Follow JJ on Twitter @jaeckel
In a nutshell, this series boils down to an overall difference in talent, experience and confidence.
This is not the same Wild team the Blackhawks beat in five games in last year's opening round. It's a better team, a bit faster, more experienced and more confident.
However, while the Hawks might not be quite as deep as they were last year, they haven't come far enough back to the pack to say that the Wild can win this series.
Well, the Wild can win it. Absolutely.
Will they? Probably not.
Because up and down the lineups, the Hawks have more talent, much more experience and the psychological advantage of winning two of the last four Stanley Cups—and just beating a lot of people's pick to win this year's Cup, the St. Louis Blues, in six games.
I suggest all of you check out my colleague Tony Dean's breakdown on the series here:
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Tony-Dean/WildHBcommunity-MNWild-Return-to-Chicago-Revenge-on-Their-Minds-Game-1/189/59823
It contains a lot of valuable information that it would be superfluous to reprint here.
Where I will disagree with Tony is in some mismatches he feels favor the Wild. Yes, the Wild were 3-1-1 versus the Hawks this year in the regular season. Well, the Blues had a winning record versus the Hawks too. And look where that got them.
What favors the Hawks in this series, as in all their playoff series the last two seasons, are superior overall depth at forward and defense, and superior overall team speed.
The Wild's top pair of Ryan Suter and Jnas Brodin was as good as any the Hawks saw in last year's playoffs. The problem was, they could only be that good for roughly half the game. Then the drop off was fairly severe. The Hawks don't have that problem. "#3" defenseman Niklas Hjalmarsson is a top pairing guy on most teams, giving Coach Joel Quenneville the luxury of throwing Hjalmarsson and his partner Johnny Oduya out against opponents' top lines, and thereby taking immense pressure off Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith. To wit, the Hawks essentially turned the tide of the St. Louis series without Seabrook on the ice.
Or look at Game 5 of last year's Western Conference Finals, when Hjamarsson was absolutely stellar in the absence of a suspended Keith.
It's a similar situation at forward, where the "4th" line of Marcus Kruger, Brandon Bollig and often Ben Smith can be Quenneville's "shutdown" line, affording him the luxury of having three scoring lines.
And over the course of a seven game series depth (or lack thereof) becomes critical. Weaknesses will be revealed and exploited, especially by the team that has depth.
As good as the Wild must feel beating the favored Avalanche in round 1, the Hawks proved all the doubters wrong by beating a much healthier St. Louis club than originally advertised.
The Wild have improved. This should be a competitive series. But I see the Hawks taking it before Game 7.
Your thoughts?