This is the first part in a two-part series that will examine possible Buffalo Sabres free agent and trade targets who would add toughness and/or leadership while also adding value as suggested by advanced statistical metrics. We’ll assemble the final roster at the end of part 2.
******* If you’ve listened to General Manager Kevyn Adams at all since the end of the season you’ve undoubtedly heard him say that the Sabres need to do a better job connecting with the fan base. It’s pretty clear that the Sabres of the past two years have been the most unpopular Sabres teams probably ever because they not only were terrible in terms of winning and losing, but they often showed no fight or determination (at least until Don Granato showed up). Paul Hamilton of WGR has said many times that fans actively hated the roster of the Sabres this year and he's absolutely right about that.
What made the team especially infuriating was that with pieces like Eichel, Reinhart, Staal, Hall, Cozens, Dahlin and others they had probably the best Sabres roster since 2011 when they last made the playoffs. They were still awful. By contrast, the Ted Nolan teams of the ‘90s were beloved to Sabres fans because what they lacked in talent, they made up for in grit and determination. The combination of an underachieving roster with a soft attitude this year had many – including Kevyn Adams – noticeably frustrated. “We have, as I’ve probably characterized before, a lot of good hockey players that maybe haven’t meshed well together and formed what’s critically important… buying into something bigger than themselves,… Adams said at the end of the season.
The Sabres team this year was pretty rough to watch as they got pushed around all season which finally resulted in Tage Thompson, of all people, dropping the gloves to address a dirty hit late in the season. We’ve got to get Tage some help here. Many outside observers believe the Sabres are years away from making any meaningful push to the post season but perhaps it’s closer than it appears if the Sabres make a few shrewd moves. Listen, I’m not really an intangibles guy or a truculence guy or a culture guy in general – typically I believe that the teams with the best talent are going to win a game against the team with the most unquantifiable leadership characteristics. It’s never a good idea to disregard the underlying numbers on a specific player just because you think that they’re going to bring some magical leadership and toughness potion to the team. The Sabres do, though, have to think about selling tickets and appealing to a fan base that is tired of losing and watching a team that won’t give an honest, physical effort. By combining rugged attributes of potentially available players with their underlying analytical numbers, the Sabres can – and should – acquire and properly slot roster additions who can contribute to a more likable and successful team. Let’s take a look at some options:
Free Agents:
Nick Foligno is first up on this list because he checks a lot of boxes that the Sabres need to address. Leadership-wise Foligno is the former captain of the Columbus Blue Jackets which will help fill a leadership hole with the big-3 of Eichel, Reinhart and Ristolainen possibly departing. A player like Dylan Cozens could really benefit from someone like Foligno who can play any forward position as needed and also stand up for teammates as needed. At this point in his career, the advanced metrics point to a player who is not going to add to the offensive game at all really, but he’s still solid defensively so the Sabres could give him the “C… and slot him on the third line.
Fans need to understand that this is not the Nick Foligno who had 73 points in 79 games in 2014-2015. His advanced metrics over the past few years points to a player who is a drag on offence at even strength, but he still has a solid impact on the defensive side of the game. His CA/60 and xGA/60 were good in 2019-2020 and solid this year but signs point to some decline. Still, he could fill a useful role with the Sabres in a leadership role similar to the position Brian Gionta occupied years back when Eichel was newly drafted.
Foligno’s also a plenty tough guy and he plays a physical game which perhaps gives him an elevated value over Gionta. It’s also a plus for the Sabres that he’s from Buffalo which would probably help them sell some tickets and definitely some jerseys. As for the contract, the Sabres are going to have to pay a bit above market asking price for the 33-year-old due to their position as league bottom dwellers to the tune of something like 3-years at $3.85m per year. It seems steep, sure, but they’ll have some cash to spend and he’ll work out nicely in the bottom-6 with reduced minutes and that in turn should take a lesser physical toll on his body.
Trade Targets:
Trade proposals often tend to devolve into discussions of whether or not a team would make a trade of Player X for Player Y and that’s really not what this article is for. For that reason, this section is not going to include fully fleshed-out trade proposals because that would distract from the purpose of the article which is to highlight some players who could help in the advanced metric sense and in the toughness sense. I’ll include some bare-bones style suggestions as to what a starting point for a trade could like and readers can take it from there in the comments section.
Matthew Tkachuk
This one is tough right off the bat because the contract situation for Matthew Tkachuk is arguably worse for the Flames than the Sam Reinhart situation is for the Sabres, or at least it's heading in that direction this summer. Tkachuk is entering the third year of a $21m contract and due to the contract structure, the cost to qualify him as a restricted free agent (RFA) and keep him on the team for the 2022-23 season is $9m. 2021-22 is also his last year of RFA eligibility so he could very well accept his hefty qualifying offer and play out the year before walking to free agency.
Adding to the uncertainty is the recent speculation in the twittersphere that his preferred landing spot is in St. Louis where he was born and where his dad, Keith Tkachuk, currently lives.
That’s the scary stuff that has to be addressed before any thought of trading for Tkachuk is entertained. The Sabres wouldn’t want to trade Eichel or Reinhart for Tkachuk if his plan is simply to walk out the door after two years and leave them with either a modest trade deadline return or absolutely nothing if they hold onto him past the season in the hopes of getting a deal done. I feel like I’m talking myself out of this already. However, if the Sabres were to reach a long-term agreement with Tkachuk prior to trading for him, the benefits are immense.
In terms of energy and attitude, the Sabres would be getting the definition of “hate to play him; love to have him on your team.… He is a pest and he loves playing a physical game. He’s going to cross the line sometimes and he treads the line between pesky and dirty but the Sabres could use more of that as they really haven’t had anyone in the recent past with his blend of skill and toughness. Tkachuk’s offensive numbers are very good – but not spectacular – through the first six years of his career as he has notched 278 points in 349 games. The pinnacle of his offensive production so far came in the 2018-19 season when he had 34 goals and 43 assists in 80 games.
Several advanced metrics pointed toward him being a solid player across the board this year and really throughout his career; his CF/60, xGF/60, GF/60, xGA/60 and CA/60 are all various levels of solid or good. His goals-above-replacement this year was north of 9. I know some people are bored as hell reading that, but I think it’s important to point out that a player like Tkachuk who the hockey world regards as sort of a throw-back to a more truculent time can still be viewed through a modern lens as a very solid player.
For the Sabres to make this work as part of either a Reinhart or an Eichel trade though, the Flames would have to either sign Tkachuk to an extension or allow the Sabres to speak to the Tkachuk camp and gauge his willingness to sign a long-term extension that would probably see his average annual value somewhere between $8-9m per season. Any extension couldn’t be done until the start of the new league year when Tkachuk will officially have 1 year left on his deal. That deal could center around prospect Connor Zary with Matthew Tkachuk extended for a max deal at-or-about $8m per year in exchange for Sabres captain Jack Eichel who seems intent on getting out of Buffalo. The Flames would almost certainly love to have a topflight center to replace Sean Monahan who is realistically more suited to a second-line role.
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Stay tuned for part two on Monday which will examine additional targets via trade and free agency. We’ll also finalize the roster and see what the end product could look like. Feel free to submit additional players for review in the comments section. Thanks for reading.
Advanced Metrics via evolving-hockey.com