OverPay Dougie Hamilton not Dustin Byfuglien
In the last blog I talked about what teams and who on them the Jets could be looking at based on teams need cap relief and the Jets having cap space along with picks and prospects. I also hinted at looking at teams who may still be in need of what the Jets have but for different reasons than cap relief.
Before that happens there’s something worth looking at a bit more closely, hitting the Bruins with a huge offer sheet for Dougie Hamilton and ditching Dustin Byfuglien, preferable in that order.
First and foremost, is an offer sheet likely to work? Probably not and most people would cite the Flyers attempt to land Shea Weber. While that was a huge gamble for the Flyers it was based on the premise that Nashville could or would not pay not about the value of the player. The bet this time is that long-term, Dougie Hamilton is going to be worth giving up serious draft picks and can space for his acquisition.
The cost to get does not have to be steep if you are the Bruins and you get him signed soon but to take him away from the Bruins it will have to be big, perhaps even massive. The tipping point could be the term and the base salary and what you have to surrender. If the Jets or any other team wants Hamilton they have to be prepared to sacrifice in the future and that future would include a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks if the contract is between $5,478,986-$7,305,316 in AAV. If it’s over that amount the picks would increase to 2 x1st round, 2nd and 3rd. Would you do that for Dougie Hamilton?
Here’s a reason why you might:
This is a list of all players aged 21 as of Feb 1 in the season who scored 10 goals and had 32 points or more since 2000-2001 season.
That’s a rather exclusive list.
Here’s another list, this one is from 2000-2001 season but for defensemen who are 31 (which Buff will be next year) and have scored 18 goals and 27 assists in a season, which Buff did last season.
This is also rather exclusive and also very telling. Only two players in that time of 15 years achieved those marks over the age of 32, is Buff going to?
That’s the gamble that the Jets are about to make if they sign Byfuglien to any kind of extension which will certainly be at least 6 million per year with some suggesting it could be closer to 7 million. Why pay that much for a diminishing asset when it would make far more sense to pay it for one that is set to rise in value?
This is not the easiest struggle for any GM but there’s a lot going on this year with the cap restraints and teams looking to rebuild/tool and alter their dynamics. For the Jets it’s about trying to squeak through all the noise without getting noticed until it’s too late. Any offer sheet of the magnitude I am suggesting will get noticed but coming from the Jets might make other teams a bit more passive in their approach until it has been tendered to the player.
While Pierre Lebrun has hinted the Oilers may take a run a Hamilton does it make sense? Probably, as while the Oilers have toiled away in futility paying young players large salaries with no improvement in team results, they have done one thing well- protected those players from being poached by offer sheets.
Hall, Eberle, and Nugent-Hopkins are locked up as is Yakupov now, and should the Oilers offer sheet Hamilton there is no option for retribution by the Bruins. It’s a smart but costly way to protect young assets, and rather different but everything is different in Edmonton.
The Jets on the other had have two key RFA players next season in Jacob Trouba and Mark Scheifele and you know which one would most-likely be offer-sheeted. In Trouba’s rookie year he had 10 goals and 19 assists, here’s the list from 2000-2001 to the number of players who have done that at age 19.
Funny enough, the Jets have had 3 of those players.
In comparison between Buff and Hamilton it’s not even close when thinking about where the player will be. If any team were to offer Hamilton 7 years at 7 million(or more) they are getting him entering his prime. For Byfuglien he may be leaving his and it’s doubtful he takes any term less than 4-5 years on his next deal.
Hamilton
Byfuglien
Which one of these players is more likely to decline over the next three years? That’s what Chevy and the Jets should be looking at with Buff before they hit the market the season. In fact they should be talking to the Bruins right now if the rumours of an offer sheet being floated by Edmonton are true.
No team wants a contract based on some one else’s terms and that’s what matching an offer sheet does. Chevy could begin to talk to the Bruins and suggest that to prevent Edmonton’s attack they do a sign and trade with Winnipeg. Byfuglien, (if Boston's on his trade list) the 17th overall pick and some sweetener (Kostalek?) for Hamilton.
It’s a nice way to do it as no one gets hurt feelings, teams keep their draft picks, no one is paying for some one else’s contract and Edmonton gets screwed. Sounds like a perfect opportunity to do a lot of good things until next off season when the Oilers come looking for blood with a offer sheet for Trouba. I’d bet on the Jets billionaire owner before the Oilers in that scenario though.