I will post Friday's lineup with my views tomorrow, as I know jimbo already listed and many of you have weighed in who you will be watching closely. The main player everyone will be watching and has drawn the most coverage and commentary is Anthony Duclair. I will reiterate some of my views that I posted today in the comments below. Then, Pat Leonard did a great summary of the options with Duclair, focusing on the ELC, which was posted in the comments, but I wanted to run it below.
My quick view on the Duclair situation: where is the downside risk of having break camp with the team, beyond the 50+ contracts situation (see point #2 by Leonard below)? His ELC means the year is burned anyway, in terms of contract (see #4 below). He has shown enough in camp, regardless of the view on the level of competition. Duclair has obviously played well enough in camp, beyond the pre-season games, to warrant a spot. Goals, regardless of the competition, are goals, so you can't discount them totally because they are pre-season but I am sure AV and Sather and management are aware that the games don't count and the competition is less so than in a regular season game.
If he opens the year with the team and fails to show anything, send him back to juniors (as he can't go to the AHL, seen in #1 below). There have been enough players who have jumped from juniors to the NHL lately, so he is not a trendsetter. Where he was picked matters little, as we have seen enough first rounders, just on this team flame out and/or not make it, with second and seventh round picks excelling. You guys know I call it as a I see it and don't have Rangers' blinders on, but I am struggling see why this would be a bad move in any regard.
In addition, based on the comments, re: chemistry, that is not something I worry about on this team. They showed that last year when their captain was dealt and did not miss a beat. Enough veteran presence that even if this was a possibility of an issue, it won't be.
With Derek Stepan out, can easily slide Duclair to a top-nine role. I say top-nine, not top-sic, because the first three lines are interchangable under AV. Duclair will be a wing on one of those three lines, until he proves he doesn't warrant being there. AV showed last year, merit earns time. If you earn it, you get it, if you don't, it's press box or minors, or in Duclair's case, back to juniors. None of us what will happen, but a sniper is a sniper, so it's a risk worth taking, especially since there is so little downside risk. There are players who can be dealt to get under 50 contracts, so that won't and shouldn't be an impediment to making the team. AV should pick the best 12, if Duclair is one, he should be in New York.
DUCLAIR SCENARIOS (posted by Pat Leonard)OK, so I briefly listed a couple main points about Duclair’s situation in my initial post, but reader response indicated to me that several people had different understandings of his situation, and that I probably hadn’t explained it well enough.
So here is my best attempt to explain what the Rangers are looking at contractually when they evaluate whether or not to keep Duclair on their regular season roster:
1. Duclair is 19 years old so he is not eligible to play in the AHL this season. If he is kept on the NHL roster, he cannot be sent back down to the Hartford Wolf Pack. He can only be sent back to his junior team. If he is sent to his junior team, whether during the preseason or the regular season, he most likely stays there for the rest of the season, because recalls from juniors are much more difficult – they may only be allowed to occur on an emergency basis, I believe.
2. If Duclair makes this season’s NHL roster at any point, even for one game, the Rangers have to cut a player under contract to remain at the 50-player limit for contracts. Duclair signed an entry-level deal with the Rangers on Jan. 2, 2014, but it is not officially on the books yet because he hasn’t turned pro. If he turns pro now, the Rangers would have 51 players under contract and would need to get rid of someone else to trim back to 50.
3. Duclair signed his three-year entry-level contract in January, but when he continued playing in juniors that season, his contract did what is called an “entry-level slide… for the 2013-14 season – everything moved back one year. So right now his three-year contract looks like this (2014-15 season is Year 1; 2015-16 season is Year 2; 2016-17 season is Year 3 - link is to Capgeek.com breakdown).
4. OK, so stay with me. This is where it gets confusing. Typically, Duclair’s contract would “slide… another full year ahead if he stayed in juniors this season, pushing the entire three-year deal back again. However, because Duclair did not sign until Jan. 2 – missing the Dec. 31, 2013 deadline – he does not get a second slide year. This means that no matter whether he plays in the NHL or juniors this season, Duclair will have only two years remaining on his entry-level deal after this season. He therefore will become eligible for restricted free agency in 2017 no matter what, without arbitration rights. It was reported that Duclair’s camp wanted it that way, which I don’t understand but will try to learn more about.
5. So we’ve established that Duclair’s contract will have only two years remaining on it after this season. That leaves two scenarios for this season: Duclair makes the team, the Rangers cut a player to stay at 50 contracts, and pay him for the first year of a three-year contract; OR, Duclair returns to juniors and the first year of this three-year deal disappears, the Rangers don’t need to cut a player, and the team doesn’t have to pay for it.
6. There is a way, however, that Duclair can make the Rangers roster but not force them to pay for that first contract year: Duclair can play in up to nine NHL games before returning to juniors without that Year One of the contract kicking in. The drawback of that, though, is that the team would have to cut a player to remain at the 50-player contract limit once Duclair played even one game.
This is my understanding. I hope you’re less confused, not more confused.