UPDATE:
Huge newsa for the Oilers as it appears that Duncan Keith will indeed retire. That clears up another 5.5 million in cap space for the Oilers which is a huge bonus. Keith is a sure fire first ballot Hall of Famer but his play has declined with age. I do wish him the best in retirement but right now for the Oilers this is a huge bonus and allows them to be far more aggressive in their dealings.
Yesterday went overall as I expected for the Edmonton Oilers, with the only unknown being the exact details. I was fairly certain we would see Holland trade down and try and deal away a player to shed cap space, I assumed Kassian or Barrie.
In the end we saw the Oilers trade down from 29 to 32 and select Spruce Grove local, Reid Schaefer. That was part of a trade which sent a 2024 third round pick and a 2025 second round pick in exchange for Zack Kassian to the Arizona Coyotes. Those picks won't be of concern for another couple of seasons so effectively the Oilers drop from 29 to 39 and shed 3.2 million in cap space. It is a good little piece of business for Ken Holland but let's not forget for a second that this is only happening because he highly overpaid and overestimated what Zack Kassian was as a player.
ON REID SCHAEFER
The Schaefer pick has been telegraphed for a couple days now and at first glance this feels like an old Oilers move; selecting the big tough forward who is a local boy ahead of some more potentially skilled options. That being said there is reason to look past that.
For starters, the Oilers have done extremely well at finding NHL calibre talent over the past few seasons in the lower part of the first and second round; Ryan McLeod (40th Overall) and Kailer Yamamoto (22nd Overall) are a couple solid examples.
Schaefer will be 19 in September so he is already on the older side of players. We have seen Ken Holland draft a few players like this, potentially securing prospects who are closer to being NHL ready. In 66 games with the Seattle Thunderbirds, Schaefer put up 32 goals and 58 points. Drafting a player below a ppg from the WHL in the first round may set off some red flags but the player did improve as the season went on, playing at a ppg after the first couple months of the season.
At 6'3 and 213lbs, Schaefer has the physical tools to be an effective modern day power forward in the NHL. On the low end, his career could end up being like that of Nick Paul, a bottom six forward who just had a very successful run with the Tampa Bay Lightning. At best, if he can find ways to score in the NHL he could be very akin to a Josh Anderson style of player.
At "almost impossible best case" there are some scouts and reports I have seen that have stated he is an excellent driver of play at 5 on 5 and hasn't gotten enough credit for it and if he continues to grow he could turn into a Mark Stone type of player. Stone was drafted in the 6th round after putting up 28 points in 39 games in the WHL. The following year he exploded for 106 points in 71 games. Schaefer will return to the WHL next season and it will be fun to check in from time to time to see how he is performing.
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Placing Mike Smith and Oscar Klefbom on the LTIR, that gives the Oilers roughly 16 million in cap space. That is 16 million to figure out what you are doing with the RFA's, a starting goalie, and likely another top six forward. The savings might not end there. Holland expects either today or tomorrow he will have confirmation on Duncan Keith. If Keith does indeed retire as is looking more likely, that would be another 5.5 million in cap savings.
Add to that a Tyson Barrie trade and suddenly the Edmonton Oilers have close to 27 million in cap space. Part of that money would of course need to go to replacing Barrie and Keith but I would hope Holland can find a better use for 10 million in cap space than Barrie and Keith... probably...
Goalies are dropping off the market like flies as already today we have seen Husso to Detroit and Vanacek to the Devils. There are reports Sakic is open to receiving a late round pick for the rights to talk to Kuemper. If I am Holland I would highly consider that.
As of right now the Oilers don't draft until the 5th round. I will update later with any picks or trades that we see.