Truth be told though, this is arguably the easiest and most favorable matchup of the three matchups they have faced. Hold on Rangers fans, before you get too angry at me for that let's walk through it. Let's also take what I say as an analyst with a grain of salt. I thought the Kings-Ducks series was an incredibly favorable matchup for LA, but the series still ended up being a 7-game affair.
Remember, analyst predictions...well sometimes they are just flat out wrong (Unless you are Craig Custance apparently)
The Rangers got to this point on as equally as difficult a path in perspective to quality teams in the Eastern Conference to the Western Conference. Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Montreal are no walks in the park. Granted, they aren't San Jose, Anaheim, and Chicago, that's still three quality teams and three tough buildings to win in. They've done it in similar fashion to the Kings with two seven-game series and a six-game series in the Conference Finals. Just on the surface though the Kings are a vastly different opponent to what they have faced in the postseason so far.
Let's go down the list and break it down a bit shall we?
Offense
The Kings offense has been a force thus far in the playoffs. The 3.48 goals per game is a country mile away from the 2.70 goals per game that the Rangers have put up through the first three rounds. The Kings' powerplay has also clicked at a staggering 25.4% rate, and as always, they have ruled the possession aspect of the game. Much of these numbers are, in large part, thanks to the contributions of the duo of Marian Gaborik and Anze Kopitar. It's going to make for a lovely little narrative when ex-Ranger Marian Gaborik steps onto the ice in Madison Square Garden in enemy colors, and his goal scoring form is certainly going to add to it. Gaborik has been a force, and currently leads the playoffs with 12 goals in 21 games. Life for Gaborik is easy when he has Dustin Brown, who came to life against Chicago, and Anze Kopitar creating space for him and feeding him the puck. It will be up to Vigneault to find a way to shut down the top pairing of the Kings, and you can bet the first names on the docket for the job are going to be Ryan McDonagh and Dan Girardi. We'll get more into that in the defensive category though.
The problem I see for the New York Rangers doesn't lie in containing Kopitar and Gaborik. Like other teams have found out, the problem lies in shutting down a deep group of forwards which Sutter rolls fairly consistently. Last series it was Carter/Toffoli/Pearson who came through with huge goals. Against San Jose it was Trevor Lewis who scored some timely goals. Justin Williams, Dustin Brown, Mike Richards...
It's a lot to ask of a team to shut down 1-4 center group of Kopitar/Carter/Richards/Stoll. And how does NYR match up against that center group? Stepan/B.Richards/Brassard/Moore. It's not the worst matchup in the world quite frankly, but the Kings own a massive advantage not only in caliber but in the faceoff dot. Neither Richards, Moore, nor Stepan are particularly good on the draw. All 3 of those players are sitting in the mid (and low for Stepan) 40's in faceoff percentage, and the trio take the most draws for the Rangers. That will definitely be a thing to keep an eye on.
#NYRangers top 3 C faceoff numbers: Stepan - 41%, Richards - 46%, Brassard - 46%.
#LAKings: Kopitar - 54%, Stoll - 57%, Richards - 52%
— Jason Lewis (@SirJDL) June 3, 2014On the wing I think the Rangers sport a rather formidable group in their top 9. Hagelin, Zucarrello, Nash, Kreider, Pouliot and St. Louis, can all score and can all bring an element of speed to the game. The Kings defense will be pressed by these players. The question I have for the Rags though is can Hagelin, Zucarrello and Pouliot continue to chip in?
Overall, the forward groups from both teams are formidable. However, with the way the Kings offense is carrying the mail right now I'd say they have a distinct advantage over the Rangers. I know a lot of folks are saying this will be a low scoring series, but I'm seeing a lot of talent and ability to light the lamp on both lineups. The center depth for LA is vastly superior even if they are over matched on the wings, albeit slightly. Toffoli and Pearson are another wild card in the series, and if they show up to play again then it could very well be what pushes LA over the edge.
Edge: Kings
Defense
The Kings have been touch and go defensively to be honest. Outside of the outright fantastic playoffs that both Drew Doughty and Jake Muzzin have had, everyone else has been touch and go at times. While big games have come from Voynov-Mitchell and Martinez-Greene, the back end has sorely missed Robyn Regehr. Still, they have made it work thus far against extremely challenging offensive squads. I mentioned it before, but the Kings faced the No. 1, 2, and 6 overall offenses in the league in the first three rounds. Was it really the bottom pairings struggling? Or was it extremely high quality of the opponents? Probably a little bit of both. Sutter has showed a lot of confidence and poise in finding the favorable ice time for his pairings, and he has also had Muzzin and Doughty munching up a stupid amount of minutes against difficult lines and situations. For a team that is predicated on it's defense, it has been a little bit of an anomalous post-season, with two extremely high scoring series being played against Chicago and San Jose. Still though, they were the best defensive team in the league during the regular season and it's always a factor when it comes to playing the Kings.
The Rangers have stalwarts in the postseason in terms of defense. They have an extremely low 2.25 goals against average for the playoffs, they have kept teams to a rather low 28 shots per game average, and they have the second best penalty kill going right now at 85.9%. Then there are the little things like the shot blocking, the physicality, and oh right...that guy named Henrik Lundqvist.
It's an underrated group on the back end. They lack a big name like a Drew Doughty or Duncan Keith, but they are strong. Girardi and McDonagh have been one of the strongest pairings in the post season, responsible for shutting down the likes of Crosby, Malkin, and Claude Giroux. These guys have seen some skill. More bread and butter guys fill out the bottom pairings, as Stralman, Marc Staal, Kevin Klein, and John Moore all do their jobs quietly and effectively. You won't see a lot of offense out of that D corp like you will the Kings, but they do their jobs when it comes to the D-zone.
This one is an even split to me. While NYR lacks the dynamism and the offense of the King blueliners, they have a painfully efficient group.
Edge: Even
Goaltending
I think this one is simple no matter how you look at it. If the New York Rangers want a chance to win a Stanley Cup it's going to be on the back of King Henrik Lundqvist. He is the major plus in this series for the Rangers. Quick has been average at best. He has had glimpses of great play but it has been few and far between. Granted, you have to take into account the extreme quality he was facing in the first 3 rounds. Nonetheless, the former Conn Smythe winner hasn't been on par with his previous playoff performances. At this point it's hard to say that the Kings have won a game BECAUSE of Jonathan Quick. If 32 can get hot though, this could get difficult for the Rangers. Already lacking a little bit of punch to the offense so far, a hot Jonathan Quick would make matters worse. Let's be frank also, the Rangers haven't faced a decent goaltender so far in these playoffs. No offense to Steve Mason (Who I thought was great), Dustin Tokarski, and Marc-Andre Fleury, but Quick can step up to a level above all three of those goalies. The question remains though, will he? We haven't seen it so far.
Lundqvist has had several performances in this postseason where he stood on his head to get the Rangers a W. He's also been an absolute MONSTER on the road, posting a .933 save percentage in opposing buildings. That includes 40-save effort in Montreal and a 39-save effort in Pittsburgh. Overall he has easily been the Rangers best player in these playoffs and will be the leading candidate for the blue shirts for the Conn Smythe. He also has a fairly strong defensive group in front of him to make life easier for him at times. If you want to find the biggest advantage the Rangers have in this series, it's between the pipes. If you want to find the biggest X factor for the Kings, it's between the pipes.
Edge: Rangers
Special Teams
Here is another fairly even category and one that could be a major tipping point in the series. Simply put the Rangers powerplay has been bad, the Kings powerplay has been fantastic. The Ranger penalty kill has been fantastic, the Kings penalty kill has been bad. As any coach will tell you though, it's not about the numbers it's about the timing. Will the Rangers shut down red hot Kings powerplay? Will the Rangers break out of their powerplay funk against a less than effective Kings penalty kill?
I'm siding with the Kings here. They have dealt with three incredibly powerplay units in the Ducks, Sharks, and Blackhawks....and have lived to tell about it. On the other side of things, the Kings powerplay has looked as about as effective as I've ever seen it.
Edge: Kings
Intangibles
Oh no, the infuriating intangibles section. It's definitely the Kings here, no doubt. The mentality, the work ethic, the adversity, the calm. It's been so impressive throughout these playoffs that it's hard to vote against it. While the Rangers have a lot of feel good stories in their locker room with the personal battles of several players as well as redemptions stories from both players and a coach in Alain Vigneault, the Kings are just plain locked in. I like the way that New York plays for each other, but it feels like they are standing in the way of a runaway train at the moment.
Or maybe...a charging rhino? THANKS ADVIL!
Prediction: Kings in 6
With home ice, a potent offense, a strong defense, and the mentality they currently have, it feels like the Kings are going to be too tough an opponent for the Rangers. The Rangers will fight though, no question.
The biggest X factors for the Rangers have to be Lundqvist and the offense, while the Kings will likewise need Quick to better and for their scoring depth to continue to light it up. It's a fairly even series when you get down into it despite people believing that the Kings will run them through fairly easily.
Here's to a good series. Welcome Rangers fans, come on in and let me hear it.
Be sure to check out my cohort, Jan Levine, who writes on the Rangers. I will be posting his articles as well for a view from the other side.
Good luck, and may the best team win!
Follow me on twitter for news and notes about the Kings and the NHL