Over the past week a few more Canes lineup spots and depth roles have been filled. --Ron Hainsey has been re-signed for 3 years at an average salary of $2.8M/year filling 1 of (in my opinion) 2 potentially open top 4 D slots. --Nathan Gerbe has been re-signed for 2 years at an average salary of $1.75M/year. He will likely slot somewhere on the 2nd or 3rd line. --Chris Terry signed a 2-way deal that pays him the minimum at the NHL level and $300k at the AHL level.
I like all 3 signings. Ron Hainsey received a decent raise from the $2M that he made last season, but he mostly earned it and that contract was signed under odd circumstances with teams trying to squeeze under the cap and unable to spend at the end of the summer. He was a decent top 4 defenseman and the going rate for those can be closer to $4M/year. Of the few flyers that Canes GM Jim Rutherford took last summer, Gerbe was the one that panned out. Some Canes fans will grumble that he should not be in the top 6, but that is a problem with the Canes depth at forward last season and not Gerbe's play. He brought a consistent brand of energy on a nightly basis on a team that needed it too often and provided very respectable secondary scoring especially when you consider his role that including virtually no power play time. Chris Terry's $300k at the AHL is high, but I actually like it. It rewards a player who has been a good citizen in the Canes system and played well. It also sends the right message to veteran AHL players who become free agents that the Canes treat players right. Doing the right thing is good in my book, and the message it sends should help the Canes attract and retain depth players in the future.
These signings leave Jiri Tlusty, Brett Bellemore and Manny Malhotra as the 3 most prominent Canes unsigned free agents. As long as the raise is reasonable, I like Tlusty. He is a solid 2-way top 9 forward who is versatile and can play on any kind of line and has scoring upside. Sure you could upgrade, but with a couple bigger holes already open, I think he is a good mix of predictable play at a high enough level for the right price. I would expect Brett Bellemore to be back on a multi-year 1-way deal that he earned with his play last year. His limited track record and lack of offense should keep him affordable. It is harder to say what will happen with Manny Malhotra. I think he is a great fit as a role player, leadership presence and 4th-line center even if it is not every night. The question is whether he wants to stay or move on after a 2013-14 season that reestablished him as an NHL player.
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With the contract and roster updates put to bed, I move on to the bigger topic of this blog. What happens to Cam Ward (if anything) during the trade-busy draft meetings?
My best guess, in a word, is "nothing."
Here is why...
First, I think the Canes would be more than willing to trade Cam Ward for any kind of decent return. There is a chance he rebounds, but at this moment in time, he is an incredibly expensive #2 goalie who had a real rough 2013-14 on a team that could surely use the cash to fill a different hole or simply save some $ after 5 straight years with no playoff $.
So why then do I think we will likely still see the regular #30 in net when the Canes take to the ice for training camp? Very simply, it is the financials. Per CBA rules, the Canes can keep up to half of Ward's salary if they trade him. That would bring his cap hit down to $3.15M.
I think that number is a problem on both sides of any trade ledger.
From the Canes side, the biggest reason to trade Ward is cost savings. While the $3.15M that could be saved eating half of the contract is significant, it is a bit overstated. The Canes would then need to spend part of that to sign another backup. In theory, Justin Peters could re-sign and assume that role, but with Khudobin only 1 season deep as a starter, my hunch is that Canes GM Ron Francis would want to sign someone more proven. That probably means $1-1.2M for a replacement. If you take that number, the math says that the Canes ultimately save about $2M. That is decent money and nothing to sneeze at but a far cry from the $6.15M that the Canes ideally want to shed.
From a trading partner standpoint, a trade partner would have to give something up and then still pay $3.15M (cap hit) for a goalie looking for a bounce back. First, that is a fairly steep price especially when you consider that you are locked in for 2 years even if the 1st year does not work out. Second, since Cam Ward is a name player on many fans' backs in PNC Arena, the Canes need to get something in return. While you could make a case that a 5th round pick is a generous gift for taking on a risky and expensive goalie, it would be a PR nightmare for the team in Raleigh. So regardless of if it is fair or not, I think the Canes would need to push to get something in return or make the deal a couple players bigger to mask the fact that they had to give away a fan favorite for nothing.
Also in that vein, I think from a Canes standpoint it could actually make sense to keep Ward at least short term rather than giving him up for market value right now (eat $ and get little to nothing back). When you net it out, I think the choices are: --A: Keep Cam Ward as a backup. --B: Sign another backup and net $1.5-2M depending on how much new goalie costs.
Keeping Ward also retains upside on a possible rebound. If he gets off to a hot start and looks better starting a new season right about the same time a few teams hit goalie problems/injuries, just maybe he can be traded without eating so much salary.
Personally, I voted to trade Ward on December 2 (Read HERE) before it became in vogue and took an email and Twitter drubbing for it. But ironically as someone very very early on the "consider trading Ward" bandwagon, I am currently more inclined to keep him. The $ savings in the current sell low situation are not enough. I would rather gamble on the upside later and keep him as a backup versus trading him at a time where the savings is minimal anyway.
So am I certain that Cam Ward will stay in a Canes uniform? Not at all. I put it at 80/20 or maybe 70/30. And I do see scenarios whereby he could be dealt and would not be wildly surprised by it. So what are these scenarios? I think the biggest one is a case where the Canes can find a team with a similarly overpriced player relative to role who is a top 9 capable forward that needs goaltending help. In such a scenario, both teams swap overpriced contracts, unload players who do not match price/role and attempt to fill a hole in their roster in the process. You can bet that this is the first deal that Ron Francis will be shopping for and willing to make this week. My odds say he will not find it.
What say you Canes fans? Will Cam Ward be a Cane by this time next week? Would you be willing to eat the maximum half of his salary just to move on and save a modest $2M? Do you think that with a more regular offseason not recovering from a major injury that he will rebound in 2014-15 and play a part in dual threat in net that boosts the Canes to the playoffs?
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63
Go Canes!