Here we sit, two weeks from the start of free agency and Steven Stamkos sits on the verge of becoming the biggest name to hit the open market in the salary cap era.
But how did we get here?
There's a reason players of the caliber of Stamkos don't hit the open market. Teams tend to lock up their stars to multi-year contract extensions, and generally that comes at the price of a high salary cap hit.
Yet, Stamkos is unsigned.
At the end of last summer, it was difficult to imagine that Stamkos would still be without an extension heading in to this summer. Many around Stamkos did not figure getting a new contract would be much of an issue.
Yet, Stamkos is unsigned.
There are plenty of theories as to why this is the case. I'll take a stab at trying to explain a few of them from my time around the team for the past 16 years.
Theory #1 - Stamkos does not want to be in Tampa or else he would have signed by now
This is completely false. Stamkos has said on numerous occasions that he wants to remain a member of this organization. He's spent eight years here. He really doesn't want to leave and there's no reason to take him at anything other than his word on this front, just as he said again following the end of the season.
"I hope to be back,'' he said. "We have unfinished business here. This group has been unbelievable; this city has been unbelievable for me. I can’t believe it’s been eight years already, time flies. (Victor Hedman) and I, since day one, you can finally the last couple of years see that light. We haven’t got there yet, but it’s there, it’s dangling right in front of us. When you start something you want to finish it, and I certainly hope that’s the case.''
Stamkos wants to stay.
Theory #2 - The team doesn't want Stamkos back
I don't really buy in to this one too much. How could the team not want back a player who has meant so much to the team, the franchise and the city in which he has played for since he was 18-year-old. He's a generational goal scorer who has worked hard at other facets of his game to become a more complete player. He has been better in faceoffs and was used as a primary penalty killer for a good portion of the second half of the season.
The team wants him to stay.
"It’s one of many priorities for us,'' general manager Steve Yzerman said following the season. "We have a number of players whose numbers are up. I’ve said all along we’d love to re-sign Stammer. It’s our hope to retain him and not have to change.''
So if he wants to stay and the team wants him to stay, why has there been no deal?
To be blunt, it's complicated when you start to dig below the surface to try to understand it all, even for the parties involved.
"Until you go through it and live through it and know from both sides of the spectrum where people are coming from, there is a lot of work to be done,'' Stamkos said. That’s something on both sides that can't be taken lightly, it’s a big decision for the organization and a big decision for the player.''
From the standpoint of team, let's examine the complications of the situation.
The Lightning have been one of the stronger teams the past two years. They have been that way because of a young roster. Eventually younger players that excel get raises. Some of them get big raises.
Tampa Bay is already a team that is at the salary cap ceiling. Not everybody can get paid to value unless they take a deal well under market value. Stamkos is a superstar in the league and the going rate of those type of players is around the $10 million mark, which is a significant cap hit in a time when the salary cap is remaining increasing at a small rate.
So Stamkos would likely have to take less than what he would get on the open market to fit in to the team's plan, something hinted at by Yzerman after the season.
"We have an idea of what we want to do and we’re going to do our best to get everyone to buy into what we’re trying to do and keep it together,'' Yzerman said.
So there's the indicator of the challenge in trying to keep the core together of this team.
Now, how about from the player's standpoint?
Stamkos said he wants to stay. He loves the area and who wouldn't want to be a superstar player in a market such as Tampa. The team is set up to contend for a Stanley Cup for years to come. As he said, the light is there for sustained success.
But that doesn't make it paradise.
Which position Stamkos plays does matter. It's not a deal breaker, but matters.
So much was made this season of whether he was going to play center or wing. His preference is to play center. Management and the coaching staff reportedly see his future on the wing.
Now, I'm not saying that any player should be coddled in any sense of the matter. But should a player of such as Stamkos be treated in a bit of a different manner? Should he be made to feel perhaps a bit more wanted and more comfortable? Players such as Stamkos tend to thrive in those circumstances, just as he did toward the end of the season when he was comfortable and producing.
So what exactly would his role be moving forward if he signed a contract to commit to the Lightning long term? Would the team be willing to commit to him in the same manner?
It's not a deal breaker, but it matters.
And yet, here we sit, no contract extension in hand for Stamkos less than two weeks from the start of free agency.
Will he sign or won't he?
It's complicated.
"I think for the people who are well informed about the situation and the business you see in a salary cap era, it’s tough,'' Stamkos said. "It’s tough to build teams, it’s tough to keep that team together especially when you have so many great young players who are on entry level deals who are going to get a raise. There are some tough decisions to be made, not only with this organization but with others around the league as well. I’m sure if both sides want to work something out, we’ll work something out.''
Time is running out.