The Oilers are on the verge of doing something really dumb. The pressure to win is reaching critical levels and the team has to find ways to remain calm during this horrible start. The facts are plain. This is the worst start in Franchise history. Worse than the years the team finished 30th or 29th. Worse than last year, whose October sank the careers of two otherwise capable NHL goaltenders. The team has managed to keep the Win column in as pristine condition as the day the season started. Not a single victory yet. No doubt they should and could have won games, but it hasn’t happened.
As James Mirtle of TSN and The Globe and Mail points out in this article, it isn’t all bad in Edmonton. The underlying numbers suggest the skaters have improved in terms of possession. This has proven to be a better indicator of future success than the posted Win/Loss record and we should expect a turn around in luck. As Mirtle’s piece accurately notes, the Oilers are a team with unsustainably bad luck. The shooters cant score and the goalies are fighting the puck at rates nobody can win with.
The last game, despite the Loss, was a statement from Ben Scrivens that he hasn’t forgotten how to play in net. He had a strong game (still with some puck handling issues) and gave the team every opportunity to win. It simply didn’t happen. Here’s the problem. There’s no prize for trying hard in the NHL. All the predictive and underlying stats in the world don’t mean a thing to team that hasn’t made the playoffs in 8 years unless the team starts coming away with Wins. I hope that the Oilers don’t do something rash yet because they aren’t this bad, but it’s only a matter of time if the trend continues.
DRAISAITL
The Oilers’ record may force a decision on Leon Draisaitl that the club was not expecting to make. Jason Gregor argues that the rookie Center should be returned to junior. This wouldn’t be happening if the Oilers were 2-3 or even a lucky 3-2, but with the season already teetering on the edge it’s exactly the kind of talk that will be reaching a fever pitch in the coming days.
Leon Draisaitl has not excelled yet at the NHL level. He has fared OK for a rookie in the Faceoff dot at 46.3% but he hasn’t been particularly forceful on the attack. He still shows flashes of that creativity but they are few and far between to this point in his burgeoning NHL career. His line has had the most limited minutes but it has also had the worst effectiveness from a Corsi perspective. Both he and Yakupov are dead last for Oiler forwards by that measurement. It hasn’t been a great start. However, he is just 18 and in his first month of professional action. We should expect the game to slow down for him after a while if he plays. The problem is Gregor’s argument isn’t without merit. If the Oilers finish game 9 with a record of 2-7 then it might be time to shut him down and try again next year. The conversation is different at 4-5 with increased production from his line. His future is in his hands (and Ben Scrivens’ it seems).
YAKUPOV
Nail Yakupov is the focal point of pundit loud-mouthery. Every expert west of Manitoba has the finger pointed at Yak like the grim signal from Death himself. Dave Hodge compared him to Patrik Stefan, which would be an apt comparison if you were blind and had never watched the two of them play Hockey or perhaps were also deaf and could neither listen to the radio as well. I could not think of a player less like Yakupov than Patrik Stefan, not in style, talent, nor circumstance of their draft. He was ranked #1 his entire Draft year and there was no doubt to his scoring ability.
Despite the fact that the talking heads are completely insane when it comes to their perception of the kid, he may very well end up shipped out of town for immediate help. If that is the case I hope it isn’t for a Center that the current Oilers likely need the most, but for a potential stud blueliner that the future Oilers certainly need. I temper that statement, however, by stating that I hope he isn’t moved at all. He has been (despite results) one of the Oilers’ better players in the early goings on of the season and I hope that trend continues and his line starts producing. If it cant then he may very well be gone before Christmas.
LINEUP
The big line has been reunited and Perron moved back to the Left side. Purcell played terribly as a LW in the last game and he is on his more natural right side. Arcobello and Pouliot are with Yak, which gives that line enough skill and willingness to play physical and be a threat to score. The 4th line was fantastic last game and that has a lot to do with Jesse Joensuu playing like a man possessed. Marincin is playing with Fayne which should give him a chance to play more minutes, but only if the coach wants to win.
Hall RNH Eberle Perron Draisaitl Purcell Pouliot Arcobello Yakupov Hendricks Gordon Joensuu
Marincin Fayne Nikitin Schultz Ference Petry
Scrivens
OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME
1) Better Ice Time Distribution. The distribution of playing time is broken for this club. Justin Schultz, Brad Hunt, and Andrew Ference are all in the top 4 for icetime per game by a Defenseman. Schultz is playing 24 minutes a night. Andrew Ference is playing almost 19 minutes a night. These are the pairing that should likely be playing the least minutes for the team. Fayne, Petry, and (its early) Marincin need to be playing a lot more.
2) Keep It Up Scrivy! Ben Scrivens gave Edmonton every opportunity to win but they couldn’t score on Miller. That’s not on the goaltender. It was the 1st game where the loss REALLY had nothing to do with the guy in between the pipes. We cant expect him to limit the goals to 1 against but strong performances will eventually result in wins. The difference between backups and starters is consistency. Scrivens needs to show consistency.
3) Seen Stamkos? The guy is a generational goal-scorer. His shot is unreal, his quickness is still surprising to opponents, and his ability to find open ice is shocking. I don’t know how they do it but I know it doesn’t involve Justin Schultz, the Oilers have to find a way to stop Steven Stamkos. I don’t care if they just get lucky and he hits the post all night. He has 5 goals in 5 games and the Oilers could boost his totals some more if they lay an egg.
Puck drops tonight at 7:38PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet West. Game On!
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