The Oilers haven’t been over .500 in 18 months. It’s been a year and a half since the Oilers were 1 game over the mark in the lockout shortened 2013 season. Tonight they can get there and extend their current winning streak to 5 with a victory over the Nashville Predators. The pressure to win is great. Keeping the streak alive probably weighs heavily on a young team like the Oilers who are not used to sustained success. These next 2 games against Western opponents will be key to the team establishing where they belong in this conference. After these games the club heads out East and will continue to face a soft parade of Eastern teams.
FAYNE & MARINCIN
After the Habs game I took a quick look at the numbers and saw that Fayne and Marincin were being brutalized once again to the tune of roughly 30% Corsi For at Even Strength. This was a little disconcerting because Marincin was so good last season and Fayne was touted as a solid defenseman before he got here. Ideally you want to see that pairing pushing back even if they take on tough competition.
The thing is that I hadn’t recalled either of them playing poorly and a closer look at the numbers revealed the story. Fayne in particular had been big in blocking shots early in the game so I switched over to Fenwick (which does not include blocked shots). Additionally, the Canadiens only really came on after the 2nd goal against so I further narrowed the parameters to only while the game was close (within 1). Under those conditions the pairing crushed the Habs to the tune of 100% FF. There wasn’t a single shot that got by them while the game was really up in the air.
After the 2nd goal the two teams could not have gone in more different directions. The Oilers went into lead protection mode. The two teams were in lock-step with each other until that point, then after Yak’s goal it’s clear the team’s mindset and play changed completely. Montreal is a good team so it isn’t surprising that while playing against a young team trying to protect the lead they were out shooting and generating a lot of quality chances.
Fayne and Marincin with a 2 goal lead went from 100% FF down to 22.2% and 12.5% respectively. It’s a far cry from the 100% they rocked when the game was close. The Oilers are young and learning how to protect a lead isn’t something they have a lot of experience with. I suggest that if they want to hold onto those 3rd period leads they can turn their attention to the game after Yak’s goal. They cant implode like that on a regular basis.
Jen LC of Puck Daddy has a great article about Score Effects and that Oilers/Habs game HERE
BURNING THE YEAR
The second the puck drops tonight with Leon Draisaitl in the lineup the clock starts ticking on his Entry Level Contract. The alternative option would have been to send LD back to the WHL where he develops for the year and comes back to the Oilers to begin his ELC a year older, stronger, and wiser. The question of whether keeping him up is good asset management or not is an interesting thought experiment but it will stay just that for hockey reasons.
Draisaitl is not overwhelmed at the NHL level. He isn’t capable of taking on top opposition with heavy defensive zone starts but the Coach doesn’t need him to do that. He has been given a role and hasn’t looked out of place doing it. The kid is an NHL player and there’s not much else to it. The case to send him down to Jr isn’t really well supported right now because he isn’t failing. Additionally, the team’s best alternatives are lesser players than he is right now. I don’t particularly want to see Will Acton in the lineup for long stretches, Anton Lander is a broken man, and Bogdan Yakimov is best served developing in the AHL.
The Oilers have told the big German rookie he’s staying for now and he has taken up residence in the home of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. The arrangement is interesting though not unprecedented. For many lottery picks their first homes in the NHL belong to established stars or management. Wayne Gretzky stayed with the Sathers when he first got to Edmonton. At the 1984 Reunion Slats would say that he had a hard time getting Wayne out of the basement because he was hanging out with Sather’s kids. Gretzky would respond by saying he didn’t want to come up because Sather was such an [Expletive Deleted]. It got good laughs.
The Oilers didn’t go that route with Hall and Eberle, letting them live together as Rookies in the NHL. Stories from friends of friends aside, the two managed to survive the situation and their careers haven’t exactly been hampered because of it. RNH by all accounts is the quiet one in the group and the team could do worse than setting the two up with bunk beds.
There will be several benefits for Draisaitl under this arrangement, namely being around someone who understands the pressures of being a high draft pick, of being a center, and being a famous young man in a hockey city. For Ryan Nugent-Hopkins the benefits are even better. The house will finally have someone in it who can open pickle jars, buy beer without getting carded, and check under the bed for monsters.
LINEUP
Hendricks and Nikitin are banged up. Nikitin is getting an MRI on his back because apparently the ankle bone is connected to the back bone. Hendricks took a nasty fall after being hit from behind (no call) and didn’t skate yesterday. I expect Hunt will still be in and Acton might take Hendrick’s spot if it’s decided he cant go.
Hall RNH Eberle Purcell Draisaitl Perron Pouliot Arco Yak Hendricks (?) Gordon Joensuu
Ference Petry Hunt Schultz Marincin Fayne
Scrivens
OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME
1) You Don’t Shea. You might have heard of him before, Shea Weber. He averages 28 minutes a night for the Preds which, if my math is right, is actually a whole lot. There’s no matching up lines away from him. Trying to do that will only result in extremely reduced minutes. As the LW we should expect to see Hall battle one of the premiere Defensemen in the league every single shift tonight.
2) Pekka Powered. The Preds have been getting stellar goaltending from Pekka Rinne. He has a .932 sv% so far this season but his last outing wasn’t particularly stellar and he’ll want to rebound from it and shut the door. If the Oilers can pierce the armor they would be able to hand Rinne his 100th career loss, a milestone I’m sure he wants to avoid tonight.
3) Breaking Goose Eggs. Perron and Gordon are the only two regular Oiler forwards who have yet to record a goal this season. That might not be so surprising for Gordon who is best known for his work in the defensive zone, but for Perron it probably weighs heavily. Luckily the team is winning without his input but they need him to pot a few. His line is actually getting a fair amount of offensive zone time so I think it’s only a matter of time, and tonight would be the perfect time to kick it all off.
Puck drops tonight at 8:08PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet One. Game On!
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