Toronto Maple Leafs and Nick Robertson Agree on Contract

Usually, when an NHL player and their organization have their arbitration numbers revealed, there is some posturing from both sides. Historically, the player aims high, while the franchise, trying to minimize costs, submits a low-ball offer. When the two parties' numbers came out today, that was not the case; instead, both submitted reasonable figures that make sense for each side.

Last week, I predicted the Maple Leafs would seek a salary of around $1,250,000, and Robertson would look to make around $3,000,000 per year. Yesterday, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet revealed that the difference between the two asks is just $1,050,000 — a minuscule amount in the grand scheme of things given today's NHL salaries.

The question remains, however: where does Robertson fit?

According to PAVEL Analytics, despite his scoring prowess last season, Robertson still nets out as a fourth-line player. Robertson’s play broke down as follows:

“Nick Rob's player card is hilarious. Two years ago with Keefe, he was horrid defensively, but barely took penalties, forechecked well, scored at a ridiculous rate, but couldn't drive play.

With Berube, the high motor, scoring and lack of playdriving stayed, but the defence Improved..? His HDCA wasn't better, nor was his xGa. But he was trusted a bit more by Berube than he was with Keefe, and other metrics also increased (the amount of unblocked shots allowed on-ice, etc.), which raised his stock. He's a good player despite a lot of criticisms.”

With their hearing set for Sunday, the Maple Leafs and Nick Robertson got business complete ahead of their arbitration hearing. Elliotte Friedman announced this morning that the two parties had agreed on a new contract keeping Robertson in Toronto. 

I still believe that Robertson's time in Toronto is likely coming to a close, a process that will likely be expedited by cost certainty. A fresh start would be best for both parties, especially a move that gives Robertson an opportunity to be featured more prominently. Now that opposing teams know what the forward would cost, a deal could be more likely. With the parties committing to a short term contract, neither is locked long-term and this will likely start the finalization of the Leafs roster. 

What do you think is the most likely scenario? Does Robertson start the season in Toronto or is he likely to find himself elsewhere?