Free agency, aka the silly season, is once again upon us. In the past, the first few hours of free agency was slow, as the "team/player interviews" had reportedly just began when free agency started. Of course, we all knew that contact had to have been had before that. The past few years, including this one, there are no such pretenses, as the interview period started a few days ago, so we could see movement early.
For New York, as Larry Brooks wrote and something I will tackle below, the focus has to be on retaining their own players. As Brooks wrote, the Rangers enter free agency with a roster of two goaltenders, six defensemen and 10 forwards under contract who account for approximately $61.375 million of the $71.4 million cap. Those numbers include the qualifiers for J.T. Miller ($874,130) , Emerson Etem ($850,500) and Jesper Fast (also $850,500), though I believe the numbers for each of the three and slightly higher than that. Some room was freed up by the trading of Carl Hagelin, who was likely to want about $3.5 million from NY, to Anaheim for Etem as well as the deal of Cam Talbot ($1.45 mil) offset by acquisition of Antti Raantta ($750k). Despite those savings, as you see above, the Rangers are in a fairly good cap crunch.
Augmenting that crunch is the need to re-sign Derek Stepan, who is arbitration eligible RFA and will at a minimum get what Derick Brassard signed for, $5.5 millin. But expect that number to land somewhere between $5.75 and $6.5 million over five or six years. Stepan, depending on your view, is a 1A/1B center, not a second as others believe, and has showed he is a proven playoff performer. One aspect I need to check is if Stepan, who would be on his third deal, is eligible for an offer sheet, though my belief is he isn’t.
Let’s say Stepan gets about $6 mil. That leaves the Rangers around $4 million with which to add another center, two wingers and one more defenseman. If, Oscar Lindberg ($708,750 qualifying offer) and Dylan McIlrath ($850,500) — both would have to clear waivers in order to be sent to the AHL — fill your third/fourth line center one and seventh d-man, that would leave the Blueshirts with just under $2.5 million for another forward and a veteran defenseman. Ah but not so fast, now for the kicker, the offer sheet possibility.
Those two words, “offer sheet,… used to send a chill down a GM’s backs. However, in the past, it was more a threat than a reality. Since the cap era began, there has only been eight offer sheets with only Dustin Penner not matched. In the past several years, Shea Weber and Ryan O’Reilly received offer sheets with each matched. With the current landscape of the NHL such that there are new GMs, who are not part of the old boys network and/or concerned with ruffling feathers, the specter of the offer sheet is reality not fiction.
That poison pill is a big reason why Brandon Saad was traded (which by the way, Chicago didn’t badly acquiring Marko Dano and other pieces). In addition, it was one reason given for the Dougie Hamilton trade, though “uppity and standoffish… are two of the terms thrown about as more likely reasons for the deals. Why I am writing all this, JT Miller, that’s why.
Miller, who took a major step forward during the year but especially the playoffs, is expected to take on a larger role with the Rangers this season. It’s possible that he remains in the right wing spot vacated by the departure of Martin St. Louis, as he did in the postseason. Miller is not eligible for arbitration, which makes him at risk for an offer sheet. The same could be said about Fast and Etem, but those two are less likely to be targeted and would receive much smaller offers if they were.
Here is the current draft pick compensation at the various salary levels if an offer sheet is given:
2015-16 Averaged Salary Draft Pick Compensation $1,205,377 and below No compensation $1,205,377 to $1,826,328 Third-round pick $1,826,328 to $3,652,659 Second-round pick $3,652,659 to $5,478,986 First- and third-round pick $5,478,986 to $7,305,316 1st-, 2nd-, and 3rd-round pick $7,305,316 to $9,131,645 Two 1sts+a 2nd & 3rd-rnd pk $9,131,645 and above Four first-round picks
There is no question I could see a team offering at least $1.825 mil for Miller, which would be a third round pick. At that level, he likely will be matched, as I expect NY to offer him a two-year deal at around $2.75 mil overall. However, it’s that next tier that is scary. Would an offer at $2.5 mil per surprise you, given the lack of real strong young talent in this year’s free agent pool? If so, could NY afford to match, due to the impact it would make on the rest of the roster? Could they afford not to match, due to the lack of available resources in the system and/or in free agency? This is where my criticism of Sather, which you have heard me mentioned over and over comes in. Sign a player long term a year early rather than a year late. If you liked Miller, then lock up him for two years last year. Same when you signed Benoit Pouliot or wanted to sign Anton Stralman. Are you willing to have the same issue with Kevin Hayes going into next season? What about with Chris Kreider, though that one is more so how much more it would cost if he continues his growth.
So what to do? Two options dealing Hagelin and Talbot have already been checked off. The third and likely option is to deal Kevin Klein and his $2.9 mil salary. If you want to exercise that option, I wholeheartedly understand. But for those espousing this view, please stop using the regression in his shooting percentage after that ridiculously hot start as the major reason for it. We all knew that what Klein was doing was unsustainable and a regression would happen. If you want to use his so-so defensive metrics and how poor he looked in the post-season after coming back from injuries, sure that makes sense. Same with the three years remaining and need to free up cap room, absolutely. But the shooting percentage decline should not be a major reason. The possibility of moving Klein is a reason why I would have brought back Hunwick, but the possibility of losing McIlrath to waivers if he was sent down might have driven NY to decide to see if he can fill a similar role. If not, he will be sent down and hopefully by then, Brady Skjei is ready.
Free agency this year has some intriguing and as usual, many that will be grossly overpaid. It’s not a great class, especially with Devan Dubnyk re-signing with Minnesota, removing the best goalie available. Mike Green will garner a lot of interest, as will Andrej Sekera, Cody Franson and possibly Christian Ehrhoff. Up front, Michael Frolik should have a ton of suitors, and we know that Matt Beleskey may end up with $5+ mil per over five years. You can pretty much cross all those names off the list for New York.
The three players who NY could and should target are P.A. Parenteau, Alexander Semin and Justin Williams. I would say each should come cheap, as Mike Ribeiro did last year, but because free agency is pretty much all about the overpayment, that view is likely to be wrong. Below are some of their advanced stats charts. What they show is that each were and likely will be productive, despite reasons for their availability.
With Parenteau, his shooting percentage plummeted the past two seasons to around 5.5% this past year. If you believe that rises back to close to the norm, his production will jump accordingly. With Semin, it’s the million dollar arm, 10 cent head theory. If his attitude matched his talent, he would be a world beater. Sound like Nikolai Zherdev? But as you see from the charts, the effort was there last season. If you could get him for a reasonable one year deal, he would be worth it. Williams is someone whose game rises as the year gets warmer. To have him for the playoffs would be ideal, but I expect him to get a several year offer at big money.
P.A Parenteau:
Impact on Linemates:
Hero Chart:
Alexander Semin:
Impact on Linemates - 2013-15
2015:
Hero Chart:
Justin Williams:
Impact on Linemates:
Hero Chart:
Some other possible targets could be: Shawn Matthias, Curtis Glencross, Brad Boyes, Eric Fehr, Jiri Tlusty, Mike Santorelli, Daniel Winnik, James Sheppard, Martin St. Louis Gregory Campbell, Kyle Brodzniak, Daniel Paille and Joel Ward to name a few. They are somewhat listed in priority and likelihood, as Ward will be the most expensive to sign while I like Matthias a lot and he would be a great fit on the third/fourth line. However, with the scenario I laid out above and expected cap room, GM Glen Sather’s best call may be to lay low initially and try and sign someone after the first few days on the cheap. The other possibility is a trade, since if Green, Ehrhoff, Paul Martin and others sign, teams may be more willing to part with something NY could use for Klein.