The Pittsburgh Penguins and Montreal Canadiens are both in first place in their respective divisions and tonight they will play against one another.
I believe the Penguins will win the Metropolitan Division but I’m not so sure the Canadiens have a sustainable model for long term success this year and I will explain why.
Both Pittsburgh and Montreal are receiving very good goaltending so far this year. The Penguins rank 4th overall with a team EVSV% of .940% and Montreal is 8th overall at .931%. These are both really good numbers even if it is early on in the season.
Both Pittsburgh and Montreal also have really good shooting percentages as a team. Pittsburgh is at 9.02% and Montreal is at 9.08%.
When you combine these two metrics it turns into our fancy little luck stat known as PDO. Pittsburgh has a PDO of 1030 which is best in the league while Montreal is fifth overall at 1023. Teams will always regress towards 1000 and this is why I have concerns for Montreal.
While I do believe Pittsburgh will regress along with Montreal, they have something going in their favor that Montreal does not. Puck possession.
Pittsburgh currently ranks second overall at 56.7%, Montreal is 22nd overall at 48.6%, and Tampa Bay is fourth overall at 54.4%
Point being that great possession teams can overcome adversity more so than the teams who do not excel in that area. When Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay (1022), and Montreal see their PDO’s eventually drop Montreal is the team with the most risk. Right now Montreal is riding high with below average possession, but I don’t see that as a sustainable model. They will either need to improve on the possession front or continue to tempt fate with a sky high PDO. I’m not saying it can’t happen, I’m saying it isn’t likely.
Some recent examples of teams with poor possession and high PDO’s include Toronto and Colorado. Fortunately for the Canadiens their possession is not nearly as bad as those two examples but you can see how that model eventually fails a team.
Look for Tampa Bay to eventually pass Montreal in the standings and never look back.
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