You can also follow my Canes yammering on Twitter @CanesandCoffee.
The path leading up to Hurricanes GM Ron Francis figuring out what to do with Eric Staal whose contract expires at the end of the 2015-16 season has been a busy one of late and has produced a bunch of relevant data.
Last summer, the Dallas Stars extended 31-year-old Jason Spezza for 4 years at $7.5M per year to keep him from becoming a free agent.
More recently, 24-year-old Ryan O’Reilly was signed for 7 years at $7.5M per year, and 31-year-old Ryan Kesler was signed for 6 years at $6.9Mper year. Columbus’ signing of restricted free agent Brandon Saad for 6 years at $6M per year and St. Louis’ re-signing of 23-year-old Vladimir Tarasenko for 8 years at $7.5M per year are not as directly comparable but are still numbers that might help set the range for Eric Staal.
Finally, in a similar boat to Eric Staal with contracts expiring next summer young franchise centers Steven Stamkos and Anze Kopitar are also up for new contracts.
So what does it all mean? Two things I think.
1) Even the low end of a “fair market value… for Eric Staal has risen. I think based on comparables that Staal I probably fairly valued at $7.5-8M as long as the term is reasonable for his age. That is on par with Spezza, Kesler and a couple young stars that signed this summer. It is also a single notch below the top tier of players like Toews, Kane, Crosby, Ovechkin, etc. But here’s the thing – 1st line franchise type centers are an incredibly rare commodity and a commodity that rarely becomes available in the free agent market. Does anyone really think that next summer’s free agent market will include Stamkos, Kopitar or anyone else roughly in Staal's category when it kicks off next July 1? I don't. So if a team like Toronto who will have plenty of cap room available wants to pin down a slot in its top 6 forwards for 4-5 years with a marquee player and name, might they overpay to the tune of $9.5M to make sure they get the only player like him available? It is very possible. So the shorter version is that I think a “fair… value for Eric Staal is $7.5-8M, but on the open market, I think that is only the minimum starting point for what could turn into a crazy bidding war.
2) That gets me to my second point. I think how Canes GM Ron Francis navigates this decision and process will be a huge measure of his ability to handle a complicated GM challenge that pulls together the full range of math/budget, people skill and process management and negotiation. The stakes are big and the salary cap and Staal's no-trade clause make things complicated. The spectrum of possibilities for how this ends is huge and for any one of the possible outcomes (re-sign, trade now, trade at trade deadline), the range of possible terms is big.
IF Eric Staal wants to stay, then I think Francis should re-sign him to a reasonable term/reasonable $ contract. Given the information above, you ask how it is possible to sign him to a reasonable deal? If he truly wants to stay, I think it is possible. I think the key is for Ron Francis to strongly put forward the current state of the Hurricanes franchise financially after six playoff misses with Eric Staal as the captain and at the same time make it clear how important Eric Staal is to the future of the franchise and that you want him to lead the team forward. You finish with pointing up at the rafters where #10, #2 and #17 hang and tell him that #12 should be the next number up there. At that point, I would put it on him to decide what he wants to do, and I would live with the result. This type of negotiation is complex and will take many steps. But when push comes to shove, I am looking for an answer from Eric Staal that says he truly wants to stay here and that he is willing to make it work at a discount. If I instead get the answer that says Eric Staal is willing to stay only if the Canes are willing to pay at or near what it takes to win him in an open bidding war, then I trade him, collect a ransom for him in trade and move on.
Shorter version: I want Eric Staal to continue leading the team if that is what he truly wants. If he is more of the mind to “want to consider all of my options… and “want to get paid maximum $… then that is not the commitment I want, and I move on.
When I wrote about this on April 23, I said I would be thrilled to sign Eric Staal for 4 years at $5.5M and fine with 4 years at $6M. Those numbers both seem low given what has happened so far this summer, but if his demands start creeping up to what is probably a fair 4-5 years at $8M, I strongly consider a bit of a bigger restart via trade. The Canes are light on top 6 forwards and just as light on players in the system who are likely to step into these roles in the next 1-2 years. Could Eric Staal yield two pretty good, younger roster forwards and a pick or prospect to boot all for a salary cost that is still less than what Eric Staal's upcoming salary? That is enticing.
If I had to take a wild guess, I think Eric Staal re-signs for 4-5 years at $7.5M which makes me grumble a little bit about him not taking a little more of a discount to help the organization but is still probably on the low end of what he gets if he tests the market next summer.
What say you Canes fans? How much do you think Eric Staal is worth on the open market next summer? How much would you pay him to remain in a Hurricanes uniform for the next 4-5 years? What do you think he could yield in trade? Do you agree that how this all sorts out will be big for Ron Francis and could significantly impact the direction of the team for the next 4-5 years?
Twitter=@CanesandCoffee
Go Canes!