Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic recently released fantasy projections for the upcoming season. I highly recommend them – they're really good, cheap, fully customizable based on your league's categories, and the first $2,500 in profit goes to charity – but if all you want are point projections for the Calgary Flames, you're in luck.
I'm going to post them below and share a few thoughts. We'll start with the forwards.
I think Johnny Gaudreau is being underestimated a bit (though it is possible a deeper and more talented forward core will eat into his numbers). He put up 84 points in 80 games last season despite playing on a useless power play that shot just over 11% with him on the ice. That number should be higher this season.
Matthew Tkachuk averaged .63 points per game as a rookie and .72 as a sophomore. Dom has him taking another big step forward jumping up to .81 per game. If he stays healthy, produces 60+ points, and continues drawing a billion penalties, he's going to get a *really* nice payday on a long-term deal next summer.
I know $5.75 million probably seems like a lot for 45 points from James Neal but that projection includes 25 goals, which the Flames would surely be quite happy to get.
I'm sure they'd also be content with 20+ points from Austin Czarnik in a depth role, especially if he can hold his own in possession like he did with Boston. I think he could actually contribute a bit more if he gets a steady assignment on PP2, as has been rumored.
Overall, this helps illustrates why I'm pretty optimistic about the Flames' playoff chances. They're projected to have six 40+ point forwards after having just four hit that mark a year ago. The depth is much better, too, with guys like Derek Ryan and Austin Czarnik replacing Troy Brouwer and Matt Stajan.
Their forward core may not be Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Winnipeg, or Toronto caliber, but it's solid.
To the blueline we go.
Mark Giordano is expected to hover around the 40 point plateau for the third consecutive year. I know that number may not pop off the page but it's really impressive given he will soon be 35 and chews up the toughest minutes imaginable. We need to appreciate this guy.
T.J. Brodie and Noah Hanifin are projected for very marginal point increases. I think Hanifin's bump will be a little bigger as I expect he'll get 30-40+ more power play minutes than he did a year ago in Carolina. Somebody needs to take Dougie Hamilton's ice. It's also worth mentioning Calgary draws a ton of penalties and they added Neal, who is also quite good at it.
Prior to last season, Travis Hamonic had averaged 27 points per 82 games. Dom's model seems to think his 2017-18 output (12.2 points/82) will be closer to what we'll see moving forward. I think that's fair given he is exiting his prime, if he hasn't already, and he isn't used in a role that lends itself to much production.
Beyond that, there isn't much worth commenting on. We know what we'll see from Michael Stone and Brett Kulak and it's tough to project what Rasmus Andersson, Juuso Valimaki and/or Oliver Kylington could bring to the table considering we don't know which one, if any, will make the opening night lineup.
I guess that's what training camp is for.