Keeping Up with a Jones (blackhawks)

blackhawks

Keeping Up with a Jones

By Theo Fox

May 31, 2021 • 3:40 am

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What is a true #1 defenseman, though? A #1 typically plays the most minutes of all skaters on the team and is adept at playing both ends yet is predominantly stellar defensively with capacity to flip the ice consistently. Also, a #1 tends to play in all situations.

Enter Seth Jones. Over the weekend, Jones made it known that he doesn't plan on re-signing with the Blue Jackets once he becomes an unrestricted free agent. He has one year left on his current 6-year contract at $5.4M and is due a major pay raise on his next deal.

Jones would fill the need in Chicago for a #1 blueliner. Even though he would replace Keith as the #1 on the team, his persona and style are more similar to Keith's former partner Brent Seabrook: big, physical, strong skater, booming shot, and defensively conscience.

However, should the Hawks pursue Jones? If the NHL didn't have a salary cap and if the team wasn't rebuilding, the short answer is yes. By all means, do what it takes to obtain then re-sign one of the best blueliners in the league. Jones will garner a substantial return.

However, the cap is projected to be flat until further notice and the Hawks are on the front end of a rebuild. Would Jones be affordable and not handcuff the team financially? The season after Jones becomes a UFA is when Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, and Keith do, too.

Jones is currently ranked 46th for defensemen salaries and is poised to earn a new contract to put him in the top 10. It may be doubtful he gets the $11M per year that Erik Karlsson and Drew Doughty each receive from the Sharks and Kings as the two highest paid D-men.

With $11M likely the price ceiling, Jones more realistically gets what his peers in the rest of the top 10 get: Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, and Alex Pietrangelo at $9M or Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Thomas Chabot, Jacob Trouba, Brent Burns, and John Carlson at $8M.

As for term, 6-8 years seems probable depending on which team trades for and signs Jones. And that's the kicker: this transaction is a two parter with the trade then re-signing him long-term or else why give up assets for a rental, especially by a non-contender like the Hawks.

As referenced earlier, a trade package to acquire Jones would be pretty hefty and there will be a bidding war. A guess at a possible package likely includes a combination of a 1st round pick, other high draft picks, blue-chip prospects, and/or all-star roster players.

Could a Chicago package like this get a deal done:

* Dominik Kubalik * Adam Gaudette (rights) * Ian Mitchell * 2021 1st round pick * 2021 2nd round pick

Too little? Too much?

Worth it? Not worth it?

Perfectly sane? Looney tunes crazy?

The NHL draft lottery is this week so there's a slim chance the Hawks win it to select 1st overall. If that happens, would they pick Owen Power who is touted to be a future #1 defenseman? Does that change the decision-making calculus on whether to pursue Jones?

Let's make believe that the Hawks did acquire Jones with that above trade package. Jones would help with more appropriate slotting on the blueline so that Keith doesn't need to shoulder the load as the top defender and the youngsters can develop with a true #1 in the fold.

Kalynuk - Jones Keith - Boqvist Stillman - Murphy Beaudin

This scenario assumes Calvin de Haan and Nikita Zadorov are with new teams next season otherwise the blueline gets crowded with veterans and edges out all of the youth which would completely derail the youth movement. Just as ideas on how to move out de Haan and Zadorov:

* Trade de Haan to the Red Wings for a 2020 4th round pick * Trade Zadorov (rights) to the Bruins for Jake DeBrusk

As the above scenario alludes to, the timing of a blockbuster trade and re-signing of an elite player at this point in the rebuild may not be favorable if other personnel decisions aren't made to ensure the youth movement is still a priority and not thrown out the window.

One last factor to keep in mind is that Jones has a modified no-trade clause which means he submits a list of 10 teams that he cannot be traded to. It's unknown whether the Blackhawks are on this list. If they are, all of the above is moot about Jones but not about needing a true #1 defenseman.

Rockford Updates

Matt Tomkins

With Tomkins gone and Delia's status debatable, the new Rockford goalie tandem is likely Cale Morris and Arvid Soderblom with Tom Aubrun as 3rd string. Since Morris and Aubrun are on AHL deals and Soderblom is on an NHL one, Soderblom is the only one eligible for recall.

Moberg & Laavainen

Moberg is a no-frills, defense-first blueliner. He protects the net, plays physical, skates relatively well, makes a solid pass to clear the zone, and gets shots on net. He may be nothing more than an injury recall candidate to fill the 6/7 spot for the Hawks.

As for Laavainen, he hasn't moved the needle since being drafted. No one would notice if the Hawks didn't sign him. The same goes for defender Joshua Ess and winger Parker Foo. At most Ess could get an amateur tryout. Foo is in the KHL with older brother Spencer.

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Prospect Updates

Lukas Reichel

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NHL Entry Draft

This Wednesday is the draft lottery to determine the selection order for the first 16 picks in the 1st round of the 2021 NHL Draft. The Blackhawks have the 12th seed which has a 2.7% chance of winning the lottery to select 1st overall for the first time since 2007.

More draft lottery thoughts and reflections are coming up in blogs later this week. As the actual draft approaches on July 23-24, expect blogs featuring draftees for the Hawks to consider at whatever spot they draw during this week's draft lottery.

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See you on the boards!

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