Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Winnipeg Jets:
1. Keep things 5v5. The Jets are not a good 5v5 team. They’re controlling just 48% of the expected goals during that gamestate. By comparison, Calgary sits at over 54%. The discrepancy between the two has shown in previous meetings, as Calgary’s xG share sits a hair under 55% in four games against Winnipeg on the year. They’re getting the better of the chances and, though P.L. Dubois' presence should help, I don’t see expect that to change. The Flames figure to get the better of the Jets at full-strength, so they’d do well to keep the game there. No lazy penalties. No selfish penalties. Cut out the garbage and they’ll have a real shot at picking up another important two points.
2. Shorthanded magic. Winnipeg gives up a lot of chances on the man advantage. Only Colorado and Anaheim are allowing high-danger looks at a higher rate. While Calgary has yet to really find their offensive groove on the PK this season, they’ve traditionally been quite good at generating offense in undermanned situations. Mikael Backlund and Mark Giordano, in particular, are among the shorthanded goal/point leaders over the last few seasons. I think the Jets are still adjusting to PP life without Patrik Laine, and that can lead to hiccups. Look for the Flames to try and pounce.
3. Make some noise. There’s a lot of it surrounding Sam Bennett off the ice; not much on it. He has just two points through 10 games – good for 14th on the team – and his on-ice metrics are poor across the board. He actually ranks dead last on the team in Corsi For%. If he doesn’t step up and find a way to contribute, he’s not going to get the trade he wants because. Simply put, there won’t be much of a market given the way he is playing.
4. Hold the fort. Jacob Markstrom was given a fat contract to stabilize the Flames’ goaltending position. He has done that in spades thus far. We’re still dealing with small samples, obviously, but Markstrom ranks 5th among starters in Goals Saved Above Average, per NaturalStatTrick. He has been rock solid despite, at times, the Flames falling asleep at the wheel for *long* stretches of play. Calgary needs that to continue while they sort things out offensively.
5. A dynamic duo. Andrew Copp and Nik Ehlers find themselves on the top line with Mark Scheifele. There is a reason for that (beyond their defensive and play-driving prowess). Ehlers (13th) and Copp (18th) both rank inside the top-20 in scoring chances at 5v5. Neither player is large in stature but their speed and tenacity allow them to constantly generate shots in dangerous areas of the ice. The Flames’ defense best be ready to box out with purpose. If the effort and urgency isn’t there, those guys are going to get to their spots; much like we see with Andrew Mangiapane on most nights.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com Recent posts: