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As the NHL playoffs in on with another do or die game tonight between the Montreal Canadiens and the NY Rangers at MSG, other team's fans talk about the future what might be coming. The graphic below is a snap shot of a listing from the great site Hockey Reference. It shows a listing of active defense players from that age of 25 to 36 who have scored at least 15 or more goals and 30 or more assists in a single season.
There is one player on that list who is a lightning rod of opinion around Winnipeg and that player is Dustin Byfuglien. So when looking at that list again does anything stand out?
Here is another list of defense players, age 28 (Feb 1) to age 36 who have scored 15 or more goals and 30 plus assists ever in a single season.
All of a sudden that list gets a lot longer and a lot more elite in terms of the company on it. Of the 99 players on that list, only 10 of them did this before the 1980-81 season began. Last season at the age of 28 or older, Byfuglien and Shea Weber were the only two players to achieve those numbers in the entire NHL.
Here is the list again with players at age 31 as of Feb 1, scoring 15 goals and 30 assists all time.
Of that list of 46 players only 13 over the age of 33 met that plateau. Lidstrom x3, M. Schneider, B. Leetch, Visnovsky, MacInnis x2, Bourque x3, Potvin, and Larry Robinson. That is a very select group of players. Is Dustin Byfuglien of the same ilk?
It seems like a silly idea to trade one of the top scorers on the Jets. A player, unique and perhaps unlike any other in the NHL, he can skate, he can shoot, he can dangle, and run the point, he can stand in front of the net and he can play defence too right?
Well that’s what many challenge with the super-sized and super talented Byfuglien. Can he really play defence, with a style and comittment that the Jets need him too, or more importantly the fan base expects him too? Last season he was a -20 which is a huge drop from the lockout season of -1 and -8 in 2011-12. We al know what plus/minus is a dubious stat to use but that very number, -20, is what Jets fans are hanging their hats on. It’s not simply the mean temperature for January and February thus it should be given a deeper look if it is to garner so much meaning into Buf’s defensive ability, or lack thereof.
This past season Buff played the most even strength minutes with Jokinen, Enstrom, Wheeler, and Setoguchi. The last full season of 2011-12 Buff played most even strength minutes with Enstrom, Wheeler, Ladd and Little. Jokinen is not Bryan Little and nor is Setoguchi close to Andrew Ladd in terms of a quality of a teammate for production. Look at it this way, Setoguchi had a 12 point swing to -7 as Jet and obviously that does not help Buff.
The interesting thing about looking at the With or Without You or WOWY stats is you can look at the converse, who the player is playing against the most too. The place I use to do this is Hockey Analysis. If we go back and look at the dreadful -20 from last season we will see who Byfuglien faced off against the most.
Here are the 10 most frequent forwards Byfuglien faced last season by even strength time on ice. Backes, Steen, Oshie, Koivu, Kane, Seguin, Benn, Saad, Hornqvist, Wilson. Here are the 10 most frequent defence Byfuglien faced last season by even strength time on ice. Pietrangelo, Bouwmeester, Goligoski, Suter, Weber, Brodin, Jones, Johnson, Keith, Daley.
We’re not in Kansas anymore Toto. That’s an awful lot of good and great players to face for any player let alone Byfuglien and his rotating cast of partners.
Let’s look at 2012-13 now.
Here are the 10 most frequent forwards Byfuglien faced last season by even strength time on ice. Backstrom, Brouwer, J, Staal, Kovalchuk, Crosby, Ribeiro, Ovechkin, Kunitz, Okposo, St. Louis.
Here are the 10 most frequent defence Byfuglien faced last season by even strength time on ice. Alzner, Carlson, Campbell, Boychuk, Girardi, Greene, Ehrhoff, Martin, Chara, Strachan.
As an FYI, it is even weaker opposition in 2011-12, particularly on defence.
The point of all of this information is to try to determine what Byfuglien is and isn’t because that’s what the Jets should be doing right now. This piece has been in the ‘on deck’ circle for a bit now but with Eklund’s news about his name popping up again in trade rumours, which is no surprise, it warranted a quick publication.
If the Jets do decide to trade Buff they should do it very strategically knowing that the law of diminishing returns with the player’s output is a very real possibility. Buff’s current deal ends when he is 31 and as seen above that’s a precarious age for high scoring defenders. Things can drop off fast and at that point you have to rely on your defensive skills the one thing every one says Byfuglien is lacking. Simply getting Buff out of the Central division might be enough to overcome some of the negativity that comes with his defensive play but more importantly it’s how Chevy has to value and sell Buff.
He’s more valuable than you think. Aside from who/where he may be best suited to play against his contract makes him an extremely affordable and great value player for two more years. He’s worth more than you think.
In fact Byfuglien should be able to garner a huge return, one that could give the Jets an opportunity to change the very make-up of the team. However, that’s only one part of the change and some would assume that Buff is the problem so that’s why he should be traded. That’s not the case, he should be moved because a team can get two productive years out of him at an affordable salary and has Buff’s value ever been higher? The other part of the problem is still the Jets depth within the organization and perhaps some player usage. The latter may be changed via a new head coach in Paul Maurice but the former is up to GM Kevin Cheveldayoff.
The simple comment after reading all this on trading Buff might be ‘good, go use him to get depth,’ but that’s the wrong move. Ask Calgary how that worked out for Phaneuf, or Boston for Seguin (still debatable), Boston with Thornton, and Edmonton with Pronger, and so on. It can’t be about volume it has to be about value and a whole bunch of used Hyundai’s are not as valuable as a nice 5 series BMW. That’s exactly what Chevy has remember any time he engages in a conversation about Buff with another team, it’s not about volume.
Yes, it is time to shop Byfuglien. It’s time to move an aging asset with a few good probably good years left for something younger and better suited to the Jets conference reality. This is one of those decisions where a GM has to look at a player who might be the most popular on the team and with the fans and realize that business comes first. That being said it’s not a move Chevy has to do if the return is not of sufficient value.
The other variable in this scenario is that moving Byfuglien might be the first player for player deal that Chevy makes. That’s a pretty high-stakes situation to have to enter the ‘real’ trade market not one of draft picks or prospects. It’s for that reason the Jets will proceed with caution, just like almost everything else they do. That’s not a bad approach but every player has a shelf life and right now Buff may not get any fresher or sweeter than he is this off-season. This isn’t low-hanging fruit we’re talking about, it’s nicely ripened and a bit difficult to get but in the right situation it will taste very, very good. It’s time for Chevy to find that situation and if the value is there pull that trigger, finally.
Here are a few destinations I think Byfuglien might fit:
Carolina Philadelphia Washington
Oh yeah, one last thing… Any team that Chevy talks to has to be on the list already submitted by Buff on where he would go.