The NHL season is still over a month away, but that hasn’t stopped the odds makers from releasing their lines for point totals. I always love to look at over/unders, and there are usually only a few that seem like safe bets. Then again, even if there are three or four that I am confident in, inevitably at least one of them will have a surprisingly good or bad season.
Bovada has released their over/unders for the season, and you have to look at the very bottom to find Ottawa:
Over/Under NHL Point Totals from @BovadaOfficial: pic.twitter.com/QQFFoIICve
— Mark Stepneski (@StarsInsideEdge) August 24, 2018
That’s not really that surprising considering they finished second last in 2017-18, lost Mike Hoffman and could also lose Erik Karlsson as well, plus the Buffalo Sabres added Rasmus Dahlin, Conor Sheary, Casey Mittelstadt, and Jeff Skinner (while losing Ryan O’Reilly). The Senators are listed at 71.5, and for comparison they finished last year with 67 points.
Although Ottawa hasn’t done anything to improve their roster, I feel like they’ll be able to hit the over on 71.5. I’m not saying they’ll be a playoff team or anywhere near one, but mid to high 70s is certainly possible. So this isn’t a massive prediction here, but I feel good about it. Just look at last years Colorado Avalanche who were coming off of a 48 point season and then made the playoffs the following season despite absolutely zero expectations.
Think about what it would take for the Senators to improve by five points. They can’t really bank on Craig Anderson at this stage in his career, but if his SV% goes from .898% to just .910-.912%, that easily equals several more wins. He doesn’t have to stand on his head, but if the 37-year-old isn’t a trainwreck then the Senators could improve a bit. Losing Hoffman’s production will be a big blow, but the team also does have a few rookies like Logan Brown and Brady Tkachuk who could make some contributions. Furthermore, I’m fully expecting Thomas Chabot to be even better this coming season, and Christian Wolanin has a chance to surprise as well.
I certainly don’t think this team has the pieces anymore to be a good playoff team or anything, but I see no reason why they can’t improve by five points, and the main reason for that would be due to goaltending. Obviously if Karlsson gets moved then that changes things, and I’m sure Bovada is expecting that so the line is pretty low. But even with him gone, going from horrendous goaltending to average can still make a big enough difference.
I’m not really a betting man per se, but I think I would confidently take the over on 71.5 points this season. If they end up finishing under then you know it was another disaster of a season.