It's a match-up of two Original Six teams for the right to represent the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup Finals. The Rangers persevered through a pair of Game 7 contests against the Flyers and Penguins. Montreal swept Tampa Bay and then rallied from a 3-2 series deficit against their long-time rival, the Bruins, to win games 6 and 7 to advance to this point. By virtue of finishing three points ahead of New York, Montreal earned home-ice advantage with the series kicking off Saturday at 1PM.
Beyond just the color scheme of the jerseys, these are two teams that play a fairly similar style in many regards. From speed through the neutral zone to balanced scoring to production from the blue line and elite goaltending, Montreal and New York are if not mirror-images of each other, fairly close. In addition, both teams used a strong forecheck and counterattack to advance through the first two rounds.
Ironically, the Rangers last appearance in and Cup win came in 1994 while Montreal was similar the year before, in 1993, earning their 24th Cup. The two teams have met in the playoffs 14 times, with each squad winning seven times. Personally, I still want revenge for 1979 when Bunny Laroque was hit in the mask during warm-ups, forcing Ken Dryden back through the pipes and he stoned NY aided offensively by Steve Shutt. The squads last met in the playoffs in 1996 with the Rangers beating the Canadiens in six games.
For the Rangers, two keys are Henrik Lundqvist exorcising his Bell Center demons and finding a way to slow down a potent Montreal power play. For Montreal, it's shifting from playing a bigger, slightly slower team to one that has better speed through the neutral zone and a team that believes it's one of destiny with an angel on the crest of their shoulders, based on the impact of the passing of Martin St. Louis' mother, France. I dislike even including that here but it's clear that how the team has rallied around St. Louis played a key role in the comeback against Pittsburgh. In addition, there are lots of cross-stories between the two teams, which I will cover below.
Line Combinations and Analysis:
Rangers:
Forwards: 20 Chris Kreider - 21 Derek Stepan - 61 Rick Nash 67 Benoit Pouliot - 16 Derick Brassard - 36 Mats Zuccarello 62 Carl Hagelin - 19 Brad Richards - 26 Martin St. Louis 22 Brian Boyle - 28 Dominic Moore - 15 Derek Dorsett
Extras: Jesper Fast (played first two games against Philly and has been on pine since then), Daniel Carcillo (played key role in Game 5 win over Philly, could get in if Dorsett struggles) and JT Miller (played games 3-4 versus Philly, depending on how series goes, play of Carcillo or Dorsett, he could see action).
(The Rangers offense relied on balanced scoring to get past the Flyers. Eight Rangers tallied two goals to beat Philly, which those of us that have followed the team all year came as no surprise, since AV likes to roll four lines. That is what makes this team different than others, especially the bottom-six.
Against Pittsburgh, the Brassard line did a substantial amount of the damage, bolstered by solid play from the other three lines. The return of Chris Kreider, starting in Game 4, was a huge boost for NY, given his size, speed and skill. Rick Nash continues to do everything but score, upping his physical play as the playoffs worn on. Nash has shown no reluctance to shoot, but despite all the shots, he has yet to light the lamp. Hagelin was productive against Pittsburgh while Richards had the GWG in Game 7 and been the defacto captain, on the ice and in the locker room. St. Louis comes back home to Montreal and has to deal with the burial of his mother, now slated for Sunday since the game will be Saturday and at 1PM. The fourth line played a major role in the series win. Moore and Boyle on the PK helped hold Pitt to 1-for-20 on the man advantage while Boyle opened the scoring in Game 7, converting a 4-on-2 led by Moore and Dorsett.
Once again, a key is Nash, but beyond him, the key up front is Richards. If he can replicate what he did against Philly and Pitt, especially since St. Louis is on his line and he has speed in Hagelin to create and finish chances, then NY can roll the four lines. We know what the Brassard line - which had another strong series versus Pittsburgh can do - while the fourth line is something NY lacked in 2012 and 2013. It will be interesting to see who AV plays them against, the Pacioretty line seems likely, to blunt the effect of that grouping).
Defense 27 Ryan McDonagh - 5 Dan Girardi 18 Marc Staal - 6 Anton Stralman 17 John Moore - 8 Kevin Klein
Extras: Raphael Diaz (a heck of a lot better than having to dress Roman Hamrlik) and Justin Falk.
(The D struggled at times against Pittsburgh, but really rallied in Games 5-7 and the Rangers the league in fewest shots against at 28.4 due to a solid team D philosophy. McDonagh, struggled most of the series against Philly before righting the ship and having his best game of the series in Game 7; got better as the Pittsburgh series continued. He has the chance to show Montreal up close and personal what they gave up when they traded their 12th overall pick in 2007 to the Rangers in the Scott Gomez deal. Girardi has for the most part been good in the playoffs and played a key role along with McDonagh in neutralizing Sidney Crosby. Staal (plus-six) has been down the Rangers' best d-man this playoffs. He and Stralman (five assists, plus-seven) matched up against the Crosby line, nearly as much as the McDonagh-Girardi one, and was able to handle their own, even when Crosby and Malkin were split. This is the series where John Moore's speed through the neutral zone could play a big role. He and Kevin Klein have been solid, not spectacular, and looks for Michel Therrien to try and get his top lines against this pairing while AV tries to minimize the time on ice this duo has against those lines. Diaz, who replaced Moore against Pittsburgh, would love to get some his revenge on his former teammates and could be used during this series if Moore or Klein struggle. In addition, if the PP is inept again, his shot and puck-moving could be a key there to jumpstart it. The two defenses are solid top to down, with Montreal having the elite scoring d-man in PK Subban, also selected in 2007, while NY may have a slight hair of more balance, but if so, it's minimal. The key will be for the Rangers to match Montreal's speed through the neutral zone without taking too many penalties, leading to PP chances for a hot Canadiens' team).
Goaltending 30 Henrik Lundqvist 33 Cam Talbot
(Not much to add here. If you watched Game 7 against Pittsburgh, especially the last 10 minutes, you saw Lundqvist as an impenetrable stone wall. He might have been outplayed by Marc-Andre Fleury in Game 3 and had a so-so Game 4, but was a beast to help NY rally from 3-1 down. The goaltending match-up is basically even, whoever is able to get a slight edge will likely win the series, that's how close it is. In addition, Lundqvist, who hasn't won in Montreal since 2009 or played there since January 15, 2012 is 2-4-2, with a 4.56 GAA, .857SV% his last nine starts agaisnt Montreal. He could use a strong start to Game 1 to avoid the whispers that are out there that Talbot should start. Unsure who they have been watching in the playoffs, but unless there was god forbid a serious injury, under no circumstances would you sit Lundqvist. Lundqvist will need to be at the top of his game to match Price and help NY advance to the SCF. If that happens and the offense does what we think they can do, NY has a good shot against Montreal).
Canadiens
Forwards Max Pacioretty-David Desharnais-Brendan Gallagher Michael Bournival-Tomas Plekanec-Thomas Vanek Rene Bourque-Lars Eller-Brian Gionta Brandon Prust-Daniel Briere-Dale Weise
Scratches - Alex Galchenyuk (missed first two rounds with knee injury from April 9 but was cleared for contact, likely back this series) and Travis Moen
(Like the Rangers, the Canadiens can roll four lines and have a fourth line that is productive. Pacioretty is their sniper, especially from between the circles. while Desharnais rebounded from a poor 2013 campaign to earn his job back as Montreal's top center. Plekanec and Vanek have shown some decent chemistry with Vanek, a last minute trade acquisition from Buffalo, really balancing out the top two lines. Vanek got hot with four goals against Boston but can disappear at times. Eller, the third line center, is tied for lead among Montreal forwards with nine points in the playoffs while Bourque was hot early but scoreless in the last six and Gionta is the captain and leader of the team. Briere, who came close to getting scratched late in the Boston series, continued his run as a playoff performer with much of his time coming on the man-advantage. Prust would love to really New York what they missed when they let him go to free agency and sign with Montreal a few years ago while Weise has Rangers ties as well, so the revenge factor exists there as well. Montreal leads the playoffs with 3.27 goals per game and their speed and effectiveness through the neutral zone and down low gives the Rangers different challenges then they faced against Philly and Pitt. If Galchenyuk does return, he could be paired again with Gallagher (four goals and five assists, tied with Eller) with Vanek moving up and Bournival down or out).
Defense Josh Gorges-PK Subban Andrei Markov-Alexei Emelin Nathan Beaulieu-Mike Weaver
Scratches - Francis Bouillon and Douglas Murray (healthy)
(As mentioned above, like NY, this is a very solid defense. Gorges eats up minutes and is the defensive, defenseman, who enables Subban to roam when needed, and if he has a minor weakness, it is in his zone. Gorges play 24 minutes per while Subban, aided by his PP TOI, is at 26:45 per and leads the team in scoring with 12 points. Markov and Emelin see much of the time in their own zone, though Markov is the more offensive d-man of the two. Beaulieu, selected 17th overall in 2011, sat the entire first round and first five games of round 2, but played a key role in the Game 6 and 7 wins over Boston. He has tremendous upside, which is one of the reasons why Montreal was able to deal Diaz and could move on from Markov after this season. Weaver proved to be a flat out steal from Florida at the deadline, coming over for a 2015 fifth rounder, playing major minutes on the PK and is another solid shot blocker on the Montreal blueline.
In the past, the Rangers used to target a blueliner and punish him - as they did with Mike Green and Erik Karlsson - and I thought they might do with Kris Letang or Matt Niskanen or Paul Martin, but because Pitt has more options than Philly did in that regard, that could be why NY played it more straight up. On Montreal, Subban is far and away the catalyst from the blue line for Montreal, so if there is anyone the Rangers would target, he would be the one.
Goaltenders Carey Price Peter Budaj
(Against Philly and Pitt, the Rangers had a clear edge in goal. Even if Ray Emery or Steve Mason or Fleury stole a game, Lundqvist had the edge. That is not the case in this series, as Price has been his equal. Price posted a 2.32 GAA and .927 SV% during the year but has upped those stellar numbers in the postseason, posting 2.15 GAA and .926 SV%. In addition, he historically has had the Rangers' number, especially at home, where he is 7-1-1 in career vs New York with a 1.18 GAA, .961 SV% and five shutouts. This year, he allowed just one goal on 75 shots in two games and he outdueled Lundqvist - along with some help from his offense- in Canada's gold medal win over Sweden this year)
PP Units:
Pouliot-Brassard-Zucc-McDonagh-Richards Kreider-Stepan-St. Louis-Girardi-Moore
(The Rangers PP was brilliant in games 1 and 2 against Philly and then fell off the face of the earth. They went through a playoff record-tying stretch of 36 straight futile attempts but came through with big goals in Game 5 (Kreider) and Game 7 (Richards). Overall, they are just 6-for-55 in the playoffs but they key for them is to gain the blueline. Philly changed their strategy, stacking the blue line, which Pitt tried at times as well. Kreider gives NY a big body up front, which allows helps the dump and chase if the opponent stacks the blue line. Montreal is 20-for-25 on the penalty kill overall and went 15-for-18 against Boston, so they can be exposed, especially to traffic in front and quick puck movement, though they were at 85.1 success ratio during the season.)
Pacioretty-Desharnais-Vanek-Markov-Subban Briere-Plekanec-Gallagher -Gorges-Emelin
(The Rangers faced good power plays in Philly and Pittsburgh and had varying degrees of success. They struggled against Philly but stoned Pitt, stopping 19-of-20 chances in that series and 34-for-41 overall. They take a step up in class here. Montreal, relying on Subban and Markov blasting from the points with Pacioretty and Vanek down low, are 10-for-38 this postseason. Briere has shown he can be a sniper here as well and the second line has talent as well. For NY, obviously, first and foremost, staying out of the box is key. Then if not, the play up front with Boyle-Hagelin, D. Moore-St. Louis and Nash-Stepan will be critical to shutting off passing lanes to aid the big four on D. In addition, they block a ton of shots, which will be more of a challenge given the shots that Subban and Markov have. Of course, Lundqvist as the back line of defense will need to be a stalwart. Montreal can move the puck quickly, creating gaps and openings from the point and then crash the net. This may be the key battle, since if NY can just slow - not even stop the Montreal PP - it could be enough to win the series)
Rangers (Metro Division) vs. Canadiens (Atlantic Division) - Eastern Conference Finals Game 1: Rangers at Canadiens, Sat., May 17 at 1 PM (NBC, CBC) Game 2: Rangers at Canadiens, Mon., May 19 at 8PM (NBC, CBC) Game 3: Canadiens at Rangers, Thu., May 23 at TBD (NBC, CBC) Game 4: Canadiens at Rangers, Sat., May 24 at TBD (NBC, CBC) Game 5*: Rangers at Canadiens TBD* Game 6*: Canadiens at Rangers, TBD* Game 7*: Rangers at Canadiens, TBD*
Possible Unsung Heroes: We all know how important the big boys are to the Rangers and Canadiens, which includes the top-4 on the blue line for NY and similar for Montreal, especially Subban. I want to focus on two players each, while not unsung, may be keys to the series.
For the Rangers, against Philly, I said Hagelin and the fourth line. I missed on Hagelin, though he had somewhat of an impact, but hit on the fourth line. Against Pitt, I went with whoever played opposite Richards and Hagelin and the fourth line again. It ended up being St. Louis when Kreider returned, so that's a big unfair as he is not unsung, but the fourth line was huge again. This series, I will go with Stepan and Pouliot. Stepan, the Rangers' #1 center has had his moments this post-season but been inconsistent. If he can produce as he did during the regular season, it will take some pressure off the other two lines and possibly put Nash and Kreider into even better positions to succeed. For Pouliot, he returns to face a former team. He is the least publicized of the "third" line but does a lot of the dirty work, especially in front of the net to open space for Zucc and Brass.
For Montreal, it's Desharnais and Galchenyuk. Desharnais may be the least publicized top center, especially playing in Montreal, but is a key component of the attack. As others have said, he has had a difficult playoffs, but came up big in Game 7 against Boston and his speed and stickhandling could help Montreal gain the neutral and offensive zone against NY. If Galchenyuk is healthy, he will give Montreal fresh legs and another player who can score. Galchenyuk could play on any number of lines and give Therrien additional options up front.
Edges:
Even-Strength - Mon scored 36 goals in 11 games, 10 on PP, two SHG and one ENG, so 24 on 5-on-5. New York scored 34 in 14 games, six on PPG, no SHG and two ENG, so 26 on 5-on-5. Montreal much better on PP, NY edge in goals but in two more games, fairly close but the Canadiens have an edge up front
PP - No contest, Montreal, as seen by the numbers
PK - Rangers, especially seeing how they played against Pitt after struggling against Phi while Montreal has regressed a bit after a good regular season
Forwards - Canadiens mildly, slightly more talent up front, but offset a bit by Rangers edge in bottom-six, regardless which line - Richards or Brassard - you consider the third line and production from fourth line, even though Montreal has a good one as well.
Defense - Rangers, though gap is narrow due to Subban's post-season and good 1-6 for Montreal
Goalie - Even, and yes that factors in Lundqvist historical play up in Monreal
Playoff Experience - lots of experience on both teams. Vigneault (2011 in Van) and Therrien (2008 with Pitt) have been to Cup Finals. Rangers went to ECF two years ago, though Prust was on that team, and NY is looking to avenge that loss. Mild edge to NY.
Coaching - very, very, very slight edge to Rangers as AV has been a steady hand throughout and the players believe in the system. He gets to go back where he started his coaching career and recommended Therrien as a minor-league coach for Montreal when he was coach of the Canadiens. Therrien has moved from his trap style in Pitt to embracing a more wide-open one in Montreal. AV has a bit more overall experience and was a voice of reason and steady hand even when the team struggled to start the season, which gives New York a very slight edge here.
Intangibles - NY is a lot more rested, having three days off and a normal schedule - possibly one with more than even expected rest, given the extra day off between games 2 and 3, though rumors are Game 3 could be Wed and 4 on Sat. - after going six games in nine nights. Montreal comes off an emotional win, rallying from 3-2 down against a hated rival while NY did the same versus Pitt, rallying from 3-1 down. Both teams have scored early in games, Montreal 7-0 in such instances and NY, 7-2, with scoring tallying 14 of their 34 goals in the first period. The Rangers have struggled in the second stanza, so that is something to watch as well. In addition, New York had never beaten Pitt in the playoffs or rallied from 3-1 down until they beat the Penguins, so the recent record against Montreal will likely not be a concern.
Prediction - close series, with the Rangers winning in seven. I know I wrote opposite in my Eastern Conference preview as part of my overall Stanley Cup one but I blame that on post-hernia surgery brain cramp. I think Kreider has a big series while Lundqvist slightly outplays Price in Game 7 to win it.
This time of year, you need to play hard and pay attention for every second you are on the ice, one slip up or lapse in concentration could mean the difference between winning a series and advancing or losing and going home.
It’s go time. Let’s Go Rangers!!! The Drive to the Stanley Cup continues in Montreal on Saturday. (I will be back Saturday night or Sunday AM with Game 1 recap)