Toronto Maple Leafs 2026 NHL Draft Lottery: Odds and the Blackhawks’s Wildcard

The Toronto Maple Leafs' immediate future hinges entirely on the May 5th NHL Draft Lottery. All non-playoff teams will enter the mix for the right to draft consensus number-one pick Gavin McKenna, the Whitehorse, Yukon native is expected to make an immediate jump to the NHL next season. For Toronto though, the stakes go far beyond simply missing out on a top talent.

Source: Gavin McKenna @ Elite Prospects

If the Leafs are lucky enough to secure one of the top two draft slots, their problems would be solved. However, there is only a 17.1% chance of that happening, while there is a 58.2% chance the Leafs fall out of the top 5 completely. Due to the conditions of the Brandon Carlo trade, falling out of the top five means transferring this year's first-round pick directly to the Boston Bruins and missing out on a roster altering draft pick. 

Given the premium crop of defensemen available in the top ten of this draft class, forfeiting this pick to a division rival would register as a catastrophic asset-management failure, rivaling the historical blunders of the Tuukka Rask and Phil Kessel trades.

The Blackhawks Wildcard: Caleb Malhotra

Transferring that pick becomes an even tougher pill to swallow if recent reports are true. According to Jeff Marek, the Chicago Blackhawks, who currently hold the 2nd overall odds with a chance of falling to 4th overall, might be preparing to disrupt the top of the board.

While McKenna and Swedish forward Ivar Stenberg are largely projected to go first and second overall respectively, Chicago is reportedly zeroing in on a different target, prioritizing another forward over the elite crop of defenders. Marek notes the Blackhawks have been extensively tracking the progress of Caleb Malhotra, son of former NHLer and current Abbotsford Canucks Head Coach Manny Malhotra.

Source: Manny Malhotra @ Elite Prospects

Previously viewed as a lock for the top five, Malhotra slipped to 6th overall in the final North American skater rankings. Selecting him at second overall would be a distinct reach by Chicago management. However, if the Blackhawks slide to third or fourth following the lottery, Malhotra becomes a highly realistic target for them.

The Defensive Contingency Plan

If Chicago deviates from the consensus and selects Malhotra ahead of the Leafs, it creates a massive opportunity for Toronto, provided the ping-pong balls allow them to retain their pick. This scenario likely leaves the Leafs choosing between three elite defensemen:

• Carson Carels

• Keaton Verhoeff

• Chase Reid

Landing any of these three would be an incredible victory for the Leafs, immediately injecting top-pair potential into a pipeline desperate for blueline stability.

Front Office Paralysis

Unfortunately for Toronto, this draft uncertainty creates a massive organizational bottleneck. As the team continues its ongoing search to finalize a new front office, management remains engaged on the back end completing scouting and draft preparation.

All of that work could immediately evaporate if the lottery probabilities hold true. A season of on-ice pain could quickly compound into a disastrous off season, making the Brandon Carlo acquisition exponentially more expensive while handing the Bruins a premium asset in a top-heavy draft making the Division that much more competitive long-term.