The Los Angeles Kings' acquisition of Kevin Fiala and the Nashville Predators' Ryan McDonagh grab were likely just the beginning of the NHL's summer trade fireworks.
The buzz around the NHL is that we may see multiple trades involving noteworthy players happening over the next few weeks. Salary cap issues, combined with several teams trying to take the final step toward a Stanley Cup triumph, is prompting several teams to consider moving name players.
Brent Burns. Jeff Petry. Tyson Barrie. William Nylander. Jakob Chychrun. Alex DeBrincat. Plenty interesting names are spinning in the rumor mill.
Teams with cap space will have a distinct advantage in the trade market as the Predators did on the McDonagh.
Former New York Islanders, Florida Panthers and Nashville Predators assistant general manager Mike Santos developed an algorithm named Team 33 that can analyze NHL trades. The algorithm concluded that the Predators were the big winners in their deal.
The algorithm assesses McDonagh's value as 571 on the Team 33 scale. Top pairing defensemen usually are in the 596 range, but McDonagh is right there.
"Plus he is still projecting upward," Santos said. "He's a penalty killer, shot blocker, two-way defenseman, a leader. We see him as a top pairing defenseman over the next three seasons. "
The Predators received defenseman Philippe Myers and left wing Grant Mismash. Myers' Team 33 rating is 134, usually a rating associated with a fifth, sixth or seventh defenseman. The algorithm doesn't project any upward trending. Mismash's rating is 55, consistent with a player who may or may not be called up from the minors.
The reason why the Lightning were willing to make such a lopsided trade was they needed more cap space to re-sign Nick Paul and Ondrej Palat.
The Predators had more than $20 million in cap space before the deal was made.
The Predators received the best player in the deal, but the Lightning probably will continue to be happy with the deal if they can get Palat and Jan Rutta signed. They have already signed Paul.
The Wild didn't want to deal Fiala. He was an 85-point scorer last season. But Minnesota didn't have room under its salary cap to re-sign him.
The Kings wanted Fiala to bolster an offense that ranked 20th in the NHL last season at 2.87 goals per game.
Team 33 algorithm pegs Fiala's value at 543, consistent with a second-line forward. But it forecasts an increase in his value over the next three seasons. He's trending upward.
But the Wild win the deal, according to Team 33, because they receive the Kings' first-round pick and prospect defenseman Brock Faber. The algorithm views Faber as a "high end" transition defenseman with power play ability. His value is 530. The first round pick is valued at 387.
"This really looks good for Minnesota," Santos said.
Santos sells his algorithm to professional teams, including some NHL teams. One of the lures of his system is the assigning of value to draft picks, based on the positioning of the team and the strength of the draft.
That seems valuable ithese days when draft picks are moved like hard currency.
We will likely see more salary cap-connected deals before free agency starts July 13. The teams in the best position to take on salary are the Anaheim Ducks, Detroit Red Wings, Buffalo Sabres and Arizona Coyotes.
The Red Wings have $37.7 million remaining under the salary cap with 15 players already signed. The Ducks have $39.4 million with 14 players signed.
Would expect both teams to use their cap space reserve to acquire a significant asset or two .