It’s getting ugly and we’re no longer talking about the weather or the ‘polar vortex’ that has gripped most of central and eastern North America. This is Jets hockey and the knives are out in full force now after what may be the latest in a series of confusing and disconcerting losses, the fourth in a row.
If you feel like Claude Noel when trying to make sense of what the eyes see and the states say imagine trying to fix it or change it. We’re in the repeating refrain, the Groundhog day cycle, and an endless maze that takes us back the beginning but never towards the end.
Want to write a list of problems for the Jets? It’s long so sharpen your pencil.
Execution Positioning Transition Skating Board work Zone Entries Zone Exits Power Play Penalty Kill Goaltending System Personel Blah, etc blah…
Any or all those issues show up when the Jets play and it only seems to be getting worse. Win three and then lose 4. Play a strong game against tough opposition then lose in spectacular fashion to a bottom dweller. Break one bad habit and start another. This is the third year of the same thing in Winnipeg, longer if you want to add in the Atlanta years. When does it stop? That’s really what the fans want.
When can we get off the carousel?
You can trade, you can bench, you can call-up, you can fire but will any of those actions make the cycle end? That’s what the debate is about now, not what the problem is… that’s obvious to everyone.
The topic of conversation has slowly shifted to what move or ‘how’ as I like to say, you get off the ride. No one wants to be on it anymore.
Some would suggest there is a ‘micro’ and ‘macro’ view of the Winnipeg Jets world/situation. Troy Westwood and Matt Leibl did just that on the TSN 1290 morning show today trying to bring some perspective and separation from the coach and the GM.
Was it towing a party line? One where sponsors and broadcast partners of the Winnipeg Jets are reluctant to criticize or comment negatively on the organization and point fingers in the same direction. Doubtful but that sense is growing amongst the fan base, the people paying the bulk of the freight every night for the third highest average ticket price in the league.
Westwood and Liebl, a good tandem even without their amigo and sometimes voice of dissent Jay Richardson, got into the idea of ‘micro’ and ‘macro’ and how it relates to the general manager of the Jets. At first I was critical of the notion and voiced that feeling via Twitter, in hindsight though the two had a very valid point. Criticism and expectations have to measured in context of the immediate and the long-term.
The Micro
It’s the games, the play, the wins, the losses, the strategy, the system, the exectution and the overall actions employed to win hockey games. It’s what the coach and players must worry about in their daily routines. This is a short-term specific view of what is required on a regular basis. It’s the GM’s job to provide for the right mix of assets and tools to allow the coach and players to succeed.
The Macro
By definition it means ‘large in scale or capability’ or ‘large in scope or extent’. A good way of thinking of macro is everyone’s favourite fancy stats buzzword ‘sample-size’. It’s a larger way of finding out if things are small problems or systemic repeating issues. Where do you think the Jets stand with their results after 176 games played?
If you look at two seasons of games prior to Winnipeg the Jets as Thrasher in 164 games have a .497 points percentage as Jets in 176 games they have a .503 percentage. It is a very slight improvement but not by much to be patting backs.
If you roll back by a season and continue doing two year averages it is as follows:
.484 .463 .527 .570 .508 .463 which is exactly 10 years ago the 2002-03 and 03-04 seasons average.
The question that comes to mind is this- when does the macro process begin to have an effect on the micro actions. Again Westwood and Liebl hit on this with the emergence of Trouba and Scheifele- it being noted that they are part of the macro process of developing players and realizing the benefits. Liebl used the words ‘delightfully surprised’ referring to Scheifele and I launched some criticism back.
Should the process of drafting and developing players not be a basic expectation for any team? Is that not part a mandatory part of any good franchise in a salary cap era? Would he or any of us use the term ‘sorely disappointed’ if Trouba and Scheifele were no bright spots? We can’t have it one way or the other because by being surprised the assumption is the expectation to be NHL players was not there.
Macro as it relates to the GM is the bigger picture of getting from point A (the relocation and reset of the franchise) to point B (the ability to compete for a championship). After 2.5 seasons is now not a reasonable point to see if the micro results are meeting the expectations of the macro process? If not to at least gauge progress?
To do so you have to look at the micro results- the wins, the losses and who/what is making them happen. Are Trouba and Scheifele influencing losses or wins? That might have been a debatable question two months ago but I think they influence wins. The stats may support or dispute that but you know the guys at Arctic Ice Hockey can tell you that.
If your macro process is bringing you pieces that are positive to your micro results yet the net sum of those results is not meeting your macro expectations (still with me?) then what happens next? It’s time to find the negatives and turn them into positives, like the ones you already have.
This is probably what Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review was trying to say in his appearance on TSN 1290 Monday afternoon. Get more of what is working, and less of what isn’t. I was wrong with Westwood and Leibl at first but it took some time to really consider what they were thinking. However, I think they need to consider that the sum of micro events has to be measured against the macro process and at the halfway point of Chevy’s first contract of 5 years what better time to do it?
So back we go, make a trade, fire the coach, bench somebody already, just get us off the cycle! Get us off the carousel, as it will take longer than the next 2.5 years to have more Troubas and Scheifeles. Change the micro now before it forces you to change the macro and a new cycle starts.
Just look at the cycle that needs to be broken and which direction the Jets are heading in RIGHT HEREnow. Not a pretty picture is it?