After the Columbus loss, I tweeted:
1/2 Magnitude of this loss gets determined by if #Canes rebound Monday at home against a beatable team.
— Matt Karash (@CarolinaMatt63) January 11, 2014Then after Monday's loss to Calgary, I followed up with:
1/2 It is not possible to blow an entire NHL season in 1 game in January. #Canes
— Matt Karash (@CarolinaMatt63) January 14, 20142/2 But the #Canes collected every straw they could possibly find Monday night and loaded it on the camel's back.
— Matt Karash (@CarolinaMatt63) January 14, 2014I think that sums it up fairly well. Monday's loss is not the end of the season, but it is also a much bigger hit than a run of the mill "you are going to lose some here and there" variety for a couple reasons:
--If you could pick a situation for a quick rebound from a loss to get going in the right direction this was it. Calgary came in having lost 7 of 8, having scored 6 goals in those games and being shut out 5 times.
--With other teams in the Metro suddenly winning hockey games, the Canes need every point they can get. A game against a struggling bottom dweller MUST mean 2 points.
--It seems to suggest that the Canes just might not be capable of the sustained run it will take to make the playoffs. Of the 8-9 teams fighting for the last 2 Metro Division playoff spots and the 2 Eastern Conference wild cards, a couple teams will finally prove capable of playing a month or so of sustained quality hockey. January is the Canes best chance. Should win losses like this push the Canes back into the group of teams that are destined to tread water and/or oscillate between up and down.
As for the game itself:
--Inability to grind and fight. Putting this game immediately behind the Blue Jackets loss shined a glaring spotlight on the Canes struggles winning games that turn into hand to hand combat. Amidst all of the bad things I witnessed at PNC Arena Monday night, Calgary's ability to cycle the puck on a single side with only 2 forwards (and defense at point for outlet/support) while parking the 3rd forward in the crease is the thing that will haunt my dreams tonight. Also, once Shane O'Brien and a couple other Calgary defensemen dialed up a bit of nasty early, there was not a Cane to be found (except Gerbe) who wanted anything to do with going inside the wall of the Calgary defense. And when Calgary sat back in the 2nd half of the neutral zone and bunched up at the blue line forcing the Canes to dump the puck, Canes forwards mostly went after it with the "I'll let him get there 1st, then I will try to be crafty and swipe at it with my stick" approach. It is not about fighting other players. It is about fighting for stuff - the puck, ice space in front of the net, to get inside of the perimeter of a physical defense, etc.
--Timing is right. Usually when a team loses a disappointing game like this, conventional wisdom says that the team is better off playing again soon to move forward. I actually think the Canes 4 off days could not be more perfectly timed. I think it gives Kirk Muller the time he needs to challenge the group as a whole and see if he can get them to buy into a higher level of commitment. In the miraculous Montreal comeback on New Year's Eve, he seemed to get them to dial up the effort when the team was down. But the need was a little up the Canes ally. The Canes needed to skate and generate offense. The team is build for that, so when it is playing well that target is within reach. But the next level that this team has yet to reach is the 1 where the team is willing to do whatever it takes each and every game, not just try harder and harder when it is not working to do what comes easy sometimes. I enjoy watching practices with scrimmages and system work in training camp. I occasionally attend practices during the season, but the vast majority of them are not that interesting - a little bit of work on this, a little bit of work on that, a few 1-on-1 conversations, etc. In a normal season, there are some number of 5-10 times at most where I want to attend practice because I think there is something to be gleaned from it. Tomorrow and possibly Wednesday fit the bill. Most of the real interesting stuff will happen behind closed doors. My best guess is that Muller will lay down some individual challenges that could be the heaviest since his arrival in North Carolina, and that this will be followed up with an equally big challenge to the leadership and the group.
Even with this loss, the Canes are very much in the playoff chase right now, but the Canes ability to make the playoffs will not be decided by how many games it wins it wins when things go their way. It will be decided by how many games they can win when things don't. I think Muller gets that. The question is whether he can get the team in total to take the next step and be willing to do what it takes to win the games that do not come easy.
I am completely skipping my player notes. None of the Canes were great obviously. As strange as it sounds to say this, it is not that so many of the individuals were horrible, it is just that virtually none were really good on a night when the team needed it and the opponent made it seemingly possible.
Next up could be a very interesting 4 days considering the team does not actually play in that span. It will be interesting to see if it is possible to get a read on Kirk Muller's tact from practice. The 4-day layoff following 2 pretty rough losses also creates a possible opening for Canes GM Jim Rutherford. I think he continues to be hamstrung a bit by the combination of egregious use of no-trade clauses and the occasional burst of winning that tends to decrease the urgency, but is working on anything to improve the team and possibly shake things up a little bit, this week would make sense.
Prior to the Columbus loss, I actually drafted a trade possibility-focused collection of blog material that addresses the goalie situation, areas for potential improvement, how the various no-trade clauses could impact things and even a couple specific trade possibilities. I wrote it from the mindset of "Rutherford needs to keep working to improve the team to try to climb off the bubble." The 2 recent losses could prove to be an accelerator.
Next up game-wise is another set of back-to-backs that sees the Canes host Florida and then Tampa on Saturday and Sunday.
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