The first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs are the absolute best. We lose the bottom dwellers and are treated to nightly action with the best remaining teams in the league. There is literally something for every hockey fan while the 16 teams battle it out to become eight.
There are a lot of variables and variance in the sport of hockey, but I am going to try and sift through all the information to make some sense of the first round matchups. Here’s a quick look at each series.
Washington vs Toronto
The Toronto Maple Leafs make their return to the playoffs after a number of years watching from home. They have one of the strongest rookie classes of forwards that have come through in some time. The trio of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander are wonderful to watch on a nightly basis. Will they be enough to defeat the Washington Capitals?
On one hand they help drive the Maple Leafs in being one of the top five teams in CF/60. On the other hand the team is also a bottom five team in CA/60. The Leafs play high event hockey. They live by the sword and they die by the sword. Some of the more conservative teams might be reluctant to get in a track meet with the Leafs. The Capitals don’t fit that description. Washington was the best team in the regular season and they have the horses to play high event hockey and they have the talent to make sure the high events are in their favor.
Sometimes a lesser team can get by on goaltending, but the problem for Toronto is that Braden Holtby is one of the best postseason goaltenders of all-time.
braden holtby's career postseason sv% is .937.
— ryan lambert (@twolinepass) April 6, 2017
no one talks about this.
That is currently the best save percentage in the history of the NHL during the postseason.
It is likely that Washington controls the flow of these games and when Toronto does get their chances they could be thwarted by top level goaltending. This is an uphill battle for the Maple Leafs. Toronto could have faced Ottawa if they earned a single point against Columbus in the regular season finale. They are going to wish they had. I do think this has the potential to give us some of the more entertaining hockey if Washington embraces Toronto’s style of play and masters it themselves.
I’m disappointed that Toronto will likely be one and done. They are a fun and entertaining team to watch.
I have Washington moving on. I believe Washington is the favorite for the Stanley Cup.
New York vs Montreal
This is a battle between two goaltending icons. Henrik Lundqvist is a top five goaltender of all-time who is in the twilight of his career. He isn’t going to get too many more looks while he is still playing at a high level. Carey Price has been playing a high level the past few years when he hasn’t had to deal with crippling injuries. I would expect both goalies to play at a high level this series so what is going to tip the scales for one team or another?
Claude Julien. Montreal finally wised up and moved on from Michael Therrien. Montreal pounced on the opportunity to scoop up Julien when Boston decided their low PDO was a product of Julien’s system. Boston’s loss is Montreal’s gain.
The Rangers are a counter team. They will not be winning this series based on their ability to control play. There is no evidence that points to New York being able to do so
New York has the speed up front to compile a dangerous counter. They have a deep group of forwards and most of them can play. However, so does Montreal. When you look at Scoring Chances for per 60 Montreal (8.72) and New York (8.92) are relatively equal. Montreal (7.75) has the advantage in defending scoring chances when compared to New York (8.72).
Montreal has the better roster when you get past the forwards. The New York Rangers defense grouping isn’t great. The King is going to have to be the King for New York to move on and that’s a lot of pressure considering Carey Price is in the other net.
I am taking Montreal.
Boston vs Ottawa
The Bruins received a huge favor from Toronto when they avoided the Washington Capitals in round one. However, that used up all of their luck because the injury bug has hit the Bruins hard on the back end.
BREAKING: #Bruins Noel Acciari, Brendan Carlo and Torey Krug will not play in Game 1 vs. the #Senators #StanleyCupPlayoffs
— SiriusXM NHL Network (@SiriusXMNHL) April 10, 2017
Torey Krug is a great player and his presence will be missed. Zdeno Chara isn’t the player he used to be so it isn’t like the Bruins can just throw him an insane amount of minutes and expect him to excel.
Ottawa has a chance in this series if Boston can’t defend. In year’s past Tuukka Rask was a brick wall. That hasn’t been the case recently. He has seen his high danger save percentage plummet
Claude Julien was the victim of his team’s woeful shooting percentage. At the time of Julien’s firing the the Bruins were giving up the least amount of scoring chances that they had all season. That trend is going in the wrong direction
There’s also this
The Bruins' score-adjusted Corsi in 25-game rolling averages dropped 4.5% post Julien firing.
— Andrew Berkshire (@AndrewBerkshire) April 10, 2017
In the weeks leading up to the playoffs I believed that the Boston Bruins were a great pick to go far in the playoffs. They had some great underlying numbers for a lion’s share of the season and their shooting percentage finally regressed to a normal level. They have received a favorable draw for round one, but they are vulnerable given the injuries and how they have slipped in some of the areas that were a strength.
Ottawa has the league’s best defenseman in Erik Karlsson. He is going to play a ton and he will handle it just fine. Up front the Senators should have their full complement of forwards (Hoffman, Stone, Turris, Brassard) which also includes Clarke MacArthur’s return from a concussion.
Craig Anderson has been one of the uplifting stories of this season. His play has been remarkable given the circumstances surrounding his personal life. He has a high danger save percentage of 82.91 and it is Ottawa and not Boston who should have the advantage in goal.
I think Boston would have been cooked if they drew Washington in round one, but they did not. I think they get by the Senators and buy time for their defense to get healthy for round 2. Ultimately, for me it was too hard to overlook this gap
This year only the Bruins, Capitals & BlackHawks finished >53% over the last 25GP. Rangers and Senators are the only two playoff teams <50%. pic.twitter.com/orgduZOC09
— Zac Urback (@Zac_Urback) April 10, 2017
I don’t see enough fire power for Ottawa to overcome things on that front.
Pittsburgh vs Columbus
I will be featuring this series tomorrow.
Thanks for reading!