The time has come to for the Devils to begin thinking about the next contract for Simon Nemec. Nemec, who has just changed his representation from one top NHL agent in J.P. Barry to another in Craig Oster is likely seeking to maximize both term and dollars. Early rumors have it as the young Slovak's deal would start at that in which Luke Hughes was awarded this past fall. Luke's 7 year, $63m deal made him the highest paid player in New. Jersey(along with Dougie Hamilton). Has Nemec shown enough to warrant this type of deal? Let's take a look at a few factors.
The Brothers
When it came to the Luke Hughes deal, there were a few intangibles that the youngest Hughes brother brought beyond just his hockey ability. Most notably was the fact that locking him up for seven years would almost ensure that Jack Hughes stays for at least that time. Despite GM Tom Fitzgeralds mishandling of the situation, with Jack and Luke here it still makes NJ the most likely destination for Quinn Hughes. In this game of Monopoly, the Devils find themselves with Pacific and North Carolina Avenues, adding Pennsylvania Avenue isn't a question of "if" but more "how"? Will they barter with a few Railroads before next year's trade deadline? Or will they simply just land on the spot and buy it from the bank in free agency?
In addition to Luke's value going up due to the potential of rostering his brothers, the value also drives up due to his pedigree. Jack and Quinn are two of the most talented players in hockey, they've both matured extremely well at the NHL level, making Luke a prime candidate to do the same.
Something working against Simon Nemec here is that there is no Jack Nemec, no Quinn Nemec. No precedent exists that will give us a better glimpse into his future other than what we see before our own eyes, which is the potential of greatness with a little less gaurantee. In addition, locking up Simon only helps NJ in keeping Simon, he doesn't help the Devils in their efforts to obtain/retain two of the top 20 players in hockey as Luke does.
Play Thus Far
Since being drafted second overall by New Jersey in 2022, Nemec has had his highs and lows with the club. On the bright side, #17 has showed to have a flair for the dramatic, a clutch gene that many players do not possess. A great skater, elite shot, and excellent awareness in the offensive zone. Where he is deficient, as is with most young D-men would be in his own zone. Can he develop defensively? Of course. Will he develop defensively? I'd bet money that he will. But to what extent?
Playing Time
Whispers last season (although poorly translated) from Nemec's camp seemed to voice frustration with his extended AHL role. The NHL is where Nemec wants to be and to be honest, where he does deserve to be at this point in his career. However, for a player who has seemingly thrived with more ice time, will that be available long term in NJ? With Luke already here and the desire for obtaining Quinn Hughes at some point, what exactly would Nemec's role be with the Devils?
Verdict
Signing the former second overall pick to the eight year max at $7.5-8.5m would be a win for the Devils. With the cap going up to $113m by 2027-28, a $9m hit is more like a $7m-ish hit today. With his age, extended term and a somewhat low AAV in relation to his value this at the very least makes for a very desirable trade chip for the Devils. If $9.5 is what it takes that may be stretching it, however shouldn't really matter in the grand scheme of things. DO NOT GIVE ANOTHER NTC/NMC. If it is a must it needs to be extremely limited.
In the end, Nemec is a player with somewhat similar success to Luke Hughes to this point. In addition he has somewhat similar upside to the youngest Hughes boy. The only difference here is the intagible/non-hockey benefits that Luke brings to NJ. A similar, but not greater contract is a win.
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