Yesterday we took a look at Jeff Petry and why his contract status and negotiations might be in the air and today we will try to take a closer look at Justin Schultz’ situation. Up until this morning there was the exact same silence with Schultz as there was with Petry. That is, we heard absolutely nothing on the topic one way or the other until Oiler Colour man and semi-official town-cryer Bob Stauffer tweeted this:
For those wondering about pending RFA's Justin Schultz and Jeff Petry. My guess is Oilers Management met with Newport last week in T.O. ...
— Bob Stauffer (@Bob_Stauffer) June 5, 2014...while at the combine. Wouldn't be surprised if Schultz ends up with Subban-like bridge deal. Maybe short term on Petry too
— Bob Stauffer (@Bob_Stauffer) June 5, 2014So we know that negotiations have been ongoing and the two sides met face to face roughly a week ago. We also know the Oilers want a Bridge deal for Subban and don’t want to lock themselves in too long with Petry. Now Petry is already 26 so presumably any deal he makes will take him to UFA status. From Petry’s perspective it makes sense to go short term so he can hit the open market sooner, from the Oilers’ perspective the desire to go short term makes less sense unless the money is too much.
If Petry wants 4+ Million a season on anything over 2 years then I would be wary of that too since the offensive upside is questionable, but at the same time (and we went over this) Petry IS the Oilers’ best overall defender and is reaching the prime of his career. I wouldn’t be opposed to keeping him 3 to 4 years, but it seems the Oilers aren’t convinced. It may also be wishful thinking on the Oilers’ part that they would like to upgrade Petry’s exact position with drafted defenders or via Trade within a couple of years.
For the Oilers I am very happy that they are looking for a Subban-like “Bridge Deal… that should hopefully last his transition into being the go-to guy for the Oilers. In some ways you could look back at the Subban deal and say “Well now the Habs are going to pay dearly for Subban… but the reality is they were always going to have to pay through the nose for him eventually. What they did do was secure 2 seasons of Norris caliber play for a Cap hit of 2.85M dollars a season. That’s pretty darned good. The hope with Edmonton is that they can also pay a discounted price for inspired play from Schultz.
I’m going to key in on Subban since it was Stauffer that mentioned him first and he is exactly what the Oilers hope Schultz will turn into (though I have my doubts based on playing style). That Subban deal was 2 years: Year 1 at 2M and Year 2 at 3.75M for a 2.85M Cap Hit. The difference between Subban and Schultz right out of the gate though is that Schultz was making the Rookie Max with bonuses and was capable of collecting more than 3.5M a season on his last deal, so assuming he hit a few bonus triggers the deal might shave some money off of his income.
In terms of on-ice production the last year of Subban’s ELC looks very similar to Schultz’ in some respects.
Subban 81GP, 7-29-39 Schultz 74GP, 11-22-33
One VERY major difference though is in Sh% and overall shots. Subban took almost 2x as many shots in that season but was completely stymied and Schultz actually increased his Sh% from his first season but was painfully low in total shots.
Subban 81GP, 205 shots, 3.4% Schultz 74GP, 109 shots, 10.1%
The difference in shot totals is absolutely something we should be worried about in the future, or rather something Dallas Eakins should be worried about in the future. As a Rookie Schultz was taking shots at a rate of 145 per 82 games and under Eakins that dropped dramatically. If he cant find ways to be more involved offensively then the career path the Oilers envision for him might just be fantasy. Somehow the coach is going to have to find a way to get Justin better looks.
The problem with that though is Dallas Eakins already gave Schultz a pretty soft landing spot. He kept him away from the most painful matchups and zone starts, opting to hand those out to Petry and Marincin. Schultz also played 3:30+ minutes a night on the Power Play, which puts him 15th in the NHL for PP time per game and ahead of names like Duncan Keith and Shea Weber.
When we talk about possession and Justin Schultz, this season was a train-wreck. He finished with a 42.7% Corsi rating which was 2nd last, only in front of Larsen. This despite the fact that his most common linemates were Nugent-Hopkins, Hall, and Ference. The Oilers were a bad team so they were naturally going to have poor ratings, but being the 2nd worst on the Defense is not where the Oilers needed Schultz to be. Yesterday we mentioned Petry was tops in CorsiRel at +3.7%, well Schultz had a -2.6%. It isn’t good.
Since Subban is apparently the comparable here (their words, not mine), he had the best Corsi% among regular Habs Defensemen in 2011-2012 (the final year of his ELC). He also had the 2nd fewest Offensive Zone Starts and 2 of his most common opponents were Spezza and Kessel (4th and 6th in NHL scoring respectively). Subban was truly taking on lots of responsibility and holding his own already at that stage of his career.
I cant help but come to the conclusion that it’s smart of the Oilers to look for a “Bridge Deal… for Justin Schultz a la PK Subban, but if the Habs defender is what management thinks Schultz can become then they could be in for disappointment. Schultz was not driving possession the right direction, he was only producing a similar level of offense based on shooting percentage, and he isn’t taking on the same caliber of opponents.
Do the Oilers have much of a choice in giving Schultz a deal similar to Subban’s numbers? Schultz probably “deserves… less in a perfect world but between the natural inflation that comes with a rising Cap and the Oilers’ dogged belief that Schultz will be a premiere offensive defender I don’t think it’s likely that his contract WILL be less. If the “Bridge Deal… is in store for Schultz then that 2 year 2.85M deal is pretty likely.
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