Something that has come up time and time again on these discussion boards is Thomas Chabot’s pending contract extension. Chabot, 22, established himself as a legitimate top-pairing defender last season; this is perhaps evidenced best by his WAR/82, which ranks 12th out of the 53 defensemen who played at least 1,600 minutes last season per Corsica. The bottom line: Coming out of his entry-level deal, Chabot is in line for a *big* raise. While there seems to be a fear in some corners of the fan base that this could be Chabot’s last season in Ottawa due to the team’s general reluctance to spend, there are at least a few factors at play that should put fans' minds at ease.
Firstly, it’s no secret that there isn’t much in the way of leverage available to restricted free agents. Just look at the Toronto Maple Leafs and how things have gone with players like William Nylander and Mitch Marner. The choice is to sign with Toronto or… not play.
While the threat of an offer sheet might create a bit more leverage for players now that Montreal has opened that possibility, it remains a rarely-used tool in today’s NHL. The compensation levels required to make a team, even a budget team, think twice about matching are absurdly high. No team is going to give up four first round draft picks in an offer sheet situation, especially given how valuable young, cost-controlled players are to contending teams in today's NHL.
Of course, there has to be some consideration given to the potential that a Montreal-like offer sheet might be out there next summer. The idea of the Senators having to match a bonus-laden, front-loaded contract like the one the Canadiens offered to Sebastian Aho might seem a little bit scary for some fans, but it seems unlikely that the team would balk at the cost. It’s probably true that Pierre Dorion won't have oodles of cash to play with, but it’s also true that Eugene Melnyk has shown a willingness to spend in certain spots for high-end players (i.e. the $10M offer to Erik Karlsson). It’s hard to imagine that a player like Chabot wouldn’t make that cut.
The other thing to consider as the Senators attempt to get a deal done with Chabot is that, even if they don’t want to, they are going to have to spend money. Per Capgeek, this group has approximately $33M in ‘cap hit’ committed for 2020-21. For reference, the salary floor under the CBA this season is just over $60M. There aren’t enough injured/insured contracts out there to make up that difference.
In short, while some level of anxiety about the Chabot situation is understandable given the circumstances with this team, the most likely outcome continues to be that he signs some kind of extension with the Senators.
As always, thanks for reading.
Michael Stuart was the Tampa Bay Lightning writer for HockeyBuzz from 2012 to 2015, and has been the Ottawa Senators writer since September 2019. Visit his archive to read more or follow him on Twitter.