San Jose continues their road trip in Tampa tonight to face the NHL-leading Lightning. The Sharks are fresh off an embarrassing loss to the Florida Panthers and the Lightning are coming off a shootout defeat to the Chicago Blackhawks.
Tampa isn't as accustomed to losing as San Jose this year so they should be extremely hungry to come out and get back in the W column. The Sharks need to find a way to slow down the Tampa offense and, with a leaky group of defenders, that’s going to be easier said than done.
Here’s how they can beat the Lightning:
Control Possession
The Tampa Bay Lightning are leading the NHL for a reason. They keep the puck.
The Sharks need to be better with the little black circle than Tampa, it’s that simple. Tampa is 6th in the NHL in 5v5 Corsi% (53.09%) while the Sharks are 18th with 50.28%.
The Sharks are a better possession team than they have shown. Todd McLellan, in all his mystical wisdom, has destroyed the Sharks possession numbers this year with his mad scientist line combinations. They have the personnel to be a dominant possession team, they've shown that at the start of the year. When the lines are set like games one-to-three good things happen.
The Lightning are a very stable possession team game by game in comparison to San Jose so there won’t be much variance tonight from what you've seen all year from the Lightning. The Sharks are going to have to go in and take some of it away.
The Sharks extreme up and down performances can be attributed to a change in lines every single game. Some lines work better than others, so there’s your variance. McLellan also likes to protect leads, which results in the Sharks being dominated in possession statistics as they try to weather a storm their not capable of stopping.
While the Lightning are a top team they can still be had by a talented team like San Jose. The Sharks have the players to take away possession from the Tampa, and it starts with:
Joe Thornton/Joe Pavelski
Only Ondrej Palat (60.00) and Nikita Kucherov (60.86) have better 5v5 Corsi numbers than Thornton and Pavelski out of the players who have played 160 minutes this year between the two teams.
19 and 8 should be worked to the bone tonight and play 20+ minutes. The Sharks simply need them on the ice as much as possible to control the puck.
Great things happen while they’re on the ice and opposing teams have a hard time limiting the offensive chances that both players can produce for the Sharks. They’re both strong on the puck and lead to extended time in the offensive zone, particularly important when the Sharks defense has been drastically disappointing.
Having the fourth line play nine minutes a game is a waste of time and takes away ice time from positive possession players like Thornton and Pavelski.
Don’t Dump The Puck In
The Lightning have one of the best, and most underrated, defensive groups in the entire NHL. Do you really want to hand them the puck on a silver platter?
No, you don’t.
Dump and chase only works against teams that have terrible zone exits and weak defenders, and even then the effectiveness of it is up for debate.
Getting pucks in deep should be a play that gets left in the dressing room for most of the game. The Sharks need to carry the puck into the zone and maintain possession.
Anton Stralman leads a group of blue-liners that are very comfortable with the puck in their own zone. The Sharks need to make things a little less comfortable for the defenders and not give them possession to start the offensive zone attack.
The only time the puck should be dumped in is if the forwards are going to change.
Force Stamkos To His Natural Wing
Steven Stamkos is the best goal scorer in the NHL, plain and simple. He’s a major threat as soon as he steps over the opposition’s blue-line.
That’s even more true when he steps over on his off-wing. Here’s a chart of Stamkos’ goals so far this season:
What do you notice?
Nothing from the right side. That doesn't mean he won’t score from the right side, it just means that it reduces the likelihood that he gets a goal. When you are playing a player as gifted and dominant as Stamkos that’s all you can try to do.
He’s going to get his chances, he’s going to break free for breakaway’s, but when you get the chance to push him to the right side of the ice you have to take it. It’s going to minimize the damage that he can cause.
If the Sharks show up tonight it could be a very entertaining hockey game. If they don't then it will be a very, very long night against the NHL's best team.
Thanks for reading.