With the season ending a few games short of what we all hoped, it's time to turn the page and now focus on 2014-15 and beyond. Two years ago, my blogs after the year were the Clash Edition: Should He Stay or Should He Go. Last year, I broke out the Top-20+ questions to get us through the off-season. I repeat the same below. What you will notice is that many of the names in the questions are similar to the prior year, and in some cases, the questions are very similar. The only real ground rule is that in the comments we stay on the question posed, unless something major breaks. If that does happen, I likely will post a blog on it, tying it to one of the questions, depending on applicability.
The year was a pretty magical one for the Rangers, based on the improbable run to the Finals. We all knew that regardless of when the year ended, due to decisions, and at times, the lack thereof, when it came to several players, difficult decisions loomed. That time has arrived and many critical calls have to be made that go across the gamut. There are restricted free agents (Brassard, Carcillo, Kreider, J. Moore and Zuccarello), there are unrestricted free agents (Boyle, Diaz, Falk, D. Moore, Pouliot and Stralman) and a buyout situation (Richards), totaling 10 players just for this season. Next year, as of right now, it doesn't get any easier, with restricted (Hagelin and Stepan) and unrestricted (St. Louis and Staal) free agents, though decisions hopefully will be made on some sooner rather than later.
Without further adieu, Here are my top 20, questions heading into to the offseason:
1. Will and should the Rangers use their final amnesty buyout on Brad Richards? 2. Did Brian Boyle price himself out of the Rangers budget with another fine playoff performance? Which is the real Brian Boyle, the one from the playoffs or regular season or are both pieces the true Boyle? 3. Can the Rangers afford not to bring back Anton Stralman? Are you willing to go six years at $4.5 mil per to keep him? 4. Mats Zuccarello was the Rangers best and most consistent forward all season, for how many years and at what amount do you re-sign him? 5. Do you offer Derick Brassard arbitration and go year-to-year or try and sign him to a longer-term deal? 6. With back-to-back playoff stinkers, can you place any reliance on Rick Nash? Based on the response, can he be part or a key component moving forward or does he need to be dealt? 7. Did we see enough from John Moore to believe he is scratching the surface and has room to grow? If so, what type of deal do you offer him now? 8. How good can Chris Kreider be and will his "defensive and hockey intelligence limitations" prevent him from reaching true sniper status? 9. With Marc Staal's deal expiring after next season, do you try and lock him up now? Did he show enough during the season and in the playoffs to view him as a top-three defenseman or will the eye injury always limit his upside future potential? 10. Did his playoff performance provide enough assurance that Derek Stepan is or can be a true #1 center? Does his lack of size and speed, especially when compared to Kopitar and Carter, solidify the view that the Rangers need to acquire a big, scoring center to fill that role? 11. Based on 10, does NY have to try and sign Paul Stastny? Trade for Jason Spezza or Eric Staal or Joe Thornton? Or acquire another "top" center to maximize the lineup talent? 11. How many years and how much money should the team offer Benoit Pouliot as an RFA? 12. What type of deal should they offer Dominic Moore? Would you go more than one year? 13. Should New York look to bring back either Justin Falk or Raphael Diaz? 14. If Daniel Carcillo would cost similar dollars to this year's contract, do you bring him back? Is Derek Dorsett alone, with no Carcillo back up, sufficient for the fourth line? 15. Should the Rangers look to extend Carl Hagelin now rather than waiting? Which was the real Hagelin, the one who struggled at times during the year or one who excelled in the playoffs? 16. Did Dan Girardi's struggles, especially against LA, make you worried that New York overpaid, either in years or dollars? 17. Can JT Miller be a regular on this team next year and in the future? Can Oscar Lindberg, Jesper Fast, Ryan Hagerty, Anthony Duclair or Dylan McIlrath earn a spot on next year's squad? 18. Do the Rangers have enough to win the Stanley Cup, even with making the right moves this offseason, or will the West always have the edge? 19. Which free agents would you target? 20. Who would you look to trade? One more for good measure. 21. Will GM Glen Sather return next year? Even if he will, should NY indicate Jeff Gorton is the future GM to avoid losing him?
Let's get it started with the first one: will and should the Rangers buyout Brad Richards.
On the face of it, it's an easy answer. But what is the fun in that. I will once again run what I wrote in 2011 when he signed, list the three questions I asked last year and provide answers based on this past season. That should be sufficient to provide enough evidence to make a call to support the one-word answer we all believe. When Richards signed, the title if my blog was: Oh Brad, I'm Glad. It's funny and interesting to look at back at what I wrote then and compare it to how the contract and the signing looks now. It shows that as much as we think we know at the time, hindsight is always 20-20 as the end result very rarely pans out how we think it will.
This is what I wrote on July 3, 2011: For all those hating on him coming to NY, I can understand your view. If the Rangers lost out, I too would be upset. But to now call him overrated, injury-prone, typical Rangers move of overpaying is so beyond the pale it's not even funny. Richards is a true #1 center with 716 points in 772 games. He is a Stanley Cup champion and Conn Smythe winner who had seven game-winning goals in TB championship run. In terms of injury-prone, Richards played every game his first six years. He had one major injury, a wrist injury, three years ago, but played 80 games in 2009-10 and after the concussion, he played the last 16 games and scored 14 points, including eight points in his last six games.
In terms of typical, overpaid, Rangers move, the Rangers went in wanting to give Richards an AAV between $6.5 and $7 million. They accomplished that with giving him $60 million over nine years. In addition, Richards took less from NY that elsewhere, as Calgary offered $4 mil more and Toronto possibly up to $10 mil more. However, Toronto, as is their want and pattern, refused to front-load the contract, which Richards as protection against possible salary rollbacks in the next CBA. Yes, the Rangers are paying $12m, $12m, $9m, $8.5m, $8.5m, $7m, $1m, $1m, $1m, and a total of $20mil over the next 12 months. Ehrhoff is getting $18 mil the first two years, and the amount of yelling over that one seems minimal compared to Richards, as the Rangers followed the pattern set by Ilya last year and Ehrhoff this year in constructing the deal. I am not delusional, as money was a critical factor, but Richards also chose NY because it is an Original Six team, in the East , with stable ownership along with his relationship with Torts. The one piece I disagree with is giving him a No Movement Clause for the duration of the deal.
The Rangers are clearly better with Richards. Jim Cerny did a great job of listing five reasons: 1) #1 center and can QB PP (major, major needs filled) 2) style of play complements Gabby (who is now on the spot as he has the center who can handle the puck, freeing up Gabby to do what he does best, find open spaces and shoot rather than carry the puck) 3) intangibles (played with Torts and mentor for younger players) 4) Stanley Cup Experience (key if Rangers can make a long run next year) 5) he wanted to be a Ranger (see reasons spelled out above)
Now, with the advent of three seasons having gone by, you can look at all the reasons listed and pick them apart. The second is no longer applicable while the fourth has lost its luster and need given the run the Rangers made this year to the Finals. The first, third and fifth will be covered below, but it's the first item that is a big component of the decision to be made. It's that one along with the contract, amnesty potential and recapture rules that likely will drive how the Rangers play this out.
These are three possible factors that could impact what the Rangers do on Richards. The first and third is the same as last year while the second has been slightly tweaked based on the coaching change:
Lack of Production:
In 2012-13, Richards had 66 points in 82 games, but came up with several big goals, including the one with .1 remaining against Phoenix and Game 7 versus Washington. While his overall numbers weren't great, they were passable and he still appeared to be filling the role of a top line center. In addition, Marian Gaborik did have 40+ goals, though not all of them were due to playing with Richards. Last, Richards did lead the Rangers with 15 points last postseason
Last year, Richards admitted in the post-season break up meetings that his conditioning was not where he wanted or needed it to be. The lack of training camp coupled with the delay in signing a CBA, during which Richards did not play overseas, both contributed to that lack of conditioning. This was something Torts was concerned about way back when the lockout ended, a view that was proven all too accurate. Richards, partially due to the aforementioned lack of playing time during the lockout, got to a slow start and it seemed to go downhill from there. He finished the season with 11 goals and 23 assists, though 11 of those points came in a six-game stretch to close the season. When the playoffs started, he had one goal in 10 games and saw his minutes diminish along with a drop to the fourth line.
This past year, Richards was given a "clean slate" as was everyone else by coach Alain Vigneault. He spent the offseason getting back into shape, which was evident in his performance during the season. Richards centered the "second" line, though that number depends on how you view the Stepan and Brassard lines. He finished the season with 20 points and 31 assists, while consistently manning the point on the power play, regardless of how much we screamed about it. Overall, it was a fairly successful regular season for Richards, especially off the heels of his nightmarish prior campaign. In addition, he had to know the specter of the buyout was always there, yet he was able to ignore it.
In the playoffs, Richards got off to a great start. In fact, if you asked a large swath of Rangers fans after that rounds, many may have changed their minds on the Rangers' buyout question. Unfortunately, that production level was unsustainable and his play dropped off precipitously. His lack of speed got further exposed the further the Rangers went while LA really made him look like a shell of his former self. I wrote late in the series, just like I did last year, that Richards should have been benched. Instead, he was moved to the fourth line, where he is ill-suited to play and adversely impacted his linemates.
I ask the same questions I did last year. "First, if his name wasn't Brad Richards and he wasn't making so much money, would anyone think he should have been in the lineup? Second, did anyone think he should be in the lineup? Look, I will admit I like Richards and always have but his production, or lack thereof, warranted his move to the fourth line, and at that point, warranted him being scratched. We all speak about accountability and how playing time should be earned. In this case, the move that is being made is the right one, as painful of a call as that might be."
In addition, where does Richards fit? Assuming you believe in Stepan on the first two lines and Brassard is brought back as the second or third line center, does Richards profile anymore as a top-line center? With the team needing to get bigger and stronger and faster, having him in that role likely makes little sense. If not, and we think he doesn't, can he play the fourth line? Even if he could, does paying a fourth line center $6.67 million a year make sense? The answer there too is no, especially seeing all the RFAs and UFA that NY needs to make calls on and that salary can be used to assist in that endeavor. If NY is unable to acquire a top-three center, either by FA or trade, moving on from Richards still makes sense from a cap perspective and may help drive what NY does with JT Miller, who some in the organization believe is ready to fill that role
Relationship with Vigneault:
The relationship between Torts and Richards hit rock bottom. What once was a symbiotic one, which aided Richards' decision to come to NY as a free agent, along of course with the contract he got. Torts said all the right things after he sat and demoted Richards, but it's clear that Richards and he were not on the same page. If Torts had returned, an already toxic relationship would have degenerated more.
Vigneault coming in was the best thing to happen to Richards. As noted above, he used the clean slate and off-season workout regimen, with Martin St. Louis, to come to camp in great shape and be a critical part of the team. AV used the locker room to police themselves, with Richards a main part of the leadership committee. That helped the team when they were down 3-1 to Pittsburgh and moving forward in the playoffs. In addition, Richards and St. Louis drew upon their experiences from winning the 2004 Cup to help the squad when they went through the playoffs and made the Finals. If he does go, while NY gained a lot of experience this year, if many RFAs and UFAs leave, it will leave a gap in the locker room, where losing Richards could be felt.
Buyout and Recapture Rules:
Because of the "cap advantage recapture rule," the Rangers would be facing hefty penalties in the event that Richards retires early. The rule penalizes teams for any cap advantage gained from a player whose salary exceeds his cap hit in a given year. New York front-loaded the contract, so Richards was paid $24 million in salary over the first two years of the deal and $33 million the first three seasons, including this past one, which comes with an annual cap hit of $6.66 million. The last three years of his deal, he is due to make $1 million annually.
Under the parameters of the rule, the Rangers would be charged with a penalty of $2.9667 million for the remaining five years of his deal if Richards retired in 2015, a penalty of $4.1667 million for the remaining four years of his deal if Richards retired in 2016, $5.66 million per season for the remaining two or three years of his deal if Richards were to retire in the offseason of 2017 ($17 million total) or 2018 ($11.332 million) and $17 million in 2019.
If the Rangers do buy out Richards, he would get $20.667 million, which would include an $8 million signing bonus over the next 12 years with a cap impact, especially in 201-17 ($4,722,222) and 2017-18, '18-'19 and '19-'20 ($6.722,222 annually). However, they can just one of their two remaining compliance buyouts, which as described by Cap Geek, is allowable because Richards, entered into his contract on or before Sept. 15, 2012, as per Transition Rule 53 of the 2013 NHL-NHLPA CBA. This would be the right course of action and while Jim Dolan would be on the hook for the aforementioned money, there would be no cap impact.
So what should the Rangers do? If this was the pre-current CBA, I could see the Rangers taking a chance and bringing Richards back because it would just mean money with no real future adverse impact, even if the regression continues. Richards is still a respected veteran and clubhouse leader and if he is amnestied, the view among many might be how the Rangers bought themselves out of another bad contract with little regard for the person and the player. However, the old CBA was then and this is now. Plus, the new NHL leaves little room for perceptions to dictate policy and actions, The risk of injury and possible retirement prior to the end of the contract, which would leave the Rangers in cap hell to 2020, make buying out Richards an almost no-brainer. The playoffs also showed that while he may have a bit left in the tank, the future regression will be stark and New York can't talk the risk of the cap charges. As such, he is not worth $6.67 million a year and that's the view the Rangers should make when making their call on Richards' future.
Here were my 2013 top 20 :
1. Should John Tortorella return as coach? 2. Will and should the Rangers buy out Brad Richards? 3. Henrik Lundqvist sign an extension with the Rangers, and can the Rangers allow him to heads into next year in the final year of his deal, especially given his non-committal response when asked if he will re-sign with the team? (Yes, I know Ek covered this but I have my own views and will cover this in a separate blog) 4. Was 2012-13, especially in the playoffs, an aberration for Rick Nash or is this what can be expected from him yearly? 5. With Marc Staal admitting his eye will never be 100 percent, due to the small muscle tear in it that impact the pressure in the eye, can you head into 2013 relying on him as a top-four defenseman? (see 11 below) 6. Which is the real Chris Kreider, the one who had solid contests in game 4 and 5 and payed well last postseason or the one who struggled during the regular season, earning a seat in the press box and demotion to the minors? If it's the first part of the sentence, do you view him as top-six material? 7. Is Derek Stepan a true #1 center? How many years and $ should he get as an RFA? 8. How many years and how much money should the team offer Ryan McDonagh as an RFA? 9. Should the Rangers look to bring back Ryane Clowe? If yes, for how many years and how much per year? Even if so, with Clowe and Dorsett, a the Rangers big enough to play the physical style they like? 10. Similar question for Carl Hagelin, or does he just get a bridge contract? In addition, can the Rangers win with him on the second line, or must he be on the third line? 11. Despite defensemen growth not being linear, is Michael Del Zotto a top-four defenseman? Even if so, should he be moved in an attempt to upgrade the position, including adding a righty d-man? 12. Mats Zuccarello energized the Rangers when he returned to the US, do you sign him for two or three years and at what $ amount? 13. As good as Dan Girardi is, given his contract, other needs and style of play, do you try and move him now before it gets too late? 14. Can JT Miller fill the third line center spot? 15. Which is the real Brian Boyle? The 2011-12 season, first three games against Ottawa and first round against Washington this year version or one that struggled the rest of the way? Can he be the fourth line center? 16. Is Darroll Powe brought back for depth? 17. Has Derick Brassard truly turned the corner and can he be relied upon as a second line center? Or was it a small sample size and fools gold? 18. Can Lindberg, Fast or McIlrath earn a spot on next year's squad? 19. Which free agents would you target? 20. Who would you look to trade? One more for good measure. 21. Due to his health concerns, will Glen Sather remain as the Rangers's GM? If not, can Jeff Gorton and Gord Clark handle the role as the team's leadership?
Now for a personal note and sappy part of the blog, similar to last season and which I partially alluded Sunday. Part of the reason why I handle the Rangers blog is selfish as you know I bleed Rangers blue. But a big part is the readers and commenters to the blog, otherwise known as all of you. The intelligent debates and conversations. The insightful comments and just the relationship built due to own common rooting interest help me when I have to write a criticism blog. Guys like Pete, Jimbo, Glen, Brian, slimtj, blueshirts4ever, aecliptic, TPC, cranford93, tomburton99, mrhatrick27, mdw7413, evitageN (and apologies if forgot anyone) etc have made it a pleasure to be the Rangers blogger. I thank you for all the support, comments and readership and hope I have repaid the favor with the daily blogs.