My take on the McDonagh/Miller trade and moves to date by GM Jeff Gorton (rangers)

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My take on the McDonagh/Miller trade and moves to date by GM Jeff Gorton

By Jan Levine

Feb 26, 2018 • 9:21 pm

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The Rangers completed the first portion of their rebuild with a blockbuster trade. After making three smaller deals, New York and Tampa completed a trade with a minute to go on the clock. The Blueshirts are a vastly different team then they were a week ago in terms of talent on the parent club ice but especially in the farm and system. Jim Dolan basically ordered the rebuild, paving the way for this deal and driving the others already made and what might happen before the draft.

Rumors had swirled around McDonagh, less so to Miller, but each had been known to be potentially available. The recent treatment of McDonagh, capped with his non-appearance at the Jean Ratelle retirement ceremony, to me is a black eye on what's usually a very classy organization. While McDonagh's play had slipped, partially due to injuries, which has unfortunately a major component of his production drop. But the bigger keys was that McDonagh's value was the highest now with two potential playoff runs and his pending UFA status after next season, when his current six-year deal with a $4.7 million AAV expires. A separation was necessary because of that aforementioned treatment, resulting in McDonagh joining his former mates - Ryan Callahan, Anton Stralman and Dan Girardi - with Miller to create Rangers south.

Memories:

Miller never could get out of coach Alain Vigneault's doghouse, as AV tried to iron out the defensive play deficiencies in his game. Despite the tough love treatment, Miller still had 22 goals and 34 assists last season and 13 goals with 27 assists this year. Miller is a two-way player, able to take the body, evidenced by 100+ hits each of the last two seasons and on pace for that number again. In addition, he was a solid passer, who was hampered by moving between center and winger. Miller, Kevin Hayes and Ryan Spooner, who came in the Nash deal, all are similar players. Miller though was more of a shoot-first player, but could dish the puck, which is why I thought a third line trio with those three made sense. A component of Miller's inclusion is his RFA status. Miller bet on himself by signing a two-year deal with a $2.7 million AAV after the 2015-16 season. he should reap the benefits getting at least $4 mil per season on his next deal.

When you coupled this trade with the movement of Nick Holden, Michael Grabner and Rick Nash, the current squad is materially different. The goal the rest of the season will be to see what the younger players have and who can be part of the future. In addition, as upsetting as this is to admit, potentially improving draft position is also a goal, though, as we have seen, finishing in a spot in the standings is no guarantee that's where you will pick.

The return for McDonagh and Miller was Vladislav Namestnikov, Libor Hajek, Brett Howden, a first-round pick in the 2018 NHL Draft, and a conditional first-round pick in the 2019 NHL Draft. Viewpoints vary on the quality of that haul, as New York clearly got quantity. I will say that votes are mixed.

Namestnikov, also an RFA after the season, is making $1.9375 million and in line for a decent raise after the season, though his salary will likely be below what Miller makes. He scored 35 points as a rookie but dropped to 28 last season., This year, skating with Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov, Namestnikov, who is a bit undersized at 5'11' and 185 pounds, has posted 20 goals and 24 assists, but slowed after a hot start. Is Namestnikov's rise in production solely due to line placement and the talent with whom he played or has he truly taken a stop forward in his third year? The answer to that is what gives me some pause, because I think it's the former and not the latter.

The original rumor had Tyler Johnson in the deal, and I am relatively happy that isn't the case, as Johnson is due to make $5 mil each of the next six seasons. Namestnikov may have more offensive talent that Miller, but he is one-dimensional, while Miller plays more of a two-way game. As an RFA and part of the Rangers' depth down the middle, which also is new, the Rangers could make Namestikov part of the future or trade him this summer to fill other needs or stockpile more picks. For now, he will slot into the Rangers #2 center position behind Mika Zibanejad and ahead of Kevin Hayes.

In terms of prospects, Tampa Bay had a king's ransom. My first target was Brayden Point, thought I knew that was a pipe dream, Second was Mikhail Sergachev, who I thought would come back in any deal for McDonagh and especially McDonagh-plus. Others that might have been part of the deal could have been Taylor Raddysh, Cal Foote, Boris Katchouk and Anthony Cirelli, but the Rangers went for Howden and Hajek.

New York, GM Jeff Gorton, appears to have opted for quantity over quantity. That's not to say he didn't get good prospects but maybe didn't get elite ones. I was hoping for a home run, and think he may have hit a double or triple, for a B or maybe a B+ rating, but not an A. That's in line with the other deals he made, but with Miller and McDonagh going, I was hoping for more or maybe at least more elite. But the direction of this team is clear, as it's a rebuild. Unknown is the timeframe associated with the rebuild and when the expected move back up the ladder will occur.

Opinions on the prospects vary:

"No difference maker in that group," Craig Button said. "Howden is a solid hard working player. Hajek is a solid type 'D' who is not a top 3 IMO."

Corey Pronman wrote the below, but his viewpoint was that none of the TB prospects were elite. He didn't have any in his top-50 prospects ratings after the WJC, slotting all of the prospects from 51 and up. Howden would have been towards the top of that Lightning list.

Libor Hajek, D, New York Rangers (from Tampa Bay): Hajek isn’t an incredibly flashy type of defender, but he skates well, moves the puck reasonably well and is very reliable defensively in a pro frame. He was one of the top defensemen at the recent world juniors in terms of his two-way play, being an anchor for the Czech Republic. I have questions about his ultimate upside. I don't see him as an impact player in the NHL, but he could be a middle of the lineup type of player, realistically more of a 4-5 type of defender.

Brett Howden, C, New York Rangers (from Tampa Bay): Per one NHL source I talked to in the past few weeks about Howden, a first-round pick by Tampa two years ago, “the question with him is whether he's a No. 2 or a No. 3 center.… I lean to the latter as of now. He's a very smart two-way center, who can make plays, win battles and be trusted on both special teams. It's fair to say his speed and skill are not high-end, but both of those attributes are decent/fine. He's a fine mid-tier prospect.

Greg Wyshinski gave Tampa Bay an A- while New York received an A. He wrote about the two prospects:

The Rangers coveted Libor Hajek here, and rightfully so: a second-round pick in 2016 for the Lightning, he's played in the WHL for the past three seasons and looks like a promising two-way defenseman at 20 years old. Howden was drafted No. 27 overall in 2016 and has also spent the last three seasons in the WHL. He has 58 points in 38 games with Moose Jaw this season.

From the Draft Analyst:

The hope has to be that Howden depends into a big, second line center. serving a similar role to Derek Stepan while playing a different type of a game and Hajek fulfills the projection of a top-four blue liner opposite a puck moving defenseman. Tampa's depth on the parent club and farm allowed both to be moved, as Howden would be behind Stamkos, point and Johnson while Hajek as a left-handed d-man is looking up at Victor Hedman and Segarchev. The Rangers looked to value character and leadership skills in their acquisitions. In addition, with all the defensemen coming back, including Lindgren, Rykov and O'Gara, added to Day and Zborovskiy, the draft focus is likely to be on forwards.

With obtaining Namestnikov, the Rangers now have Zib, Nam, Hayes, Anderssson, Chytil, Nieves and Howden down the middle. Not all are here now and not all will be here next season. But what was a weakness now has become a mild strength, though the arguments of lacking a true #1 still very likely apply. That could come in the draft. Forwards within the system that may make a difference if the future could be Ty Ronning and maybe Ryan Gropp, so as you see, the defense, and that doesn't even include names like De'Angelo, Gilmour and Pionk, has much more depth than the offense. One area of need is right-handed d-men, as the organization currently only has Shattenkirk, D'Angelo, Pionk, Kampfer, Sproul and Nanne.

That draft will be a key and ratchets up the pressure on Gord Clark., By acquiring Boston and Tampa's first rounders, New York now has three picks in the first round. The Rangers' own will be in the top-10 and how high remains to be seen. Imagine one of Dahlin, Zadina, Svetchnikov or Tkachuk drafted by the franchise. Anywhere in the top-10 will be good, but these four could prove to be franchise players. The extra picks allow New York to move up, or if they luck out, then use those picks, dependent on where Boston and Tampa finish - root for Boston to lose by the second round and oddly enough, Tampa to win it all - to add talent, as St. Louis did last year with Thomas and Kostin. Clark must wisely use the picks or the rebuild/retool will fail to meet expectations and replenish the system for whenever the step forward begins. in addition, part of the deal is a conditional ’19 second-rounder which becomes a first if Tampa Bay wins the Stanley Cup in 2018 or ‘19, adding to the coffers within the system.

Right now, 2018-19 looks to be a lost year. With Mats Zuccarelllo - the likely future captain - heading into his final year of his deal in that season, Zucc could be moved. If NY keeps him and Chris Kreider, extends offers to Hayes or Spooner, rather than moving them, gets production for Andersson and/or Chytil, growth from Buch and health/production from Zib along with solid if not big name (JT or Ilya to name two) free agent signings, using the available cap room created by these deals and uptick in the cap, maybe the team moves forward quicker than expected. That also depends on what Brady Skjei, who has had a disappointing year shows, the same for a hopefully healthy Shattenkirk, the presence of Marc Staal and maybe an unexpected rebound - if he is in NY - of Brandon Smith and and how the remainder of the kids, noted above, on the current roster pan out. That's a lot of ifs and maybes to count on within one season.

Gorton opted to tear down rather than mildly rebuild. It's not yet a full tear down, since pieces like Zucc and Kreider plus other remain. But the three deals prior to today and the big behemoth trade at the deadline has created a clear path forward for New York. The remainder of this season will be rough. But those hoping for a whole new foundation rather than slapping paint on or patching holes, you got your wish. Just be prepared for a painful path forward until the rebuild is complete and the seeds of reward from this move take fruit.

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