Prospects. Very little creates more of a divergence of an opinion other than prospects. Of course, you have the consensus elite ones, but after that, personal preference prevails a lot. In addition, style of play by a team can make a lesser prospect in one organization into more of an higher-tier one elsewhere. Last, as we have seen, rating a prospect in an inexact science, and just because one is rated highly, there is no guarantee he will pan out, similar for a lower-rated one that miraculously or surprisingly becomes a productive player. You can measure certain tangibles, but in many cases, it's the intangibles that separate two equally rated or at times widely divergent players from one another.
To me, and this is not a viewed shared by all, prospects fall into two categories. The first one drives the organizational rating, which is likely why New York is so far down in the rankings by several sites. In lieu of several in that first bucket, the second takes on added importance, especially given the length and attrition that goes on within a season. I am no prospect expect and defer to sites like Hockey's Future, so Leslie Treff, Blueshirt Bulletin and Jess Rubinstein, McKeen's Hockey and Gus Katsaros, The Sports Forecaster, ESPN'S Corey Pronman and the Hockey News. Many, not all of them, ascribe to the importance of number one and minimal focus on two below. In addition, Adam French, who has been doing a great job rankings each team's top-10, will have his own, which may differ than the below.
Here are the two:
1) Elite Prospects 2) Plug-in depth within the organization
New York has seen their "elite" prospects graduate over the past several years, several of which are still on the team. Up front, you have Chris Kreider, Mats Zuccarello and to a lesser extent Carl Hagelin. In the past, Brandon Dubinsky and Ryan Callahan were key contributors that ended getting traded to bring in other assets. On defense, Marc Staal and Ryan McDonagh moved up the ladder in the organization. It is the graduation and trading of those assets, coupled with trading several first round picks the past few years, the tragic passing of Cherepanov, some questionable drafting in that round (yes, thinking McIlrath over Fowler, Tarasenko etc.) and picking in the botton-15 of the round that leaves NY a bit bereft of those "elite prospects.
The Rangers, in my opinion, have some good prospects, just none right now identifiable as elite. We all believe that Anthony Duclair and Pavel Buchnevich will pan out to be top-six wingers. Similar to Kevin Hayes, whose addition bumps the Rangers up the rankings a bit. The jury is out on McIlrath, who was to be their hulking, physical defenseman, yet injuries and ineffectiveness have delayed his arrival and impact. When you factor all this in, the lower ranking makes an abundance of sense, even though we believe that the team's prospects are better than what the ratings suggest.
Plug-in depth. When thinking about the column, this was an area of focus for me. To me, this is a key area, which in the past has been lacking a bit but this year, given the number of signings by New York and relative depth that exists, it may be an area of strength. In that regard, I found it interesting that Corey Pronman mentioned this in his team review on the Rangers:
The Rangers may not have a strong system, but they do have potential plug-in options in case of injury to their veteran roster. Kristo, Lindberg, Hayes, Fast, Haggerty, McIlrath and Allen could all reasonably find ways to get into the lineup, although all probably in depth roles.
Last year, that depth was lacking and challenged, esepcially early in the year with Callahan and Hagelin out, which was adversely impacted by Rick Nash's concussion. New York got off to a slow start, partially due to the lack of top-nine talent and plug-in options. As the year wore on and the players returned, that lack of depth wasn't as critical of an issue. During the season, adding Daniel Carcillo helped, as did the trade for Kevin Klein for Michael Del Zotto and acquisition of Raphael Diaz, but the plug-in-play options from the minors were limited at best. Even when they got the opportunity, like Fast or Miller, they failed to take full advantage of them. This year, with the signings NY made, especially the college free agents, the hope is that if the need arises, one or two them can step in and hold the fort until a regular returns.
One last factor is short-term versus long-term as well as contributor versus higher end focus. If you look at McKeen's top-150 ratings, which include skaters and goalies, three Rangers - Miller, Skjei and Hayes were ranked. The rankings seem to be more short-term focus while Corey Pronman's rankings, which has Buchnevich at 25 and Duclair on the cusp, is more of a longer-term, higher-end view. To win, you need high-end talent, but that can be acquired via the draft, free agency or trade, possibly using that prospect talent to bring in established, current talent. As mentioned above, the Rangers have used all three avenues. Right now, they may be light on the draft, upper tier talent, but that doesn't mean they lack contributing components that can help them win.
Without further adieu, as requested in a prior blog, here are my top-10 Rangers' prospects, using a long-term, higher-end view:
1) Anthony Duclair 2) Pavel Buchnevich 3) Brady Skjei 4) Kevin Hayes 5) JT Miller 6) Brandon Halverson 7) Dylan McIlrath 8) Jesper Fast 9) Danny Kristo 10) Conor Allen
Others include Oscar Lindberg, Adam Tambellini, Mat Bodie, Igor Sheshtyorkin, Ryan Haggerty, Ryan Graves, Steven Fogarty, Daniel Walcott, Richard Nejezchleb and Boo Nieves.
I will get to my view as to who will have an average, breakout, subpar year as season approaches. As mentioned, let me know if any other blog topic requests.