Toronto Maple Leafs 2026 NHL Draft: Top 5 Prospects to Target at 5th Overall
The 2025-26 season hasn't gone the way anyone in Toronto drew it up, and the standings reflect that reality. But while the day-to-day results have been tough to swallow, there is still a massive opportunity for the season to be salvaged on the horizon: the 2026 NHL Draft.
The stakes surrounding this draft are incredibly high. The Maple Leafs’ 2026 first-round pick is top-5 protected. That means if the season finale on Wednesday doesn't go our way or the lottery balls don't bounce our way and we slip to sixth overall, that pick heads straight to a division rival in Boston. Assuming Toronto holds the line and retains that number five spot, they have a rare chance to add a blue-chip prospect to a system that desperately needs an injection of elite talent.
The "Gap Year" Blueprint
If you need proof of how a single disastrous season can completely alter the trajectory of a franchise, look no further than the 2017 NHL Draft. The 2016-17 Colorado Avalanche were a complete tire fire, finishing with a historically bad 48 points. The reward for all that misery? They drafted a kid named Cale Makar fourth overall, and he instantly became the blue-line engine of a core that hoisted the Stanley Cup in 2022. That very same year, the Dallas Stars came off a division title, cratered unexpectedly, jumped to third overall in the lottery, and grabbed Miro Heiskanen, anchoring their back end to become a perennial powerhouse. That is the exact opportunity sitting right in front of Toronto. A "gap year" is only a failure if you waste the draft capital it creates. Hitting a home run with a top-five pick isn't about starting a massive, agonizing rebuild; it's the ultimate cheat code to re-open a championship window and finally get over the hump.
2026 NHL Draft: The Targets at a Glance
Let's dive into the top five prospects who should be on the radar at 5th overall, why they fit the team's glaring needs, and who actually has a realistic chance of being on the board when Toronto steps to the podium.
| Prospect | Position | Current Team | 2025-26 Outlook |
| Keaton Verhoeff | RHD | North Dakota (NCAA) | Dominate 17-year-old college freshman |
| Chase Reid | RHD | Soo Greyhounds (OHL) | Elite skating, minute-munching defender |
| Caleb Malhotra | C | Brantford Bulldogs (OHL) | 84 points in 67 games, explosive two-way center |
| Carson Carels | LHD | Prince George (WHL) | 73 points in 58 games, WHL Defenseman of the Year nominee |
| Tynan Lawrence | C | Boston College (NCAA) | Made bold mid-season jump to college at 17, elite 200 foot center |
1. Keaton Verhoeff (RHD, University of North Dakota)
Why He Fits: You can never have too many massive, elite right-shot defensemen.
The Reality: Let’s get this out of the way right now, Keaton Verhoeff dropping to number five is highly unlikely. The 6-foot-4, 208-pound blueliner is currently ranked as the No. 2 North American skater by NHL Central Scouting for a reason. He is the third-youngest player in men's college hockey and is already imposing his will at UND with 20 points and 42 blocked shots in his first 33 games. He brings size, a punishing physical edge, and the hockey IQ required to shut down top lines. If a team ahead of Toronto goes off the board and Verhoeff miraculously slides to five, you don't overthink it. You sprint to the podium.
NHL Comparable: Brent Burns
Why: Like Seider, Verhoeff is a towering right-shot defenseman who doesn't just rely on his size, he actively uses it to punish opponents. He processes the game at a high level, steps up in the neutral zone, and has the offensive instincts to contribute, making him a true all-situations franchise pillar.
Source: Keaton Verhoeff @ Elite Prospects
2. Chase Reid (RHD, Soo Greyhounds)
Why He Fits: The Leafs desperately need a dynamic puck-mover on the right side.
The Reality: If Verhoeff is gone, Chase Reid should be priority number one on the Maple Leafs' draft board. Reid is arguably the best play-driving defenseman in the 2026 class. He is an elite skater with brilliant edgework, allowing him to carry the puck out of trouble and quarterback a power play with ease. Playing big minutes for the Soo Greyhounds, he defends well with his stick and generates a ton of offense (averaging over four shots on goal per game). Reid projects as a top-pairing NHL defenseman who can eat minutes and transition the puck flawlessly, exactly what the Leafs' blue line lacks.
NHL Comparable: Noah Dobson
Why: Reid is that prototypical modern right-shot offensive defenseman. Similar to Dobson, his value is rooted in elite edge work and the ability to cleanly transition the puck out of his own zone. He is a power-play quarterback who generates a high volume of shots and drives possession.
Source: Chase Reid @ Elite Prospects
3. Caleb Malhotra (C, Brantford Bulldogs)
Why He Fits: Elite center depth and a relentless two-way motor.
The Reality: Yes, that Malhotra. Manny’s kid has been an absolute revelation in the OHL this season. Entering the draft as one of its biggest risers, the 6-foot-2 center exploded for 84 points (29 goals, 55 assists) in 67 games and has been putting up MVP-level performances in the OHL playoffs. What makes Malhotra so enticing for Toronto isn't just his offensive production; it's his defensive conscience. He is widely considered the hardest-working center in the 2026 draft. He wins crucial faceoffs, drives the play, and operates with high-end hockey sense. With the future of the Leafs' center depth always a talking point, Malhotra would instantly become the jewel of the forward pipeline.
NHL Comparable: Bo Horvat (with a shade of Ryan O'Reilly)
Why: Malhotra has that same heavy, relentless two-way motor. He is going to win crucial defensive zone faceoffs, match up against top lines, and still drive the net hard enough to put up significant offensive numbers. He is a coach's dream down the middle.
Source: Caleb Malhotra @ Elite Prospects
4. Carson Carels (LHD, Prince George Cougars)
Why He Fits: Unteachable offensive instincts from the back end.
The Reality: Carels is one of my personal favorites in this draft, and is someone I’d even be willing to move up my draft board without question. Carels has been lighting the Western Hockey League on fire. He was just nominated for the WHL Defenceman of the Year after posting an absurd 73 points in 58 games for Prince George. At 6-foot-2 and nearly 195 pounds, he already possesses a pro-ready frame. What separates Carels is his raw production and offensive ceiling. He isn't just a point-getter; he plays a hard, heavy game, racking up 73 penalty minutes this season to go along with a +23 rating. If the Leafs want to swing for the fences on a high-ceiling, left-shot offensive dynamo, Carels is the guy to target.
NHL Comparable: Josh Morrissey
Why: Carels combines high-end offensive production from the left side with a legitimate physical edge. Much like Morrissey, he isn't just a perimeter playmaker; he engages physically, takes penalties when he plays on the edge, and possesses unteachable offensive instincts.
Source: Carson Carels @ Elite Prospects
5. Tynan Lawrence (C, Boston University)
Why He Fits: Unmatched hockey IQ and a pro-ready, 200-foot game down the middle.
The Reality: Lawrence is one of the most fascinating case studies in the 2026 draft class. He absolutely torched the USHL last season, winning playoff MVP honors while leading Muskegon to a Clark Cup. Then, in a bold move, he made the mid-season jump to the NCAA to join Boston University as a 17-year-old freshman. Going up against older, heavier college competition predictably slowed his raw production, but it also showcased his incredible, mature hockey sense. Lawrence is a true coach's dream, he uses an effortless skating stride to cover the ice, drives play in transition, and executes all the quiet, defensive details perfectly. Because his offensive numbers dipped during his NCAA learning curve, his draft stock has fluctuated just enough to make him a highly realistic target at number five. If Toronto wants a highly responsible, connective piece who can lock down the middle of the ice for the next decade, Lawrence is a massive target.
NHL Comparable: Anthony Cirelli
Why: Like Cirelli, Lawrence is a relentlessly hardworking, two-way center who instantly earns a coach's trust in all situations. He might not be the flashiest point-getter on the board, but his true value is rooted in driving possession, winning critical battles, killing penalties, and providing elite defensive stability down the middle while generating offense through high-IQ passing and pure effort.
Source: Tynan Lawrence @ Elite Prospects
What’s Next for the Maple Leafs?
Drafting at number five gives the Leafs a chance to dramatically accelerate a roster retool. Whether it's securing a minute-munching righty like Reid, a relentless two-way force like Malhotra, or a dynamic blueliner like Carels, the high-end talent is there. Now, we just need the hockey gods to show us some mercy, let the ping-pong balls fall in our favor, and keep this pick entirely out of Boston’s hands.