One way or another, it looks like Zack Hyman is going to be an Edmonton Oiler. Reports are in that Zack Hyman has agreed to options for both 7 and 8 year deals with the Edmonton Oilers. The reported 8 year option would be closer to 5 million dollars while the 7 year deal might be closer to 5.25 million dollars. If Edmonton is making this deal official now it would likely be because they are trading the Toronto Maple Leafs for his rights.
I did a coin toss to decide whether or not to discuss the good news or the bad news first and I flipped and my coin fell under the couch and I was sad so here is the bad news.
BAD NEWS Hyman just turned 29 years old so a seven or eight year deal is going to take the player to the age of 35 or 36 respectively. That's a long contract and the likelihood of Hyman remaining a top six producer for that entire time is highly unlikely. Four or five years from now this deal could fall into the Lucic, Backes, Eriksson, Neal level of bad contracts. This is made exponentially more likely because of the physical game that Hyman plays as well as the previous injuries he has had, most notably his knee which he underwent surgery for. Typically players who play this kind of game can fall off dramatically once they enter their 30's. The worst case scenario is the Oilers maybe get one good year out of Hyman before he starts performing more like a third line player than a top six forward.
GOOD NEWS First I will let Leafs super fan and highly knowledgeable individual Steve "Dangle" speak
Oilers fans - Zach Hyman is a gem. Truly. The Leafs organization has adored him and held him up as a standard since he was in the AHL. He’s a smart, no-quit warrior, a penalty-killer, capable net front guy, and has scored at a 33 and 28-goal pace in each of the past two seasons.
— Steve “Dangle… Glynn (@Steve_Dangle) July 22, 2021
Hyman's best scoring season did come after his knee injury and surgery so Oilers fans shouldn't be holding their breath on his ability to produce yet. The numbers also show Hyman is far more than just a passenger on Matthews line. Hyman has shown consistently that he is able to generate his own offense. The xGF% for the likes of Matthews and Tavares were bumped up when playing with Hyman as opposed to playing without him.
Kassian and Archibald are physical players who benefitted from playing with McDavid and were able to use their toolkit to score some goals. Patrick Maroon remains the best fit to date with McDavid who was able to be a physical presence while finding ways to get into the right spots on the ice. Zack Hyman is a better player than any of those guys. The Oilers top six is far better with him in it.
Lastly while the NHL is dealing with a flat cap right now, the should begin to grow in the next four or five years which should make the fallout of a potential decline in Hyman's play easier to stomach.
Right now here is how I would set up the Oilers current roster, factoring in the holes I believe they need to address.
Hyman-McDavid-Puljujarvi RNH-Draisaitl-Yamamoto ____-______-Kassian Neal-McLeod-Archibald Shore
Nurse-Bear Keith-_____ Russell-Bouchard
Smith Koskinen
It's looking like Mike Smith has accepted a deal with the Edmonton Oilers, a two year deal worth 2 million per season. With Klefbom on LTIR and Turris in the minors, the Edmonton Oilers have roughly 9.5 million dollars in cap space to address these holes in the roster. The most pressing now becomes a right shot defenseman to replace Adam Larsson and a fantastic name has presented itself as a possibility.
Frank Seravalli who almost single handedly released the Kraken roster has listed the Edmonton Oilers as a dark horse candidate for right shot defenseman Dougie Hamilton. Hamilton is the full package; a huge defenceman who defends extremely well, logs big minutes and is an excellent producer not only on the PP but one of the best defensemen in the league at producing at 5 on 5. Losing Larsson but replacing him with Dougie Hamilton would result in an upgrade on the Oilers blue line.
Assuming for a moment Hamilton is indeed interested in Edmonton, can the Oilers afford it? Let's go to the high end and say the Oilers offer Hamilton a seven year deal worth 8 million dollars. Edmonton could make that deal work and have just over 1.5 million remaining in cap space. Technically they can do it but it leaves them with almost nothing left in cap space to do anything else or address other contracts in the future.
Listening to the rumours and reports though, two things seem very likely. Zack Kassian is going to be traded, and the Oilers are going to buyout Mikko Koskinen. Suddenly Edmonton has just under 8 million in cap space to find a third line centre, a goalie, and maybe one more depth scoring forward. If they buyout Neal as well, suddenly they have just under 12 million in cap space.
Holland has overpaid and made blunders this summer, there is no denying that. If the end result is having a roster with Hyman and Hamilton as additions than the Oilers will at the very least be competitive for the next four seasons. It's going to be an exciting and terrifying summer for Oilers fans.