July is always a fascinating month in the NHL of the 21st Century… fans that are a little older remember when the entire league would shut down right after the entry draft and you wouldn’t hear a word until early September. Yeah… those days are long gone… with UFA, prospect camps RFA’s and arbitration… Hockey Ops staffs are lucky to get a week or two off before the next season starts.
This is a new experience in Nashville… taking the 2016/17 season to the max has turned the offseason into a compressed period of what appears to be frantic activity, and GM David Poile celebrated his 20th anniversary in that role by prepping for potential arbitration and negotiating with RFA’s. The Preds have a little over $20 million in cap space. As best I can tell… here is where the Preds stand with their RFA’s
Ryan Johansen - The 24 year old center already has 433 NHL games and 34 playoff games under his belt. His performance from January on through the playoffs was outstanding and he is expected to fully recover from the acute compartment syndrome that sidelined him in the Western Conference Final. He has 101 goals and 187 assists and has posted 60+ points in each of his first four seasons in the NHL. The Preds forst line center is coming off a three year contract that paid him $6 million last season. Rumors have stated that Johansen is looking for $8.5 million a year and declined to go to salary arbitration… My take? I see RyJo getting $8 million as an AAV over a five year contract. That takes him to the age of 29 and the potential for a huge payday as a UFA then.
Viktor Arvidsson - Arvy picked a good time to have his breakout season, posting 31 goals and 30 assists in his first full NHL season… significantly upping his value to the team. The 24 year old forward is coming off of his entry level contract and has certainly earned a hefty raise, but how much of one gets earned in a single season. I’m watching this one carefully as this one will be difficult, I don’t expect it to get here, but Arvidsson has elected to go to salary arbitration, his hearing is scheduled for July 22. I see an AAV of between $3 - $4 million.
Austin Watson - After and up-and-down first few seasons in the Predators organization, Watson finally came into his own this season, bringing a physical element that the franchise was looking for. Watson is working on his third NHL contract after taking a cut on his second. I can see Watson getting back to his previous salary levels… maybe even a little more. Watson has elected to go to salary arbitration, I would be surprised if he got to the scheduled July 24th hearing. My AAV projection $2 million over four years.
Frederick Gaudreau - This 24 year old center wouldn’t have even made this piece before the Stanley Cup. When Ryan Johansen went down, Gaudreau stepped up, scoring the game winners in both game 3 and 4, helping the Predators tie the series and in the process, became the first NHL player to score his first three career NHL goals in a Cup Final since 1944. I don’t know if it is enough to really get him a huge boost, but he has increased his value. He may be able to negotiate a multi-year contract with the first year or two being a two-way… Gaudreau did not choose to go to arbitration. My AAV projection is $1 million per yr over three years with the first year or two being a two-way contract.
Pontus Aberg - This will be an interesting one. Aberg showed flashes of being completely NHL ready and was an almost point-per-game player for the Admirals. This contract will be a transitional one, one that will heavily incent him to complete his transition to the NHL. If he can bridge his performance between regular season and the playoffs, he will put himself in great position for his next contract. I expect a reasonable increase in dollars and perhaps three years in term… Aberg did not have the ability to go to arbitration.
Getting everyone back in the fold should take about $16 million of the $20.7 million available, leaving approximately $4.7 million in cap space left for cushion and a potential re-signing of Mike Fisher.
65 days until training camp opens 70 days until the first preseason game 86 days until the season opener 91 days until the home opener.
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