What does a good offensive season in the NHL look like?
It depends on usage and expectations, first of all. A good offensive season for Zemgus Girgensons is not the same as it would be for Rasmus Dahlin. Players are asked to perform different roles. For the purposes of this thought experiment, though, we’ll have to set the parameters of a successful campaign by a scoring forward. The benchmark for a good offensive season, if such a subjective assessment can be made, probably lies around the 60-point mark for that hypothetical offensively minded forward.
The Buffalo Sabres have had significant scoring woes for the better part of a decade which has led to underwhelming point totals for the blue and gold. In fact, the list of the last 10 players to hit 60 points for the Sabres spans nearly 15 years. Here is that list of players via hockeyreference.com:
Jack Eichel (2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-2020)
Sam Reinhart (2018-2019)
Ryan O’Reilly (2015-16, 2017-18)
Jason Pominville (2006-07, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2009-10, 2011-12)
Thomas Vanek (2011-12, 2010-11, 2008-09, 2007-08, 2006-07)
Derek Roy (2006-07, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2009-10)
Tim Connolly (2009-10)
Danny Briere (2006-07)
Chris Drury (2006-07)
Max Afinogenov (2006-07)
Evander Kane never really came close, as his highest point total was 43 points during the 2016-17 season. Drew Stafford and Jochen Hecht got decently close with performances in the low-to-mid 50s after the departures of Danny Briere and Chris Drury. Of course the past two COVID-19 shortened seasons plays somewhat of a role in this, although it probably wouldn’t have made that much of a difference as Taylor Hall wasn’t going to hit 60 points no matter what.
Victor Olofsson was on pace for 63 points over 82 games during the 2019-2020 season before the pandemic cut that season short. Olofsson has 9 points in 8 games this year which would put him over 80 points when extended out through 82 games. That’s not going to hold up in all likelihood. He is as good of a candidate as you’ll find on the team to hit that 60-point barrier, though, and it seems like a solid bet for him to end up around 65 points. Olofsson has kicked his even-strength production up a notch with 6 even-strength points in 8 games, and he has added 3 power play points along the way as well.
Olofsson’s linemate, Rasmus Asplund, is above a 60-point pace as well, but that feels highly unlikely to continue over the duration of the season. That said, it would be a very welcome surprise if he were able to keep it up and manage to hit that .73 points-per-game pace. With all due respect to Zemgus Girgensons and Kyle Okposo, it’s incredibly hard to see them netting 60 points, despite their solid starts.
Tage Thompson could be a sleeper candidate to get there. While he only currently has 4 points in 8 games, he is playing with the aforementioned Olofsson and Asplund which should give him a the opportunity to collect some secondary assists and rebound goals if that line can keep up its stellar play.
Casey Mittelstadt is likely out of the running. He will miss at least 9.5 of the team’s first 10 games after suffering an injury in the opener, and with no points in his one half game, he’d would need to score 60 points in 70 games to get there. Not going to happen. The last realistic candidate to get to 60 points is Rasmus Dahlin, although his start has been underwhelming and he doesn’t seem to be trending in the correct direction to get there.
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Randoms:
- Speaking of Dahlin, fans are beginning to grow impatient with the Swedish defenseman who was taken first overall by the Sabres back in 2018. Fans can ignore some defensive deficiencies if he is generating offense, but when he’s not producing points, well, there’s not much to point to beyond some slick stick work. The Sabres need more from him.
- The Sabres are halfway through their western road trip and so far have a 1-1-0 record after a win in Anaheim and a loss in LA. 2 more points would give them a respectable 4/8 possible points and keep them in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race.
- Playoffs?!? Sure, why not? Until they’re out of the race, they should be talked about as being in the race.
- Full disclosure here: I was at the Bills game yesterday so I didn’t see any of the Sabres game against the Kings. The Bills struggled early on with some miscues, but those paled in comparison to the odd mistakes that befell the Dolphins. The Fish had an opportunity to go into halftime with a 13-3 lead if not for a missed field goal and a brutal fumble that resulted from a botched shotgun snap. Can’t have those mistakes against a team as good as the Bills.
- Casey Mittelstadt’s impending return will hopefully give the team a little more punch offensively. It’s tough to win games when the team only scores 2 goals. It’s just not a regular recipe for success unless the team is built and coached by Barry Trotz. The Sabres aren’t that team.
- The Jack Eichel saga looked to finally, mercifully be almost over last Friday as it was reported by numerous sources that Vegas was close to finalizing a deal for the injured former captain. It’ll be nice when this is all over, assuming GM Kevyn Adams can point to a key piece like Peyton Krebs as part of the return.
- Tomorrow night’s game is another edition of #sabresafterdark with a 10:30 start time. There’s a big part of me that loves these late games. Not sure why really. I guess just because it’s different and breaks up the monotony of a long season. Chances of me making it to the end of the game (which will probably around 1:10) without falling asleep? 50/50. It would certainly help if they’re leading after two periods.