Those who fail history are doomed to repeat it. Every year we hear bloggers and reporters alike discuss that GMs have learned they can't overpay in free agency and every year that turns out to be completely false. New reports are out that the rangers are offering Barclay Goodrow who is 28 and has never scored more than 8 goals a 6 year deal worth 3.6 million a year.
Hearing #NYR have made significant progress with newly acquired forward Barclay Goodrow.
— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) July 19, 2021
Not finalized. Expectation is Goodrow will be a Blueshirt once the signing moratorium is lifted with a 6-year deal in $3.6m AAV range. @DFOHockey
The Zack Hyman market is exploding with some suggesting he could get offered a 7 year deal with an annual cap hit of 6 million or more. These deals would take these players up to being 37 or 38 years old and buyout candidates as early as three years into their deals. It's absolutely insane, especially with a flat cap and no certainty on when that will grow, or by how much.
Edmonton has some crucial roster needs; a top six left winger, a third line centre, a goalie, and a right shot defenseman if Larsson does not return. Those are some critical holes and Edmonton has limited cap space to address them all. Holland has done well in free agency with Edmonton over the past two seasons. He hasn't overpaid to bring players in and has avoided term. Guys like Kahun, Barrie, Ennis, Shore, Haas, Nygard, Smith and others have all performed to varying degrees but none of them broke the bank or are hurting the team now. Part of that is because of the cap constraints Edmonton had in those years so that it was nearly impossible to spend too much. We are already seeing what happens when the Oilers have extra space (Duncan Keith).
The Oilers should be competing for Cups over the next 6+ years with McDavid and Draisaitl locked up long term. Overpaying for Hyman might help the team for a couple seasons but it will hurt them greatly down the road.
The alternative is looking at making trades with the Seattle Kraken. In about 48 hours, Seattle GM Ron Francis will be announcing his selections from each team. The Kraken are going to want to be competitive early to entice fans but also build smart for the future.
This is where Edmonton could step in, offering picks or prospects to in turn have Seattle select a certain player to then trade to the Oilers. Here are just a few examples:
- van Riemsdyk is overpaid but if the Kraken agreed to retain a couple million dollars in salary than he could be an excellent winger for a couple seasons in the Oilers top six. - Add Jason Zucker from Pittsburgh or even someone like Andreas Johnsson from the Devils as a solid middle six scoring option - Edmonton wants a better third line centre? Jared McCann, J.T. Compher or Colton Sissons would all fit the bill with the latter two both being right hand shots. - Want to push Kailer Yamamoto down to a third line role? Jordan Eberle, Josh Bailey, or Donskoi would all be excellent right wingers as well. - Losing Larsson? Dylan DeMelo is a very strong and responsible defender who could eat up a bunch of minutes with either Nurse or Keith.
Not all of these are perfect fits or as enticing as the next couple years of a Hyman, Coleman or some of the other free agency options. However, especially if Seattle retains on some of the deals, it gives Edmonton a bit more cost certainty. I would rather have Jason Zucker for the next two seasons until he is 31 as opposed to Hyman signed to 2027 at 37 years of age.
The trouble here for Edmonton is a number of their draft picks are already tied up. The second and third round pick next summer being tied up because of the Keith trade makes things especially difficult. In addition, some of the prospects Seattle would likely want are the guys that Edmonton wants to replace the guys they are acquiring in the next couple seasons. It would have to be a balancing act between being competitive now and building a successful franchise.
With Neal, Kassian, Koskinen, and Turris on the books, the Oilers already have over 12 million tied up in bad contracts. Even if Holland manages to trade some of those deals this off-season, replacing them with new bad contracts is not the way to build a team.
Thanks for reading