Follow Colin on Twitter!: @ColinDJD
Given that the majority of discussions at the moment are rather hypothetical, in a sense, I felt that it would be interesting to review historical trends of drafting the 8th overall pick and what it could mean for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Before we move into the discussion, there are a few things I’d like to get out of the way. Of late, there has been a lot of chatter about the Leafs possibly moving up in the draft as rumours offered some potential dialogue between Toronto and Florida for their 1st overall pick.
Let me keep my thought on the proposed names and terms of these rumoured deals short – it won’t happen.
For those who missed out on the discussion, Howard Berger offered that Toronto may be interested in moving Nazem Kadri, Dion Phaneuf, and their 8th overall pick for Florida's 1st overall selection, in addition to their veteran blueliner Ed Jovanovski.
Firstly, Toronto doesn’t exactly have deep pockets when it comes to highly regarded youth and prospects who are NHL ready, or close to for that matter. By moving one in Nazem Kadri who is still developing his game, they could be asking for trouble down the road.
While I can see the appeal in going after the 1st overall pick which could mean grabbing a guy like Aaron Ekblad, what it will cost to acquire him may cause other problems. Many analysts have commented on the fact that acquiring a potential stud like Ekblad would create a very strong and promising young defensive core for Toronto, however Kadri appears to be the highest rated, young forward which the Leafs possess at the moment; one I should add that could turn out to be a great player in a few short years.
So where am I going with all this?
Well, the way I see it is that Toronto should remain patient, don’t try and rush anything, stay on track and allow things to fall into place rather than trying to force the issue. And with that, I do not personally feel that Toronto should, or will, trade assets to move up in this year’s draft.
Moving back to the original topic, I have compiled a list of all players drafted 8th overall in the past 20 years below. What I will offer, following the list, is a breakdown of the “average… player selected over this time frame in order to try and predict who the Leafs may lean toward with their selection. Further, and by looking over the players listed, we can try and assert what success rate this pick generally yields.
Rasmus Ristolainen Derrick Pouliot Sean Couturier Alexander Burmistrov Scott Glennie Mikkel Boedker Zach Hamill Peter Mueller Devin Setoguchi Alexandre Picard Braydon Coburn Pierre-Marc Bouchard Pascal Leclaire Nikita Alexeev Taylor Pyatt Mark Bell Sergei Samsonov Johnathan Aitken Terry Ryan Jason Wiemer
So let’s say it – that is not a very promising look list of players. There are 20 players listed above, of which only 3-4 I would consider having “good… NHL careers. The book is still out on the most recent draft picks, but the success rate of the 8th overall pick, to me, doesn’t look too great.
With that established, the average player selected over the past 20 years is a Canadian centerman, standing around 6’2 tall, and weighing in at about 200lbs.
Taking the above criteria into account, and provided that the Leafs follow historical trends with respect to previous drafting records, we can expect Toronto to select Jake Virtanen with their 8th overall selection.
The funny thing about Jake is that he continues to drop down the list of many mock drafts provided by NHL analysts. Whether or not this is due to his shoulder injury is tough to say at this point, but Jake was projected to go top 10 for quite some time, and many have him outside of that list at the moment.
The size and skill of this young player has certainly caught the attention of many scouts, and I believe that the Leafs will scoop him up over a guy like Nick Ritchie, who in my opinion, may end up being another big player who can’t offer more than “truculence… at the NHL level.
Thanks for reading!