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Is anyone else getting tired of hearing the term “regression…? The stats buffs and analysts are practically screaming at this point as the Flames keep finding ways to win, and continue to sit in 3rd position in the hyper-competitive Pacific division.
Every day another writer puts together a piece full of charts and stats, pointing out how the Flames 11.25% shooting percentage is unsustainable, and how this team can’t possibly continue to play at a .625 winning percentage.
Personally, I’m not sold on the fact that they Flames can’t keep this going, but the good news is this:
They don’t have to.
Currently the Flames are on pace for 106 points. They haven’t had a 3 game losing streak since January 22 of last year, which works out to 56 games without losing 3 in a row. No other team in the NHL even comes close to that streak, as Tampa Bay currently sits in 2nd place with 40 games since their last 3 game slump.
This is a team that doesn’t like to lose. In fact, their record following a loss this season is a sparkling 9-0-1.
Part of this success might be a result of their mindset from the opening game of the season, as coach Bob Hartley has had the team in a playoff mindset right from the beginning. As he did last year, the Flames bench boss has broken the season down into 7-game segments, treating each individual segment as a playoff series, and instilling a playoff level of urgency into his players. So far they have won all 3 rounds of these hypothetical playoff series, and sit 2-2 in the fourth round.
So what’s all this talk about regression anyway? Well, part of it has already happened. Jonas Hiller (2-3 in his last 5 starts, now sitting at a .913 SP) and Karri Ramo (3-0 in his last 3 starts, fresh off a shutout in San Jose, sporting a .911 SP) appear to have leveled out and find themselves battling once again for starts.
Team shooting percentage continues to ride high though, despite the fact that Curtis Glencross has only 4 goals on 43 shots for a personal shooting percentage of 9.3% which is well below his career average of 14.7%. You can see in the image below that a significant portion of this increased shooting success is likely a result of the locations where shots are being generated:
Bob Hartley has the team employing a chip and chase zone entry that seems to be allowing his players to capitalize on their speed, getting pucks effectively to good scoring locations in the slot.
http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/icetrack
Perhaps the increased shooting percentage isn’t all dumb luck afterall…
The Flames do continue to be outshot on a fairly regular basis, although we might be seeing some improvement in this area as well. The Flames managed to outshoot Chicago, New Jersey, and Anaheim prior to giving up 32 shots to the Sharks in their 2-0 shutout win where they only managed to post 19 shots of their own.
Whether this is a sign of improvement, or simply a statistical anomaly borne from a small sample size remains to be seen, but the good news is that this roster should continue to improve as players return from injury over the next several weeks.
Joe Colborne is first in line, and will hopefully help to offset any offensive slump that might result as shooting accuracy drops off for the likes of Markus Granlund and Josh Jooris. While he has yet to score a goal so far in 2014, he managed to post 8 assists in 11 games prior to his injury and he does a tremendous job of opening up space for his linemates in the top 6.
Mason Raymond and Matt Stajan shouldn’t be far behind, and both players should help to improve the Flames possession numbers as they bring veteran leadership to a very young lineup.
Ultimately despite the success that this team has seen so far, there is still tremendous room for improvement.
Last year, Dallas took the final spot in the playoff picture with 91 points. In order to match that point total, the Flames would need to play out the rest of their schedule at a .525 winning percentage. Even with some regression, I’m finding myself becoming a believer.
How about you? Do you think the Flames will find a way into the Playoffs?
Thanks for reading!