll needs to be slashed.
8. Team points: 71.5---Over
The Senators had 67 points last year, and despite them getting rid of some of their best players like Erik Karlsson, Mike Hoffman, and Derick Brassard, I think they will get a few more points this year. I certainly don’t think they are a better team, but hockey is an incredibly random sport, and Ottawa is due for a few bounces their way.
If Craig Anderson and Mike Condon just play slightly below average rather than unplayable, all of a sudden that gives the team 3-5 extra wins. I’m not saying that they will be a playoff team or even a challenger for a playoff spot, but I could see them finishing in the mid-to-high 70s. For reference, 77 points were good for 24th overall last season, in line to pick 8th overall. Who needs 8th overall picks anyway?
What do you think of all of these? Over or under?