After a trio of late season collapses the past three seasons, Toronto GM Dave Nonis faces a perilous summer with a mandate from MLSE Chairman Tim Leiweke and new Team President Brendan Shanahan to change the culture of the club.
The task is difficult, as the club has many of their core players locked up on long term deals, but if Nonis decides to bring back essentially the same group or makes moves that do not put the club on a positive track, his tenure and that of head coach Randy Carlyle may not survive through the end of next season.
The former Canucks GM has been with the Leafs since 2008, serving as an assistant to Brian Burke until assuming control after Burke’s dismissal 17 months ago.
As GM, Nonis has made moves with mixed results, adding free agent David Clarkson and dealing for goaltender Jonathan Bernier, veteran forward Dave Bolland and defenseman Tim Gleason, but other than the addition of Bernier(who wrested the starting goalie job from James Reimer) those additions were made to bolster the core group of Dion Phaneuf, Phil Kessel, James van Riemsdyk and Joffrey Lupul.
It appears now that for the Leafs to take a step forward, they have to shake up that core group. Simply shaking up the club’s bottom six or swapping youngsters like Nazem Kadri or Jake Gardiner for more veterans would be akin to putting new tires on a car with a bad transmission.
Nonis has to make a signature deal, similar to the Todd Bertuzzi - Roberto Luongo swap between the Panthers and Canucks in 2006 and the current NHL landscape is perfectly set up for just that sort of big trade.
While it is unlikely that the Leafs would be willing to entertain deals for Kessel(starting an eight-year, $64 Million contract this July) or van Riemsdyk(with four years left at a very economical $4.25 Million salary), a trade involving Lupul coming off a disappointing 22 goal season is not out of the question.
The opportunity to shake the foundation of the Leafs club would be to move team captain Phaneuf, who has no trade protection until the start of his seven-year, $49 Million contract extension on July 1.
Many hockey insiders believe that Phaneuf’s $7 Million annual salary would be an impediment in getting a significant return back, but with the price of defensemen skyrocketing (PK Subban expecting to get over $8 Million per season on a new deal) and the best defenseman in free agency being Pittsburgh’s Matt Niskanen, the conditions appear to be right for Toronto to get a good return back.
Due to a combination of playoff failure, changes in management, the need to upgrade their roster, a weak free agent class or the increase of the league salary cap, teams such as Ottawa, Florida, Carolina, NY Islanders, New Jersey, Philadelphia, St. Louis, San Jose, Calgary, Vancouver and Pittsburgh are all poised to make changes this summer.
Toronto has to be among those willing to be bold and aggressive this offseason to change the fortunes of the Leafs from a perennial disappointment to a consistent success story.
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