Jack Roslovic's 'Red Flag' is a Myth: Why He Will Thrive With the Maple Leafs

For anyone who has followed me closely, you likely know that I’ve been banging the Jack Roslovic drum for a while now, dating back to last summer. Well before he signed with the Edmonton Oiler last summer, I mentioned why I felt Roslovic was exactly what the Maple Leafs needed to add to their roster. At the time there was much opposition to this, but I felt his speed and transitional game was exactly what the Leafs needed more of on their roster. 

Now that the Maple Leafs and John Chayka have finally brought Roslovic to Toronto on a two-year deal, main have continued to run with that narrative focused on what many consider Roslovic’s ‘red flag’. For many, Roslovic’s hot starts and second half drop offs remain a major concern. People often look at his 21 goals with the Oilers and 22 goals the year before with the Hurricanes, and point out how the majority of that production came early in his seasons. 

Many call him streaky, claiming that he disappears down the stretch when his team’s need him most. But if you take the time and dig into the deployment data, the truth flips the script entirely. Roslovic’s production declines aren't a reflection of his play falling off a cliff, they are almost always a direct result of his coach completely shifting his role.

The Edmonton Deployment Trap (2025-26)

Last season with the Edmonton Oilers, Roslovic put up 21 goals in just 69 games. Of those goals 15 of those 21 goals came before January 31.

In November and December when Roslovic was at his most productive, he was a fixture in the team’s top six. Roslovic found immediate chemistry playing on a second line with Leon Draisaitl and Vasily Podkolzin. At the time he was logging significant ice time, Roslovic found himself playing 17 to 18 minutes a night most nights. He was playing with an elite top line center who could find him in open space, and he was given the five on five minutes required to get into an offensive rhythm.

But as things changed for the Oilers and the team made roster moves in the back half of the season, Roslovic found himself as the odd man out. At which point, he was bumped down to play with the third and fourth line, playing with less offensively skilled players like Jason Dickinson, Josh Samanski, and Curtis Lazar. Unsurprisingly, with this change, Roslovic saw his ice time drop. During the stretch run, he was often struggling to play more than 12 minutes on most nights. 

You can't expect a fast, transitional winger to drive his own offense when he's flanked by shutdown players who are more focused on a dump and chase style, playing five fewer minutes a game. When you take a skilled finisher away from top-tier facilitators and cut his ice time by 30%, the production is bound to dry up.

The Carolina Mirror Image (2024-25)

If you think the Edmonton Oilers situation was just an isolated incident, take a look at the 2024/25 season with the Carolina Hurricanes, a year where he finished the season with an average of 13:49 of ice time per game. In that time he scored a career high 22 goals, of which 17 of them came before December 31.

The script was eerily similar. To begin the year, Roslovic was given high end offensive opportunities and averaged above 15 minutes of ice time per night playing alongside Sebastian Aho and Jesperi Kotkaniemi. In that situation he thrived. But as Hurricanes tried to optimize their roster for a playoff push and bolstered their team by adding Mikko Rantanen, at which point Roslovic was the odd man out. For the remainder of the season he played roughly 10-11 minutes a night alongside Mark Jankowski, William Carrier, and Eric Robinson on the fourth line in a role he wasn’t suited for.

Another example of how you cannot put a player whose primary asset is his speed and scoring and transition them to a checking line, cut his even strength minutes down to the bare minimum, and expect him to maintain a 25-goal pace.

Reunited: The "Superman Line" Connection

This brings us to Toronto, and why Jim Hiller’s training camp deployment is one of the smartest things the Leafs have done all summer. Right now, Roslovic is skating on the top line on the right side with Matthew Knies and Auston Matthews.

It’s not known by many, but Roslovic and Matthews have a deep history and friendship which began over a decade ago. At the team Matthews and Roslovic accounted for two thirds of the USNTDP's "Superman Line" with Matthew Tkachuk. The line were together when they won gold together at the 2015 Under-18 World Championship.

When Roslovic is set up for success while playing with top level talent and given the ice time to match, it’s simple, he finishes. He’s the quick transition player who can transport the puck through the neutral zone with speed, backing off defensemen to create the type of space that Matthews needs to operate. When he’s not carrying the puck, he just needs to use his speed to hunt pucks while letting Matthews and Knies do the rest of the work.

The Bottom Line for the Leafs

The blueprint for success here is very simple. If the Leafs treat Roslovic like a versatile puzzle piece and bump his ice time down to 12 minutes or play him on the third line the minute he goes two games without a point, history will repeat itself. His underlying transition numbers will stay strong, but the box score stats will plummet.

But if Hiller commits to leaving him in the top six, giving him the 15+ minutes per night in a his skill role Roslovic won't just avoid the second-half slump. He’ll shatter his career highs.