The Rangers head into Tuesday's game up three games to one with a shot at clinching a berth in the final two (sorry, refuse to say the name until it happens), As we have seen so far in the playoffs, a 3-1 series lead is much less secure than first thought. Plus, as Kevin Allen wrote today, the four teams remaining are 12-0 in elimination games, meaning they are a combination of Jason Voorhess, Freddy Krueger and Chucky when fighting for their playoff lives.
New York rallied in the previous round against Pittsburgh. In addition, Los Angeles came back from 3-0 down to San Jose in the first round. While history is on their side, as of the 64 teams have taken a 3-1 lead in the conference finals or Cup Final; 63 have won. Only the Devils, in 2000 over Philadelphia, have rallied. But as we saw last round with New York, history is made to be broken. Therefore, it is in New York's best interest to end it in five.
Winning Tuesday is key obviously because it gives New York four victories and the series, but it means so much more. It shows that the team has learned from prior mistakes and has a killer instinct to win a series in less than seven games. Possibly, just as important, it enables the squad as a whole to get a few additional days of rest. Plus, players like Derek Stepan, who is questionable with his broken jaw, and JT Miller, dealing with what looks to be an right arm injury after getting checked by Andrei Markov into the goal post, have a much better chance of getting close to normal playing status with that potential time off.
The Rangers will need to be a lot better than they were in Games 2-4. In Game 2, Henrik Lundqvist was brilliant and the main reason why New York headed home up 2-0. In Games 3 and 4, Montreal did a much better job of controlling play, especially through the neutral zone, limiting New York's chances. After losing Game 1, Montreal upped their effort and compete level. For NY to win, they need to play like they did in Game 1 rather than how they performed the past three games.
The good news is that Stepan traveled to Montreal. The bad news is that Miller did not. Even though Stepan is with the team, the expectation right now is that he won't play. We will get a better sense as to his possible availability early Tuesday AM. If he participates in the morning skate, that will tip the odds a bit closer to him suiting out. If he doesn't, you can just about rule him out.
If Stepan does not play, the Rangers are also short of another fill in as Miller is sidelined due to his injury. In addition, with Dan Carcillo seemingly waiting for Godot for his appeal of his 10-game suspension to be heard - because we know that doing it on the off-days between Games 3 and 4 or Monday was impossible - the Rangers are running out of options. I know the playoffs are a battle of attrition, but this is a bit crazy. So, who do they turn to? The two possibilities appear to be Jesper Fast, who saw time in the Philly series, and Oscar Lindberg, who had 18 goals and 28 assists in 75 games for Hartford. This is a rough spot to put Lindberg in, but win NY up 3-1, the pressure is blunted a bit, plus he is known as being solid in all three zones, so it's feasible he gets a shot over Fast.
A few keys for me tonight:
Jump out to a lead. Montreal has been behind most of the series, leading just 17 seconds in Game 2 and 2:33 in Game 3. Getting the lead enables New York to take the pumped Montreal crowd out of it slightly and forces the Canadiens into comeback mode. Plus, psychologically, it adds another layer of doubt in their own minds.
Stay out of the box. The penalty kill has been phenomenal. But you don't want to keep relying on that, especially knowing how good the Montreal power play is. In addition, beyond just staying out of the box, be smarter in the offensive zone, where most of the infractions occurred Sunday.
Get to the front of the net/Patience. Dustin Tokarski has play well since stepping in for the injured Carey Price but two things have stood out watching him. First, he leaves a lot of rebounds in front of the net. To take advantage of this, the Rangers need to be a lot better getting to and finding space in front of the net. Montreal has prevented the Blueshirts from doing so, but getting to even one or two of these rebounds could prove the difference between winning and losing. Second, he comes way out of his net to challenge shooters. Carl Hagelin and Martin St. Louis each showed how to beat it. Hagelin used that aggressiveness against Tokarksi, deking and going five-hole for the first goal Sunday. St. Louis hesitated a split-second on his game-winner, forcing Tokaski's shoulder and glove down a bit, opening up the top-shelf just enough for St. Louis to score.
Line Combinations (to be adjusted as we get closer to game time):
Rangers:
Forwards: 20 Chris Kreider - 28 Dominic Moore - 61 Rick Nash 67 Benoit Pouliot - 16 Derick Brassard - 36 Mats Zuccarello 62 Carl Hagelin - 19 Brad Richards - 26 Martin St. Louis Oscar Lindberg - 22 Brian Boyle - 15 Derek Dorsett
Extras: Derek Stepan (broken jaw, questionable to return this series), Daniel Carcillo (suspended 10 games under Rule 40.3, appealing, no guarantee it's reduced and if so, played by AV. Played Game 2-3 in place of Brassard, who was out with the upper-body injury he suffered in Game 1), JT Miller (played Game 4, out with right arm injury suffered in game) and Jesper Fast (played first two games against Philly and has been on pine since then, though could replace Miller).
Defense 27 Ryan McDonagh - 5 Dan Girardi 18 Marc Staal - 6 Anton Stralman 17 John Moore - 8 Kevin Klein
Extras: Raphael Diaz (a heck of a lot better than having to dress Roman Hamrlik) and Justin Falk.
Goaltending 30 Henrik Lundqvist 33 Cam Talbot
Canadiens
Forwards Max Pacioretty-David Desharnais-Brendan Gallagher Alex Galchenyuk-Tomas Plekanec- Brian Gionta Rene Bourque-Lars Eller- Dale Weise Michael Bournival-Daniel Briere- Thomas Vanek
Scratches - Brandon Prust (suspended two games for hit on Stepan) Travis Moen and Ryan White (could get in instead of Bournival for Prust)
Defense Josh Gorges-PK Subban Andrei Markov-Alexei Emelin Francis Bouillon-Mike Weaver
Scratches - Nathan Beaulieu (played Games 1-3, sat for Bouillon, who scored in Game 4) and Douglas Murray (healthy)
Goaltenders Duston Tokarski Peter Budaj
Scratches - Carey Price (right knee, out for remainder of the series)
Rangers (Metro Division) vs. Canadiens (Atlantic Division) - Eastern Conference Finals Game 1: Rangers 7 Canadiens 2, Sat., May 17 Game 2: Rangers 3 Canadiens 1, Mon., May 19 Game 3: Canadiens 3 Rangers 2, OT, Thu. May 22 Game 4: Rangers 3 Canadiens 2, OT, Sun., May 25 Game 5*: Rangers at Canadiens, Tue., May 27 at 8PM (NBC, CBC) Game 6*: Canadiens at Rangers, Thu., May 29 at 8PM (NBC, CBC)* Game 7*: Rangers at Canadiens, Sat., May 31 at 8PM (NBC, CBC)*
The Rangers have a chance to do something they haven't done since 1994. Montreal is looking to send the series back to New York for Game 6 Thursday. Of course, I prefer the former rather than latter option. So New York will hopefully learn from past mistakes and find a way to get it done and make the 20th anniversary of Matteau, Matteau, Matteau a good one, As Carp suggested and I was thinking about this Sunday, if the result goes as we hope, maybe we can get Howie Rose to record a new one more mountain to climb and it's either Mount Los Angeles or Chicago.
Let’s Go Rangers!!! The Drive to the Stanley Cup continues tonight in Montreal.
(More important, happy ninth birthday to my youngest daughter Kyra, we love you every much)