Seems like we are so far away from a time in which the Kings were 0-3-0, the worst team in hockey, and on the verge of firing everyone who ever laid hands on the team stylistically.
It was somewhat predictable given the way they played in two of the three losses, but the Kings have turned it around and are currently on a five-game winning streak. Welcome back to the win column! Breathe a sigh of relief Darryl Sutter.
From a statistical point of view, it can be very difficult to see trends developing after only eight games. It is, however, not impossible. There are still some strange that are making players hard to predict. Dustin Brown still does not have a goal, but he is shooting at a career high 15.68 shots per 60 minutes. There is no way that keeps up.
Dustin Brown is ultimately a good place to start with that sort of thing. The new, svelte, Dustin Brown has been playing just around 17 minutes a night recently. He has been suited up with Anze Kopitar and Marian Gaborik, much to the dismay of at least one writer. Reason? The idea is that Kopitar and Gaborik are less effective with Brown on their wing. Brown carries the puck, he shoots the puck, which in turn means that other players do so less frequently. So far this season we actually do not have enough of a sample size with Kopitar and Gaborik WITHOUT Brown to see how it is working out.
However, Kopitar and Gaborik both have been extremely quiet to start the year. In particular, we are seeing some alarmingly low 5v5 individual corsi, shots, and fenwick numbers out of Kopitar thus far. Individual numbers are defined as the corsi, shots, and fenwick that the player generates PERSONALLY, not as a whole when they are on the ice. These numbers can be different from total corsi per 60 or fenwick per 60.
2013-14 - > 2014-15 - > 2015-16
Kopitar iCorsi 60
12.01 -> 9.85 -> 5.43
Kopitar iShots 60
7.18 -> 5.48 -> 2.72
Goals for per 60
2.874 -> 2.436 -> 1.630
Here are some nice things though. Opposing goals for are down from 2.33 to 2.19 and his Fenwick for percentage is at a lofty 60.8. Again, small samples on everything, but Kopitar has looked somewhat questionable to start the year. Some of these numbers will pick up, but in a contract year and on the wrong side of "Prime" statistically speaking this is not the greatest start for 11.
If it is any consolation, Marian Gaborik is also having trouble finding the net. However, is individual corsi and fenwick production is much higher than Kopitars, and actually above his career average. Is it the contract year that is weighing on 11? Is it simply offensive decline? Is it too soon to really worry about it?
Some of his offensive struggles may be starting with his zone exits and entries. In an individual project I have been conducting, we have been tracking zone entry and exit success and what type they are. Is it a carry out or a pass out? Is it a dump in? How many turnovers it the player generating?
With Kopitar, it has been a frustrating experiment at times.
The Kings No. 1 center is getting the puck into opposing zones only 53% of the time he attempts it at even strength. He had gone 3-for-6 on carry ins and 6-for-11 in pass-ins through the first five games of the year. Furthermore, he has struggled getting the puck OUT of his own zone as well. Kopitar holds just a 56.3% success rate at passing the puck out of the Kings end. He has gone 9-for-16 in that regard. Carrying the puck out has been his one strength, as he is 13-for-14.
To be fair to Kopitar, some of his forward mates have been bad at getting the puck out. Brown is just 1-for-7 in passing out of the zone, and 16-for-19 (84%) at carrying out. It is probably best to compare him to another Kings center though. Jeff Carter is only performing slightly better at exits, with a 62% success rate at leaving his zone via the pass, and an equal 92% carry out success rate. Slightly better than Kopitar on the pass, but still better.
That zone entry number is the troubling part. Kopitar was near 50 in both pass and carry-in plays to the opposing zone. Jeff Carter holds a 66% pass in rate, but his carry in rate has been scary. Carter is 15-for-18 carrying the puck in for a cool 83%. Compare that to Kopitar's 6-for-11, 54% success rate. When Carter wants to gain the zone, he does it.
The Kings play a 200-foot game, which can definitely put a strain on centers being able to generate offense. If the Kings best center can only gain the zone five out of every ten plays at even strength, that makes it equally difficult.
He had also committed 10 turnover in the first five games (6 neutral zone, 3 offensive zone, 1 defensive zone.), and dumped the puck in 10 times in five games.
There are a number of reasons why this difference in Kopitar/Carter exists. Different styles, different lines, different defensive matchups etc.
All are pretty relevant. Kopitar gets difficult competition, better defensive players, and does not have the benefit of Tyler Toffoli on his wing. Although, it should be noted that Brown has been a pretty effective carry-in player (18-for-23, 78%), although he opts to dump the puck a ridiculous amount (20 times over five games). Nevertheless, Kopitar's difficulty in gaining the zone may be one of the reasons he is seeing very low individual shot, corsi, and fenwick events. You figure that Carter is gaining the zone almost 4 out of 5 times, while Kopitar 2.5 out of 5 times. That is a lot of potential offensive plays at even strength a game generated by Kopitar, with an indeterminant amount of potential scoring chances that would follow.
Again, it is too early to really call anything given the small amount of games we have to work with in 2015-16. Given what we have, plus a simple eye test, Kopitar has looked a tough ineffective this season so far individually. All the peripheral numbers are pretty much similar to past seasons; zone starts, corsi for, PDO. Even his scoring chances for per 60 and shots for per 60 are similar. Essentially, it is very difficult to know what kind of year we are in for with 11. With talks on his contract stalling out, and rumors of money being in the range of Jonathan Toews, the Kings cannot afford to have him post another sub-70 point season. Kopitar is a fantastic player, capable of dominating games both defensively and offensively. We have yet to see that Kopitar come to the forefront in the early goings. Even on a shift to shift basis.
He is a streaky player, and this sleepy start may be reversed with a hot streak from his line that vaults him back into relevance. So far it has been a mixed bag.
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