For those who have not checked in since last night’s Canes win, you can find my post-game comments HERE.
Now 15 games into the season, we have had a decent look at what the Canes current personnel can do and in some cases not do. The volume of injuries and the need to play the last 6 games with the franchise’s #3 goalie in net muddy up evaluations a bit, but I still think it is a decent check point to evaluate the lineup.
First, to be clear, in no way am I suggesting blowing the thing up based on the recent struggles. Losing 5 of 6 is rough and on the heels of last season’s death spiral is cannot help but raise blood pressure amongst Canes fans. But this team was 2 games above .500 against a difficult schedule at the point where Cam Ward was lost to injury pushing the #3 goalie into net. Jeff Skinner’s injury was also a huge hit, as he was the team’s best forward at the time he was lost. And the team’s top forwards are struggling out of the gate. I would like to see Skinner in the lineup, at least 1 of the 2 regular goalies back and Eric Staal playing even at 75-80% of what can be reasonably expected of him before making a rash decision to throw the whole thing away, make radical changes and start over.
This said, I think a few places for potential improvement are apparent and with November the official start of the early trade season for teams that are not happy with how they started, Canes GM Jim Rutherford might as well see what is available and answer his phone.
Here is my assessment of all 3 parts of the Canes lineup with regard to possible personnel upgrades:
--Goalie. With Khudobin playing real well, the Canes were as good 2 deep in net as has been the case at least since Ward was trying to steal the job from Gerber. In an ideal world, the #1 in the AHL would either be ready or ride a short burst of adrenaline to a solid 3-week stint, but that is more some combination of random luck than NHL roster building. You just cannot buy real good NHL ready 2-way depth on a 2-way contract, so while the current situation is challenging, I do not think it is something you fix via trade unless Ward or Khudobin were lost long-term.
--Defense. Sekera/Faulk started incredibly well. They have not been horrible of late, but their play has come back to Earth a little bit. But they are still a going concern as the 1st pairing. Murphy’s rapid emergence, unique skill set and chemistry with Jay Harrison have made for a very good 3rd pairing with appropriate salaries for this role. I think Ron Hainsey is penned into a 2nd pairing spot. That leaves Brett Bellemore, Mike Komisarek and Tim Gleason as options for the last roster spot in the #4 slot next to Hainsey. Bellemore rightfully won this spot in training camp. Minus a couple rough games, he has been serviceable but not outstanding in this role. Mike Komisarek has seen less action but has also looked adequate in this role. Finally, after an injury to start the season, Tim Gleason quietly came in and played decent hockey in this role before incurring another injury. So I think the spot in flux is the #4 spot and the players in the mix are Gleason, Komisarek and Bellemore with the other 2 being healthy scratches/injury fill ins. And with the defense being much better this year, I do not think there is a “must fix quickly… problem on the blue line right now. But I think there could be room for improvement and also some roster maneuvering in this situation when you consider:
1) The Canes are real light on generating any easy offense especially off the rush. When Gerbe fed JStaal with a beautiful saucer pass for a high-quality odd-numbered scoring chance off the rush, it made me think of how many of those the team is getting. The answer is very few. While the elimination of Corvo, McBain, Sanguinetti and maybe to a minor degree Pitkanen may have made the defense more sound, I think people (myself included) may have underestimated the impact to the offense in terms of transition game and ability to generate offense off the rush. I think in an ideal world Ron Hainsey’s partner would be a decent 2-way, skating defenseman who can move the puck and help create some offense both on the power play and at even strength especially off the rush. None of Komisarek, Gleason or Bellemore bring this skill set and while Hainsey is a decent skater and 2-way defenseman, generating offense is not his strongest suit.
2) The Canes currently have 3 players who are very similar in terms of skill set battling for a lone roster opening. With minimal NHL experience in the AHL, it is a must to have 7 NHL defensemen, but the team could theoretically improve by moving 1 of the 8 defensemen (2 of whom are press box bound anyway) to add a player who is in the lineup. it is also important to note that Bellmore at $600k and Komisarek at $800k are appropriately priced for a #7 or #8 slot while Gleason's $4M salary just does not fit this far down the depth chart.
So getting to the point, I think there are 2 possibilities with regard to the current defense personnel to possibly improve the roster:
--Add a decent 2-way #4 defenseman (someone would obviously have to go in that trade because the objective is not to get to 9 defensemen) that might help offensively both at even strength and the power play.
--Trading 1 of the 8 to get a forward capable of improving that side of the ledger.
The player clearly in the spot light is Tim Gleason. Again, I think he has played pretty sound hockey since his return (before being injured again) which raises hope that he can regain his top 4 form from year’s past after a rough shortened 2012-13 campaign. But at $4M and arguably only a modest, if any, upgrade over not 1 but 2 similar options in Bellemore and Komisarek, would the team be better served spending this $4M on something else? I think it is at least possible. The tricky part is that Gleason has a no-trade clause for 2013-14, so even if the team wanted to, it could be real difficult finding a deal that meets Gleason’s approval (if he is willing at all) and yields a fair return in trade assets.
--Forward. Eric Staal, Jordan Staal, Alexander Semin, Jiri Tlusty and Jeff Skinner all must be top 6 forwards (or top 9 if the team wants to balance offense/lines which was working okay at least at the bottom part of it when Skinner was healthy).
So there are 5 forwards clearly top 9 capable.
Then at the bottom end, I think you have too many good 4th-line forwards who just really are just not pure top 9 forwards because their scoring ceiling is not high enough. I think that includes Dwyer, Bowman, Dvorak, Nash and Malhotra. You can get away with slotting 1 maybe 2 of these players in the top 9 (teams that are light on young, ready talent have to), but right now the Canes are slotting 2-3 in the top 9 and doing it at a time when the team is starved for offensive output and has 2 other theoretical top 9s who are just not playing at that level (see below) at this time.
This group offers the components for a very good 4th line that can score a little and the chance to bump a player up to fill a spot or 2 especially in the event of injuries. But if you start your slotting with this collection of players on the 4th line, the math says that even with Skinner (and the other top players) healthy, the team is short up 4 top 9 forwards.
In limbo are Ruutu, Lindholm and maybe to a lesser degree Gerbe.
Tuomo Ruutu has historically been a solid top 9 forward with a physical edge and should be again this year. But be it because of 2 hip surgeries and a 3rd lower body injury in training camp, be it because he is still rounding into form or whatever else, he just is not playing at the level needed to be a contributing top 9 forward right now. And also slowed by injuries is Elias Lindholm. He has not been horrible. He has had his share of plays where you could see the potential. But like Ruutu, he just has not been a difference-maker often enough this season relative to where he slots on the Canes. Nathan Gerbe has been a pleasant surprise and a drop in top 9 somehow acquired on a 2-way contract against seemingly no other bidders. In trying to build a Canes team capable of making and winning in the playoffs, I think it is interesting to think about where Canes players might slot on a team like the Blackhawks or Bruins. Gerbe very much looks like Michael Frolik on the Hawks last season. Frolik was slotted on the 4th line. He brought a ton of energy, played penalty kill minutes, offered surprise scoring bursts from the 4th line and was able to step into scoring line roles for short stretches when injuries or slumps dictated. But the Canes just are not that deep, so Gerbe stays in the top 9 slot that he has earned rather than waiting for turns like he might on a deeper team.
When you net it out, the Canes top players need to play like top 6 players. For the most part this group consists of proven veterans. Whether they are going to score 90-100 points or 60-70 is debatable, but it is reasonable to think these players will eventually find their game. As noted above, there is plenty of 4th line type of depth with the ability to slot a player or 2 higher. But my math says that even if/when things start working better, the team could be short anywhere from 1 to 2 top 9 forwards and that is with everyone healthy. The other side note to be considered when evaluating the Canes forwards is the continued struggles on the power play.
So again, I do not think there is reason to panic and act out of desperation at forward in terms of a trade. The team has significant room for improvement just from getting more out of the current players who are underperforming. But I do think that another true top 9 forward with offensive skill has the potential to improve the roster by improving offensive balance.
In terms of who could be traded, I am not sure that the Canes have much in the way of tradable assets that they want to part with. Tuomo Ruutu is arguably the Canes forward right now who offers the best mix of potential value to other teams and an unclear role in the Canes lineup. On the negative side, he has not found his stride yet this season and is on the books for $5M/year for 2 more years after this one. But I am inclined to be patient with him. He is just now reaching the volume of practice/game ice time to replace the training camp that he missed, so there is reason to hope that he is just rounding into form and getting ready to find the next gear. The other negative is that his contract could be scary to other teams too who might pay $5M for the 2010-11 Tuomo Ruutu but are not willing to take the risk that he regains that form which is now 3 years ago. In terms of tradability, there is almost always a premium being paid for bigger, physical forwards who have enough skill and skating to play on scoring lines.
So what would I do?
First, I would not go into desperation mode and start tinkering at random nor would I aggressively try to dump contracts and completely reconstruct the team at this time. Though we are now about a month into the season, there have been so many moving parts with injuries that it is hard to make a concrete assessment of the current team.
Second, if there is interest in Tim Gleason, a chance to get fair value in return and a way around the NTC issues, I would consider it. I like Tim Gleason. I have huge respect for the way that Tim Gleason plays the game. But I just do not think that at this stage of his career he is enough better than Bellemore to justify $4M versus $600k in salary.
So what do you trade him for?
--The supposed availability (yet again) of Ales Hemsky thing is interesting. He is overpaid at $5M for this season, but then in his current role you could make the case that Tim Gleason is overpaid at $4M for this season plus 2 more. Edmonton is looking for help on defense , is overstocked with the puck-moving offensive variety and needs to add more stay-home defense. And though they have decent young leadership, another grizzled veteran leader would not hurt their room either. In return, the Canes would get Alexander Semin-lite. Hemsky is a skilled offensive forward with both scoring and playmaking abilities. And he plays right wing where the Canes have Semin + 2 guys probably overslotted in Dwyer and Dvorak + 2 guys not quite there yet in Ruutu and Lindholm. (Plus if the Canes added a scoring RW, it might be the move necessary to finally get Lindholm into the C3 slot that he was originally slotted for before injuries, training camp, etc.
When you net it out, you basically traded a defenseman who was possibly in press box anyway for a player who, yes is less than perfect, but drops right into your top 6 and power play.
Going forward, you can make a case that this trade helps too. Again, I like Tim Gleason, but based on today if you asked me would like him at 2 more years for $4M/year or would you rather just have the money to buy someone else, I would take the cash. Hemsky is a free agent this summer and likely to have to take a pay cut. The Canes would get 1st dibs on him going forward if they wanted him or again they could take the money and shop elsewhere.
I have no idea who needs to add what to this deal to sweeten it. Every time you write a specific trade recommendation on HockeyBuzz, I usually get people on both sides telling me I am an idiot. The way I know I was not that far off was when those numbers roughly equal out (because hardly anyone ever says it is a good, fair idea).
The other option would be to try to put together a little bit bigger package for more of a puck-moving 2-way top 4 defenseman to slot next to Hainsey and maybe increase the offense off the rush, but top decent top 4 defensemen with some offensive abilities are rare and hard to pry loose via trade.
What say you Canes fans?
Despite its imperfections and maybe lighter offensive ability, should we just be happy to have a defense that is much better than 2012-13?
Am I right that the Canes are light 1 if not 2 scoring-capable forwards to round out the top 9?
Does it make sense to wait to try to get 2-3 weeks of evaluation time with Khudobin or Ward plus a healthy lineup before even considering anything trade-wise?
Who knows of a top 4 capable (ideally right shot) defenseman who is slightly more the puck-moving/skating variety but is good enough defensively who might be available via trade for less than a king's ransom?
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