Ek's note: We are thrilled to welcome aboard our new Carolina Hurricanes writer. Thomas Gidlow grew up in Niagara Falls, NY and has been an avid hockey fan since he was two years old. Originally a die-hard follower of the Buffalo Sabres, Thomas moved to the Raleigh, NC area in 1998 and immediately became a 'Caniac'. As a teen he dreamt of making it to the NHL as a General Manager. Through his adult years he's worked in several fields, including management, marketing, and social media promotion. He has written Canes related material for various outlets online. Thomas currently resides in Durham, NC with his fiance and his cat Stormy (named after the Hurricanes mascot).
Please enjoy this review of the Carolina Hurricanes through the first half of the 2015-16 season. The Canes entertain the Columbus Blue Jackets this evening at PNC Arena, and a preview of tonight's contest follows the review. Thank you very much for reading!
Carolina's 2015-16 Record: 16-18-7, 39 pts October: 5-6-0; November: 3-6-4; December: 8-5-1; January: 0-1-2
As is usually the case for the Carolina Hurricanes at the midway point of the regular season, a slow start gave way to a turnaround month that saw the club flirt with the .500 mark as 2015 came to a close.
The Canes had an opportunity to get within three points of the eight seed in the Eastern Conference with a win against the Edmonton Oilers this past Monday. Carolina earned a point in a 1-0 overtime loss but then followed it up with a 3-2 loss in regulation to the Vancouver Canucks on Wednesday.
With 41 games to go, the Hurricanes are five points and six teams away from a coveted wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. Goals For: 94 (25th); Shots For Per Game: 29.7 (16th); Shot Attempts For: 1918 (5th) (Net Shot Attempts: +249 (3rd); Shot Attempts %: 53.47 (4th))
Carolina's offense has puttered along at a stagnant 2.29 goals per game, ranking them 26th in the NHL. 24 of the 41 games played to date have been decided by one goal, with the Canes a respectable if not stellar 10-8-6 in such contests. That record left 22 points on the table, and with the Hurricanes just 5 points out of a playoff spot, it's easy to see how important their lack of timely scoring has been to their overall results.
Just three players are on pace for 20 or more goals at the halfway mark: Jeff Skinner (15), Justin Faulk (14), and Victor Rask (11). The quartet of Eric Staal, Jordan Staal, Kris Versteeg, and Elias Lindholm have combined for just 25 goals, pointing a bright red bullseye on where the majority of the scoring problems lie. There's just no excuse for such a lack of production from those expected to lead it, and its the main reason why Carolina hasn't been able to break away from the bottom third of the Eastern Conference.
With the Canes evolving into an excellent puck possession team under coach Bill Peters – the club ranks in the top 5 in most key Shot Attempt categories after 41 games – the lack of finishing ability has never been more apparent. Former GM Jim Rutherford's slow and painful dismantling of the remnants from the 2006 Stanley Cup team left a plethora of personnel not properly suited for today's NHL. Some of those remnants and decisions still plague this team, and those who watch Carolina with regularity have known it would only be a matter of time before current GM Ron Francis popped the hood and started tinkering with the offense ripped out the motor. That time is almost here.
Carolina's faceoff prowess has been a highlight. The Canes are winning just over 53% of their draws, tied with Arizona for tops in the league. But as Francis' new-look defense continues to mature and will only get better over time, the overall offensive situation is easily the most pressing area on his plate. The big question will be whether that process starts in February as the trade deadline nears, or in the coming offseason.
Goals Against: 113 (T-22nd); Shots Against Per Game: 26.0 (1st); Shot Attempts Against: 1669 (10th) Team defense is the area the Canes have improved the most over Peters' time behind the bench. In most defensive categories, the Hurricanes consistently rank as one of the better teams in the league. And they've done it with a unit that wasn't supposed to exist as it does today.
James Wisniewski's season-ending injury in the first game of the season put Carolina in a tough position right away. It pushed veterans such as John-Michael Liles and Ron Hainsey, along with youngsters like Noah Hanifin, into larger roles and created opportunity for Brett Pesce and Jaccob Slavin – arguably the two biggest surprises for the Hurricanes this season – to claim a permanent spot in the top 6.
Of course, Justin Faulk has not only grown into a capable #1 NHL defenseman, but he's become a staple for the rest of the Canes to follow. His work ethic, hustle, and never-quit attitude has rubbed off on the entire team and serves as the example of what Peters wants a Carolina Hurricane to be. His 12 power play goals – he hasn't scored one since December 12th, which tells you how impressive it is that he's only now been tied for the league lead in this category – have set him apart from a rising group of top young rearguards in the league.
Carolina's mobility on the backend has been the foundation for their transitional game, which is greatly improved over previous seasons. Making proper decisions with the puck, when to pinch, and when to dump and chase has given the Canes more opportunities in the offensive zone. Both Pesce and Slavin have played well above what their experience would suggest at this juncture of their careers, while Hanifin, who's been prone to mistakes an 18-year old NHL defenseman will make, has impressed with his speed and poise in pressure situations.
Though vastly improving in the past few weeks, the Hurricanes goaltending duo of Cam Ward and Eddie Lack has been an overall disappointment. Among goaltenders who've appeared in at least 14 games this season, Ward is 23rd in goals against average (2.45) and 42nd in save percentage (.903), while Lack sits 42nd (2.96) and 45th (.890) in those respective categories. These stats are unacceptable for an NHL netminding tandem and played a key role in the team's 8-12-4 start through November.
Power Play: 16.3% (T-27th); Penalty Kill: 79.4% (T-21st)
If not for the aforementioned Faulk's and his 12 power play goals through 41 games, the Canes would have the worst PP unit in the National Hockey League. Even with Faulk, they are only 3.6 percentage points ahead of the Calgary Flames for that dubious distinction and the light at the end of this tunnel is likely a long way off.
The core offensive struggles of this team stem from an ineffectual ability to generate sustainable opportunities with the man advantage. The Hurricanes have a systemic issue with making too many passes and look too often for the perfect play. The Canes take their share of shots, but it's matter of making those shots count by opening up shooting lanes first and driving to the net to create open points. There's far too little of this happening and despite Peters doing plenty of shuffling with different combinations of players, nothing seems to be working in this area.
The penalty kill has been resurgent over the past month, as the Canes have killed off 26 of their last 28 (93%) when shorthanded after an uneven start to the season put them near the bottom of the league. Carolina has been one of the most disciplined teams though, currently tied with the Flames and the Minnesota Wild for 2nd place in times shorthanded.
The Hurricanes have only given up 20 power play goals, good for a tie of 4th least in the NHL. 13 of those have come on the road on 47 man advantages (a paltry 72.3%), while only 7 have occurred at home on 48 times shorthanded (a much more respectable 85.4%). There is definitely some 'Jekyll and Hyde' going on here, but this is one area where Carolina is trending in the right direction. They will need it to continue to remain competitive in the East.
OUTLOOK: The next 41 games
The Canes have some tough sledding with ten games over the following 18 days. The next six contests are particularly daunting: a Friday/Saturday home and away pair against Columbus, a Tuesday home game against Pittsburgh, a Thursday road tilt at St. Louis, then back home for a Friday rematch against Vancouver with a Sunday matinee at Pittsburgh.
Carolina catches its breath with a few days before their next matchup against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Thursday, January 21st. They'll head home immediately after to prepare for a Friday, January 22nd game at PNC Arena against the New York Rangers, and close out January with a pair of home games against Calgary (1/24) and Chicago (1/26).
For the Hurricanes to tread water in the playoff race, they'll have to earn at least 12 of a possible 20 points in their remaining January games. That's roughly a 5-3-2 record, and although getting through that tough a stretch with 12 points would be an accomplishment, it only leaves 31 contests left to make up ground on the six teams between them and a playoff spot.
They say the measure of a team is how they fare when the pressure is on. For the Hurricanes, the next ten games could alter the future of this club for many years to come. It could decide the fate of Eric Staal, the Carolina captain and an unrestricted free agent on July 1st.
If the Canes are within a few points of the playoffs as February progresses, the type of return is likely more narrow as they will need to replace Staal's position in the lineup. If the Canes are more than ten points out with only a few weeks left before the trade deadline, it's more feasible to move a current roster player into Staal's slot and bring up a prospect from Charlotte for NHL exposure.
That doesn't preclude the possibility of re-signing Staal: he's made it no secret that he prefers to stay. But Carolina isn't going to invest a large slice of salary cap space on a 31-year old veteran of eleven NHL seasons who is suffering through his worst statistical performance since his rookie year.
Nothing is impossible. The Hurricanes have played well enough in stretches this season to show they can compete against any team in the league. Alas, we will know a lot more about this hockey club after their return match against the defending Stanley Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks, just 18 days from now.
Canes shuffle the Staals as the Blue Jackets come to town
Word from Bill Peters after the Hurricanes morning skate today is that both Eric and Jordan Staal will be lining up with Kris Versteeg, among other changes, as the Canes search for offense ahead of tonight's home tilt against the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Victor Rask (upper body) will be a game-time decision but is expected to play tonight. Nathan Gerbe is still a month or so away according to Peters, and Phil Di Guiseppe remains out indefinitely (upper body). James Wisniewski continues to heal up on long-term injured reserve (lower body). Brock McGinn and Michal Jordan are slated to be healthy extras.
The likely Carolina lines for this evening:
E Staal – J Staal – Versteeg Nordstrom – Rask – Lindholm Skinner – Nash – Terry Malone – McClement – Nestrasil
As usual the defense will likely rotate through pairings. At practice this morning, the D lined up as follows:
Hainsey – Faulk Liles – Pesce Hanifin – Slavin
Peters also stated that Cam Ward will be between the pipes tonight for the Canes.
UPDATE: Victor Rask was scratched with Brock McGinn taking his spot in the lineup. This prompted the Staals to slide back to their normal center spots on lines 1 and 2.
Thomas Gidlow