As part of an independent tracking this year, I have been taking a closer look at zone exit and zone entries for the Kings.
We introduced the project at the 9-game mark back about a month ago, which you can read right here
We now have a little more research, and a little more to chew on in regards to zone entry and exit success rates. We are up to the 20 game mark now, which was a good cut off to again re approach the numbers and see how things are shaping up.
Some things are not really surprising, some are. Again, we are focusing on zone exits as of today and some of the things pertaining to that. Zone entries will come on a later blog.
Here is a look at the raw data for zone entry success for the LA Kings forwards at even strength through 20 games:
Pretty straightforward stuff.
Nick Shore is furthering himself as a strong defensive centerman in the NHL, and that includes making sure he gets the puck out of his zone. In percentages, Shore is successful around 90% of the time at either passing or carrying the puck out of his own zone and into neutral ice. In raw numbers, he has failed to do this only 4 times out of the 40 attempted even strength opportunities. One of Nick Shore's best qualities is how he is available to his defensemen on outlets. Keep a close eye on Shore when the Kings are breaking out of the zone, because he often does a good solid job of making sure it happens with the right plays. He is currently leading the Kings in corsi for % at a 63%, and also leading the team in corsi against per 60 at a 35.97.
Here is a short GIF clip of Shore doing something that is often underappreciated in terms of puck management:
He didn't attempt the breakout. This, ironically, does not show up on Shore's numbers for zone exit percentages, however, it kind of does in a way. Instead of attempting a questionable pass up the boards to his wingers who were breaking up ice, Shore opts to turn back in his own zone and reset the play to Jamie McBain. This shows up in a way, because it does not come back to HURT his numbers. This very easily could have been a failed breakout, or just a pressured clear/dump into neutral ice. Instead, Shore hangs onto the puck, allows the defensive team to drop into the neutral zone, and then makes the safe reset to his defenseman who has a better opportunity to work the puck up ice. It is a great cognitive play from a young player like Shore. I am tracking puck management this year in order to see little things like that. If Shore fails at that play at the line, it could lead to chances by the opponent, goals against, corsi against, and extended zone time for both he, his linemates, and his defensive pair.
Here is another good look at Shore making himself available to defenseman Drew Doughty:
It is just an all around solid and responsible play from the centerman. He is certainly no master of the breakout, but he is certainly solid at playing responsible, low-risk hockey. His numbers in many regards reflect that so far.
On the flip side of things, we get the bottom end of things. The fourth line has been altogether bad in breaking the puck out of the zone. Nolan, by all accounts, is the Kings worst forward in terms of puck management. He only clears the zone via the pass 43.7% of the time. He is only successful at carrying it out 68% of the time. All in all, Nolan has had 41 attempts at getting the puck out of his defensive zone, and failed 17 times. (Let the cries for "MORE WEAL!" Be heard now.)
It should be noted that a "Failed" zone exit is registered on our tracking when it is purely on the decision making of the player. Players are not penalized for bouncing pucks that hit a stick, or 50-50 clearance plays/dumps. A failed clearance is considered a play in which the targeted player has full control and awareness of the puck and fails to make a good exit. If it is a suicide pass, it goes to the passer, if it is a deflected pass, it goes to the passer. With that in mind, the 4th line has been completely out of synch with their exits.
Surprise, surprise, they are the three worst forwards in corsi for %. Some of this, however, will have to relate to entry and how many attempts they put on net.
This brings up an interesting outlier in the corsi against/corsi for numbers in relation to zone exits.
Here is a brief rundown of the ranks of each player in terms of CF%, Corsi Against, and zone exit %.
As you can see, players generally fall within the same section, or similar section to their CA60 or CF% rankings. If you are bad at getting the puck out of your zone, it can reflect poorly on your corsi numbers.
However, there is still an element of unknown when looking at this. Carter and Toffoli are good examples. They do very well at exiting the zone, but they still have relatively low CA60 and CF% numbers. This is due largely to the somewhat cavalier style the trio of Lucic/Carter/Toffoli play. They are not stalwarts in their own zone, but are incredibly impactful offensive zone players. So altogether the correlation can become a bit skewed in that regard. Nevertheless, when Carter and Toffoli DO get the chance to clear the zone, they generally do so. Unless your name is Milan Lucic that is. However, every line can have a weak link, as long as it is not the puck on his stick on the breakout, things seem okay.
As far as defensemen go, it is as you would expect.
It just makes too much sense from top to bottom.
We use passing out percentage in this graph because carrying out is fairly situational. For the most part, if a defenseman is carrying the puck out of his zone, it's generally under low pressure circumstances where they will not be challenged.
For example, the Kings defensive core as a whole have carried the puck out of their zone a grand total of around 150 times this season at even strength. They have been stopped three times. Passing is more indicative of pressure plays where puck management and split second decisions become important. In that regard it goes right down the line of how you would generally rank the quality of Kings dmen. Doughty and Muzzin are clear No. 1 and No. 2, then you get a group of pretty even middle guys like McNabb, Martinez, and surprisingly Jamie McBain.
Also noteworthy overall, Brayden McNabb actually has the most attempted outlet passes on the team, not Doughty. McNabb had attempted 104 even strength outlet passes at the 20 game mark. Doughty falls in at third, behind Muzzin, with 86. However, Doughty has carried the puck out a staggering 59 times. Almost twice as much as the next closest Dman.
On the forward side of things, Trevor Lewis and Dustin Brown remain the Kings most active forwards in zone exit attempts with 101 each. Toffoli and Kopitar follow with 99 and 91 respectively.
It feels as though there is still a lot of untapped potential with this stat in evaluating how a player's puck management effects scoring chances and shot generation. However, we are still young in the season, and there still remains a gap on how much to weight exits and entries versus how much they impact corsi generation. So far though, aside from some outliers like Toffoli and Carter, if you are good at getting the puck out of your zone, it generally keeps your chances against low as well.
We will take a look at entry numbers in the coming days!
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