The Predators practice this morning, then head off to Pittsburgh for the front end of their last back-to-back of the season. With the Predators safely clinched, let’s take a look at what the team needs to do over their last five games and what these results will drive regarding playoff matchups.
Nashville has five games remaining and the potential to break 100 points again by gathering eight points in these last five games, but let’s look at positioning… all of the percentages I am about to quote are courtesy of sportsclubstats.com.
If the Predators go 5-0-0, they will finish with 102 points and have a 48% chance of winning the Central and a 49% chance of clinching 2nd in the division and home ice for round 1. Go 4-0-1 and they will finish with 101 points and have a 34% chance of winning the Central and a 60% chance of clinching 2nd in the division.
Any combination that results in eight points will give the Preds 100 points and a 15% chance of winning the division and a 64% chance of taking 2nd… they would also have a 21% chance of finishing third. Seven points will result in 99 points and a 7% chance at the division, 59% chance at second and a 33% chance at third.
Now things start to get interesting as any combination that results in six or less points dramatically increase the Predators chances of not getting home ice in round one, chances for the division crown drop to 2%, second drops to 41% and the chances of finishing third jump to 57%. And things head south from there as 5 points gets a 70% chance at third, 4 points gets an 82% chance at third and the chances for dropping into the wild card begins to come into play.
So… a strong finish needs to happen to secure their positioning as well as starting the playoffs in a good spot from an on-the-ice perspective. So let’s take a look at the finishing schedules for the teams that Nashville is jockeying for position with.
Winnipeg currently leads the division, with six games to play, the Jets have 94 points and the potential to finish with 106 points… if the Jets finish at 102 points or more, they win the division… get 106 and they have a slim chance of winning the West. If the Predators and Jets tie, Winnipeg will win the tie-breaker on ROW. Their remaining schedule has them at home against the New York Islanders tonight and Montreal Saturday. The Jets finish on the road with games at Chicago, Minnesota, Colorado and Arizona. Three games against teams in playoff position and two against teams still in the hunt as I write this. The Jets most likely playoff opponent is Dallas at 68.4%. The Jets are on a bit of a “win one, lose one… pace right now after winning four straight, they have dropped two of their last three.
The St. Louis Blues seem to be the team that no one wants to play, considering the tear they have been on since the new year, that is understandable. The Blues have 90 points with six games left to play and the potential to finish at 102 points. If the Blues and Predators tie in points, the Blues have the ROW tie breaker. The remaining schedule for the Blues has two back-to-backs and the remaining six games are over an eight day period. They have the Metro area back-to-back this Friday and Saturday against the Rangers and Devils, then return home for Colorado, on the road to Chicago, then finish at home against Philadelphia and Vancouver. The Blues are on a four game win streak and only have one game left against a playoff team. A 6-0 finish means at least second in the division and home ice in the first round and a 52% chance to win the division.
Yikes… if St. Louis wins out, it could set up a Winnipeg/Nashville first round series.
Let that one marinate…
The Predators are back in action tomorrow night in Pittsburgh.
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The Where We Stand section
Nashville is in second place in the Central Division, two points behind the Winnipeg Jets, Winnipeg holds a game in hand over Nashville. The Preds lead St. Louis (1 GIH) by two points.
Nashville has clinched their playoff spot and currently holds the 4 seed in the Western Conference playoff race. As things stand today, Nashville would host a first round series against the St. Louis Blues and according to SportsClubStats.com, the Predators chances of playing St. Louis in the first round stands at 77.7%.
Impact Games Tonight – None – Nashville is off until Friday night when they travel to Pittsburgh. Winnipeg plays the New York Islanders on Thursday, St. Louis plays the New York Rangers on Friday
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Last night’s SlapShot Radio
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Random Notes
- Milwaukee Update – The Ad’s posted a big win over Rockford last night 4-2. It’s their third consecutive win and sixth straight game with a point.
- Watson – Austin Watson had three point night in Milwaukee with 2 goals and 1 assist.
- Salomaki – Miikka Salomaki has an assist in last night’s game.
- Dallas – Big win is Calgary for the Stars… don’t look past Dallas.
- Huge One – Big game tonight in Columbus as the Canadiens and Blue Jackets are in a struggle for the last wild card spot In the East.
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